EPL 1-0 Home Wins

[davidc]

Following up on Meatmans successful French Championat 1-0 Home Wins system I was checking to see if any other leagues could provide a similar system. The stats for the last 5 years are not very promising (see below) and I have included the stats for France for comparison. However when I checked this years results for the Premier League the stats are more favourable with 15.25% home 1-0 wins. Now I don't know if this is a temporary blip in the stats or if the trend will continue but I have decided to give it a go anyway. I have decided to have one refinement to the system as there appears to be a disparity in the distribution with 17 of the 27 1-0 wins coming from teams that are currently in the top half of the table so for teams in the top half I will stake 10 point and for teams in the bottom half I will stake 5 points. This has not been back checked to see if these teams were in fact in the top half when they had their 1-0 wins but as most of the teams currently in the top half have been there for a good proportion of the season then I think it is reasonable to go ahead. Starting bank 1000 points and bookies/prices to be used will be taken from Bestbetting. For any bets placed with Betfair I will assume 5% commission. Any comments or suggestions appreciated. France 1 - 0 Under 2.5 2004 - 2005 - 15.2% 64.5% 2003 - 2004 - 12.3% 60.2% 2002 - 2003 - 17.1% 63.0% 2001 - 2002 - 13.3% 56.9% 2000 - 2001 - 17.3% 56.5% 5Yr Ave - 14.04% 60.22% Italy 2004 - 2005 - 13.4% 53.9% 2003 - 2004 - 8.8% 48.4% 2002 - 2003 - 10.4% 49.7% 2001 - 2002 - 10.7% 50.1% 2000 - 2001 - 9.8% 47.7% 5Yr Ave - 10.62% 49.96% Spain 2004 - 2005 - 14.4% 51.8% 2003 - 2004 - 11.0% 51.8% 2002 - 2003 - 10.5% 50.0% 2001 - 2002 - 9.4% 53.0% 2000 - 2001 - 10.0% 48.9% 5Yr Ave - 11.06% 51.1% Germany 2004 - 2005 - 8.8% 41.2% 2003 - 2004 - 11.1% 43.3% 2002 - 2003 - 9.8% 48.7% 2001 - 2002 - 7.8% 45.0% 2000 - 2001 - 9.1% 36.4% 5Yr Ave - 9.32% 42.92% England 2004 - 2005 - 11.3% 54.4% 2003 - 2004 - 9.2% 49.5% 2002 - 2003 - 12.8% 51.0% 2001 - 2002 - 9.4% 52.3% 2000 - 2001 - 10.5% 51.1% 5Yr Ave - 10.64% 51.68% 1-0 home win distribution up to and including 26/12/05 177 games 27 @ 1-0 = 15.25% Chelsea 3 Manchester United 2 FC Liverpool 2 Tottenham Hotspur 1 Bolton Wanderers 2 Wigan Athletic 3 Arsenal 2 Manchester City 0 West Ham United 1 Newcastle United 3 Blackburn Rovers 0 Charlton Athletic 1 Middlesbrough 0 Aston Villa 2 Fulham United 1 Everton FC 2 West Bromwich Albion 0 Portsmouth 1 Birmingham City 1 Sunderland 0

[davidc]

Re: EPL 1-0 Home Wins Bets for 28th December 2005: Arsenal 8.0 for 10 points @ VC Bet Birmingham 23.0 for 5 points @ Betfair Blackburn 7.0 for 5 points @ Stan James Bolton 7.0 for 10 points @ Stan James Everton 12.0 for 5 points @ Betfair Fulham 8.0 for 5 points @ Stan James Man City 16.5 for 10 points @ Betfair Newcastle 7.0 for 10 points @ Stan James West Brom 10.5 for 5 ponts @ Betfair West Ham 8.0 for 10 points @ Stan James Starting bank 1000 points Staked 75 points Current bank 925 points.