NBA Sat. 7th

[TazaD]

Washington -4.5 League: 4-15-1 (3-17 this no...av. loss 11.8) any away dog [av. line +6.8] no rest off a 10+ ats loss as home 5+ fav, if total is 200+ [bost] 1-9-1 (Av. line +5.6...av. loss 14.5) for any total if opp is off a 15+ ats loss. Washington's defense has been terrible lately, but Boston's is worse!! The Celts give up 107.5 ppg on the road, and if you lose at home to Atlanta you're not going playing all that well!! NO @ Atlanta under 193.5 League: 1-10 under (-9.0) away 4- dog, no rest off a 10- ats win as home 5+ fav, if opp is off a 10+ ats win. [NO] 2-14 under (-8.2) off any rest if opp was 10+ ats away. (0-1 under this season; Min 89-90 Phil in OT!...total was 192.5) Not really sure where this total is coming from. NO av. just over 90 ppg on the road, and Atlanta aren't exactly scoring machines themselves (Av. 97.7 at home). Sure, neither team plays great defense, but it does seem like a lot of points. The first meeting this season (@ NO) was 95-92. The last 4 meetings @ Atlanta have gone 182 [total 191], 160 [188], 170 [176] & 167 [181]. Milwaukee @ Cleveland under 196 League: 2-12-1 under (av. total 190.5...av. score 184.0) home 5+ fav, 1 day off a 15+ ats loss as a home fav, if opp is also off a 15+ ats loss. [Cleve] Again, not really sure where this one is coming from. Cleveland play solid D at home (allow just 91.3 ppg) and have allowed 89.0 in their last 6. Only one of their last 8 home games has gone over this number. Milwaukee have put up some decent numbers on the road, but a lot of their games have been against poor defensive teams. These teams met 3 days ago @ Milwaukee for a 84-91 game. The Bucks don't respond well to no rest either, their games av. just 182.9 ppg with no rest. SA @ Phoenix over 194.5 League: 19-7 over (Av. total 191.4...av. score 197.9) away 4- fav, no rest off a 10- ats loss as home 5+ fav, if opp is off any ats win. [sA] 12-3 over(Av. total 197.0...av. score 206.7) if total is 190+ SA play their worst D with no rest, allowing 98.4 ppg. Phoenix are showing some signs of the Suns of old, topping 100 in all of their last 9 @ 110.5 ppg! The first meeting this season was 97-91, but the teams shot a combined 42.9%, 6/29 3's and SA missed 14 FT's (both teams shot just high 60% from the line) Both teams should see some scoring in this one.

[TazaD]

Re: NBA Sat. 7th Minnesota +7 There's some trends that suggest coming home as a big fav off an OT game is a good go-against...esp. in Dallas' case as they are just 1-6-2 (1-8 this no.) ats when playing with no rest this season. Dallas won the first meeting @ home by 7 exactly (102-95), but they simply shot better (50% - 41%)...Minni had a 16-5 edge on the offensive boards, and there was no difference at all in the points in the paint. (48-46) Given that both teams are shooting 44-45% over their last 5, this game should be very close all the way. Dallas hasn't beaten Minni by more than 7 @ home in their last 5 meetings also.