How do you calculate the strength of a team?

[Newton-Heath]

I was wondering how you people calculate the strength of a team. What kind of stats do you use and how do you use them? Do you got any specific formula?

[PAULM03]

Re: How do you calculate the strength of a team? This is a huge subject. This was an excellent thread, heavy going in places but well worth sticking with: http://punterslounge.com/forum/showthread.php?t=12655&highlight=mr.onemore The stats you use are entirely up to you. But I would say the following process is fairly standard: 1. Decide which factors you think are important (e.g. form from last 6 games, goal difference etc.) 2. Get some historical data and look at how your factors have affected games in the past. 3. Use this to generate a relationship between your factors and each outcome 4. Apply it to future games and compare your predicted chances of a particular outsome with the bookies odds. If your system suggests there is a greater chance of a particular outcome than the bookies odds suggest then this selection would represent 'value'. This is by no means the only way, a simple way would be to look at the match previews and league table to generate your predicted chances. Good luck and hope you find a winner:ok

[Sir Puntalot]

Re: How do you calculate the strength of a team? Well I believe it has to be logical and as simplistic as possible, like anything if you go too deep, it just won't work imo. The ratings I use are good, and more importantly they can spot teams about to come out of a bad run etc.... It's just my opinion, but the thread above is just way too deep, keep things simple, and keep things logical. :ok

[PAULM03]

Re: How do you calculate the strength of a team?

Well I believe it has to be logical and as simplistic as possible, like anything if you go too deep, it just won't work imo. The ratings I use are good, and more importantly they can spot teams about to come out of a bad run etc.... It's just my opinion, but the thread above is just way too deep, keep things simple, and keep things logical. :ok

I agree it doesn't need to be complicated, the thread I mentioned isn't really that complicated just a bit more rigorous than most. I think it's essential though that whatever rating you come up with you need a way to translate a ratings comparison into home, draw and away probabilities. otherwise they only tell you what you already know, Chelsea are much better than sunderland for instance.

[Newton-Heath]

Re: How do you calculate the strength of a team? Could you tell me more about the ratings you use, Paul? I tried to read the link attached but as you both wrote, it's too deep.