DC Posted July 30, 2006 Author Share Posted July 30, 2006 Re: Profitable Lay System Followers of this system may like to know what they're in for next month, so I thought I'd put up some statistics based on past data. (July has been a great month, and the system did make a profit every July for the last 9 years, barr 1) Here are the statistics for August, which don't look TOO bad. Flat 9 years worth of data. 6 winning August's, 1 broke even and 2 losing months, the worst of which was around 8 pts loss. On average over 27pts profit for the month of August, I'll settle for ANY profit!! Jumps Hardly any races at all due to the flat season taking precident. 3 losing months from 9, the worst being 24 pts loss. In 2001 though, there wasn't one winning horse throughout August. Fingers crossed that'll happen in 2006!! On average over 5pts profit for the month of August over the sticks. Every little helps. Thanks for the support guys, catch you later. Danny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted July 31, 2006 Author Share Posted July 31, 2006 Re: Profitable Lay System Mondays selections Southwell 4.45 Romil Star 5.15 Downland Yarmouth 5.00 Lysander's Quest Uttoxetter 7.15 Navarone 8.15 Hi Laurie 8.45 My Retreat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
traf Posted July 31, 2006 Share Posted July 31, 2006 Re: Profitable Lay System I'm going to jump on this as from August 1st. Please advise which is best: fixed liability or fixed stakes? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcgin Posted July 31, 2006 Share Posted July 31, 2006 Re: Profitable Lay System Please advise which is best: fixed liability or fixed stakes? :rollin Looks like I've opened a can of worms. I'll post a comparison when I get the chance (although data is limited as prices aren't posted for alot of the selections, and I'm too lazy to suss it out from different sources) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted July 31, 2006 Author Share Posted July 31, 2006 Re: Profitable Lay System Mondays results Southwell 4.45 Romil Star unp 4-1f 5.15 Downland no lay Yarmouth 5.00 Lysander's Quest won @ 7.8 :( Uttoxetter 7.15 Navarone PU 5-1jf 8.15 Hi Laurie PU 7-1 8.45 My Retreat 2nd 7-2f 4 / 5 Today -3pts Total +157.91pts July profit +31.6pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted August 1, 2006 Author Share Posted August 1, 2006 Re: Profitable Lay System Summary so far: January +39.66pts February (incomplete month) +20.75pts March +21.70pts April +20.90pts May +9.05pts June (incomplete month) +14.25pts July +31.60pts I shall be away for 1 week in August (20th-27th) Aug 1st Goodwood 4.25 Nawamees Beverley 3.30 Whistler / Beyond The Clouds 5.15 Red River Rebel Perth* 7.00 Incas / Tiyani / Sconced 8.00 Poor Tactics / True Temper 8.30 Lambrini Mist * 8 runners minimum Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgej Posted August 1, 2006 Share Posted August 1, 2006 Re: Profitable Lay System traf - as it's 1st August and you may be betting... I'd personally opt for fixed liability. Not knowing how much you'll win is not as scary as not knowing how much you'll lose. Don't forget to read the rules that Danny is using as not all the horses he flags up will meet his criteria. Still looking good Danny :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderfoot Posted August 1, 2006 Share Posted August 1, 2006 Re: Profitable Lay System Don't forget to read the rules that Danny is using as not all the horses he flags up will meet his criteria. Rules!!! Couldn't find any :\ , and with the Boss about it's a bit difficult to scan the 20 odd pages :tongue2 . Thought they might have been on the 1st page, but Danny states on that page that he won't post them up on the thread ...... but did scan some pages in the hope that he had :\ . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgej Posted August 1, 2006 Share Posted August 1, 2006 Re: Profitable Lay System Sorry thunder - didn't mean rules for the entire thing. I thnk the later posts are more relevent. Maybe Danny can confirm later. Post#225 Maximum lay price 20.00 (16-1SP) Post#239 If you want to follow the lays thats great but do remember that 1 big loser can wipe out a lot of profit, so make sure your bank is big enough to cope with 50 times your lay price. i.e if you wish to lay for £5 a horse then make sure you've at least £250 in your bank before you start. Post#241 No odds over 20.00 - you can also go below 10.00 and STILL make a profit if big prices scare you... Post#300 Gravity, in answer to your question, I don't like laying in races where there are 7 or less runners, statistically it doesn't make THAT much difference but races of 8 runners or more DO show a higher strike rate overall post#335 Jumps selections must have 8 or more runners (14-1 SP max price) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted August 1, 2006 Author Share Posted August 1, 2006 Re: Profitable Lay System Thanks for mentioning that George, nice to see you again BTW. Hope you're ok?! Yes, in short, I now lay nothing above 14-1SP, 14-1 is the maximum price I will lay before the off (usually 20.00 on Betfair) Jumps selections MUST have at least 8 runners Make sure you have at least 50 times you're unit fixed winning stake in your bank. To win 1pt, you must have a bank of 50pts, I prefer 100pts. I will hit a losing month at some point, that's for sure, but it's best to look at the overall picture whe times like this arrive. Good luck Danny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcgin Posted August 1, 2006 Share Posted August 1, 2006 Re: Profitable Lay System Well I churned some numbers there for 134 bets on pages 12 & 13 of the thread where prices were displayed (Mirjan to Danielles Lad). I assumed that the non decimal prices were SPs so added 5% to them to make it more realistic for what you could lay the horse at. For Fixed Liability (1pt liability/bet): 134 points staked 2.39 points profit 1.78% yield For fixed profit (1pt profit/bet): 1134 points staked :eek 7.95 points profit 0.70% yield Obviously this is just a small sample of the data, but I think it illustrates that fixed liability can be the better option. Why? Well if you up the stakes for the fixed liability to 9 pts/bet you end up with a similar amount of outlay as the fixed profit (1206) but a better profit (21.49). For any system its the yield that counts. Hope thats of use to people. I'll attach the spreadsheet so people can see if I've made any mistakes.conv_117.xls Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted August 1, 2006 Author Share Posted August 1, 2006 Re: Profitable Lay System Interesting stuff McGin, thanks for your input. For the sake of any complication I shall continue to post and lay to a fixed profit of 1pt. Infact I will take time to record all of July's results using the 2 different staking plans since I only need to check my Betfair account for prices matched. This will be done over the weekend at some point. Danny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted August 2, 2006 Author Share Posted August 2, 2006 Re: Profitable Lay System Aug 1st results Goodwood 4.25 Nawamees unp 14-1 Beverley 3.30 Whistler unp 12-1/ Beyond The Clouds no lay 5.15 Red River Rebel 2nd 6-1 (by a short head!) Perth* 7.00 Incas 3rd 10-1 / Tiyani 2nd 9-2 / Sconced unp 13-2 8.00 Poor Tactics unp 4-1f / True Temper 3rd 15-2 8.30 Lambrini Mist no lay 8 / 8 +7.6 +165.51 Aug +7.6pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted August 2, 2006 Author Share Posted August 2, 2006 Re: Profitable Lay System Aug 2nd Goodwood 2.05 Mersey Sound / Our Monogram / Almah 5.35 Matrial Witness Mussleburgh 3.25 Sawaah / Ballyhurry Newton Abbot (8 runners min.) 3.35 Master Rex / Golden Crusader Kempton 8.24 Establishment Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted August 2, 2006 Author Share Posted August 2, 2006 Re: Profitable Lay System Aug 2nd reults Goodwood 2.05 Mersey Sound unp 7-1 / Our Monogram unp 10-1 / Almah no lay 5.35 Matrial Witness last 9-1 Mussleburgh 3.25 Sawaah 2nd 3-1 / Ballyhurry NR Newton Abbot (8 runners min.) 3.35 Master Rex unp 2-1f :lol / Golden Crusader PU 6-1 Kempton 8.24 Establishment 3rd 7-1 7 / 7 +6.65 +172.16 Aug +14.25pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saxappeal Posted August 2, 2006 Share Posted August 2, 2006 Re: Profitable Lay System Nice going DC!! I am new in this world and I've started with your system on Betfair, and I am realy pleased. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted August 2, 2006 Author Share Posted August 2, 2006 Re: Profitable Lay System Ok i've calculated the July results from my own account and have to agree with McGin, Fixed liabilty is better than Fixed profit! Using 1pt fixed profit - 5% commission total liabilty was 1647 units, with a profit of 30.8pts (must've miscalculated - should be 31.6pts) showing a yield of 1.87% Adjusting the liabilty to 9pts -5% commission on any winners made the total outlay a similar amount - 1809 units, with a profit of 55.33pts and a yield of 3.06% Probably better shown in the attached graph, where the pink line is fixed liabilty, the blue line fixed profit.conv_118.xls Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcgin Posted August 2, 2006 Share Posted August 2, 2006 Re: Profitable Lay System Like the look of that graph DC :) Combine fixed liability with the kelly criterion now and you can reap the rewards! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted August 2, 2006 Share Posted August 2, 2006 Re: Profitable Lay System I am also using fixed liability and I laugh out loud when a 3-1 doesn't win, because I win big time when that happens. Great going, hope you keep it up for many months to come! My betting goal is to pay for my holidays in Norway next June (that's what I tell my wife when she complains that I'm always on the laptop going through graphs and foruns:tongue2 ). Good Luck Pinho Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted August 3, 2006 Author Share Posted August 3, 2006 Re: Profitable Lay System OK just a thought, I shall still post up the results as if winning 1pt profit for each succesful lay. It also makes it easier for the results as I don't have to trawl through my own accounts to put up prices for EVERY horse. I guess if you are going to follow a fixed liabilty of say 10pts liabilty for each lay then your starting bank should be 100-200pts to cover bad periods. Also it is vital that you get the best price for every horse, as 90% of the time you'll be wininng, and it will depend on how low your price was, whereas fixed profit only really matters 10% of the time when you lose. Does this make sense? Today's qualifiers will be going up at lunch time (1pm), had no time last night or this morning. Fingers crossed for another 100% day... oh and :welcome Saxappeal! Enjoy your stay here! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted August 3, 2006 Share Posted August 3, 2006 Re: Profitable Lay System Also it is vital that you get the best price for every horse, as 90% of the time you'll be wininng, and it will depend on how low your price was, whereas fixed profit only really matters 10% of the time when you lose. Does this make sense? I suppose with fixed profit you also have to catch the best prices, because you cannot tell on which horses you will lose :) . But it will make a big difference in the long run to accept any prices with fixed liability, of course you are right. Hope you have a month of August just like in 2001! Best wishes Pinho Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted August 3, 2006 Author Share Posted August 3, 2006 Re: Profitable Lay System Aug 3rd Goodwood 5.35 Bond Boy / Nautical / Blackheath / Pomfret Lad Stratford - 8 runners min. 3.25 Faddad / Father Tom 4.35 Pure Brief Carlisle 3.05 Donna's Double / Scotty's future Epsom 5.55 Burgundy Muss 6.10 Cumbrian Knight / Regency Red / Orangino 8.10 True Night 8.40 Sharp Hat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dai Posted August 3, 2006 Share Posted August 3, 2006 Re: Profitable Lay System I have a couple of questions if thats OK: - Im new to this laying stuff, so am a little confused with this quote, "14-1 is the maximum price I will lay before the off (usually 20.00 on Betfair)". My impression was that if youre laying something for 20.00, then that horse has a much bigger price than 14-1? I thought laying at 20.00 would equate to a backing price of 18-1? - Seems like theres a strong case for fixed liability, would the recommendation now be to do this method? - Is there ever a time when its wiser to lay well before the off, or are lay prices always better the nearer to race time you are? Once again, Ive been doing this method for a while, and its provided some nice returns, so thanks again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted August 3, 2006 Author Share Posted August 3, 2006 Re: Profitable Lay System Hi Dai 1. 14-1 horses do go off higher than 20.00 occasionally. Look for yourself, open up a Betfair market and a live show from Sporting odds and see the difference in price as the odds get higher. Even money horses tend to be around the same price on Betfair 2.1 - 2.2 in my experience. 5-1 shots may be 1/2 a point or a full point better on Betfair whereas 50-1 horses go off double this price usually!!! 2. It's up to you what staking-plan you use. I'm happy to post up the lays, you can decide how to lay them. My results will always be to fixed profits of 1 unit. 3. I would always lay as near to the off as possible. I've laid horses at 9.00 2-3 hours before the off, only to see them trading at half this price before the off. Unless you have access to a machine all day so you can judge whether or not the horse will drift out, should you lay early. Thanks for your comments Danny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted August 3, 2006 Author Share Posted August 3, 2006 Re: Profitable Lay System Aug 3rd results - great day! Goodwood 5.35 Bond Boy unp 12-1 / Nautical unp 14-1 / Blackheath unp 14-1 / Pomfret Lad no lay Stratford 3.25 Faddad unp 3-1 / Father Tom 3rd 7-4f :lol 4.35 Pure Brief unp 13-2 Carlisle 3.05 Donna's Double unp 8-1 / Scotty's future 3rd 12-1 Epsom 5.55 Burgundy 2nd 11-2 Muss 6.10 Cumbrian Knight unp 7-1 / Regency Red 3rd 7-1 / Orangino no lay 8.10 True Night no lay 8.40 Sharp Hat unp 8-1 12 / 12 :dude +11.4 +183.56 Aug +25.65pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted August 4, 2006 Author Share Posted August 4, 2006 Re: Profitable Lay System Here are today's on time for once :ok Aug 4th Goodwood 5.00 Idle Power Thirsk 3.05 Mystic Man / Bond Diamond Bangor NO LAYS Newmarket 7.25 Goodenough Mover 8.25 Kareeb / Ali D Nottingham 8.40 Certain Justice Cheers Danny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderfoot Posted August 4, 2006 Share Posted August 4, 2006 Re: Profitable Lay System Think I might give this a go today with Fixed Liability, because of the high odds involved. Rules look simple enough: Use DC's selections. Don't LAY over 20.00. Race must have 8 runners or more.Sorry to all those that have been following this, but you're in for a losing day today .......;) :lol . Edit: One query, do you use the 15.00 BACK odds or the 20.00 LAY odds as the trigger for firing in bets. i.e. if it's 15.00 BACK & 22.00 LAY would you bet, similarly, if it's 18.00 BACK & 20.00 LAY would you bet? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
traderpaul Posted August 4, 2006 Share Posted August 4, 2006 Re: Profitable Lay System thunderfoot According to Danny, the 8 runners or more rule only applies to the jumpers, not the flats. Paul Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saxappeal Posted August 4, 2006 Share Posted August 4, 2006 Re: Profitable Lay System Nice system :clap Keep on going Danny :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderfoot Posted August 4, 2006 Share Posted August 4, 2006 Re: Profitable Lay System :cow :nana .... say's it all!!:D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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