chunster Posted December 19, 2005 Share Posted December 19, 2005 Hi. Need some help please. I'm interested in betting "In Play" - primarily on football - but need some guidance on strategies to adopt. I have looked around "PL" but haven't found anything up to now. If the information does exist then could someone direct me to it please. Also, let me know if this is the wrong place to post a request of this sort. Alternativley, if anyone has any ideas for strategies to adopt then i would be really interested. Cheers in advance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted December 19, 2005 Share Posted December 19, 2005 Re: Exchanges - Betting In Play :welcome chunster, What is it about in-play that you find interesting ? What's the attraction ? That would be the core of any strategy you develop or apply. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chunster Posted December 19, 2005 Author Share Posted December 19, 2005 Re: Exchanges - Betting In Play I'm interested because it gives you the chance to make changes to your position, ie to extract yourself from holes, or to enhance the position that your in. Thing is you need some sort of strategy before you dive in to any particular game. One example provided by Betfair, is regarding a game that you expect to be very tight and low scoring, certainly in the first half. This allows you to "Back" the initial "Draw" odds when high, and then later in the game to "Lay" the "Draw" odds when they are lower. Giving you a guaranteed profit in any event. Not all "In Play" games fit this particular criteria. So there must be other starting strategies, depending upon who is playing, and what the expected outcome might be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brael Posted December 22, 2005 Share Posted December 22, 2005 Re: Exchanges - Betting In Play :welcome Chunster! Have you had a look at any of the recent articles in 'Inside Edge'? They may be of some use. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skin8 Posted December 22, 2005 Share Posted December 22, 2005 Re: Exchanges - Betting In Play I see that somebody was ahead of me , I wanted some tips on Betfair In-Play as well :ok Anyway...I'm intersted in Laying 0-0 before a match ...wich is risky (i know that)...cuz of high liability. But...lets say around the 80 min its still 0-0...what if at this point I back 0-0 ? Or back under 2.5 ? Or Lay "3 goals or more" ? Other suggestions? Does it make any sense ? I'm looking for a method that I wouldnt lose a big sum cuz of the liability. Best, A rookie :beer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgej Posted December 22, 2005 Share Posted December 22, 2005 Re: Exchanges - Betting In Play you can lay at about 1.08 for 0-0 games pre match after 80 min that might have gone up to about 2.4 So it would be better to lay first, then back to ensure you don't lose your initial stake. But the rarity of 0-0 predictions being right makes it risky. The 0-0 odds don't really move much until after half time though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skin8 Posted December 22, 2005 Share Posted December 22, 2005 Re: Exchanges - Betting In Play I think you're talking about backing "1 or more goals" at that odds 1.06-1.08. right? But I was talking about Laying 0-0. I guess its almost the same... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted December 22, 2005 Share Posted December 22, 2005 Re: Exchanges - Betting In Play :welcome skin8. I have to admit that there isn't too much on the PL at the moment about specific Betfair trading on the in play 0-0 lay. I have made a couple of posts in various threads ....and you can make a profit from the 0-0 lay...and also a loss, like any form of betting strategy. For example, yesterday I backed the draw in the Doncaster v Arsenal match, which is, obviously different from the 0-0 lay, but works on the same principal of market price movement, in running. Expecting a surprise result, I backed the draw, pre match, at 4.5, and as soon as the Doncaster goal was scored in the 4th minute, the lay price for the draw dropped to 3.45, as punters expected the draw result more likely than the expected Arsenal win. I layed my original bet, all of the 3 possible results 'greened up', guaranteeing me a profit of £5 for a Donc. win, or £5 for an Arsen. win, or £8.80 for the draw. A working illustration of the 0-0 lay is Danny Cash's excellent 'one goal will do' thread in the systems and strategy forum, which I strongly suggest you take a look at. It's really up to you to visit other websites, including inside edge, who have covered this subject at www.inside-edge-mag.co.uk Try other betting exchanges such as Betdaq and Betfair, they have info pages. You can make a decent profit from this bet, but you have to know your football, teams, stats, sequences, etc. Why not do a trial 'paper' run first of all, noting the way the market prices respond to changes in play, during a live televised match. GL. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skin8 Posted December 22, 2005 Share Posted December 22, 2005 Re: Exchanges - Betting In Play Spreadman...:cheers Thanx for the lengthy reply...and right now I'm doing paper bets on 2 matches. About researching , its only obvious , I usually research for an Over and if it fits...my guess is that 1 goal is very logical to happen in the particular match. Also some leagues are proned to scoring (Germany for ex). Now my initial thought was to place a Lay 0-0 bet on a match that due to research should be a an Over. The bet is placed before the match starts. And if until the 80 minute or so its still 0-0...then I'm in trouble...so I thought backing In-Play at that period of time (80 minutes) the 0-0. Makes sense ? Best Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted December 22, 2005 Share Posted December 22, 2005 Re: Exchanges - Betting In Play skin8: As an example you might be able to lay 0-0 for around 10.0 before kick-off but after 80 minutes play if the score is still 0-0 then the price to back would probably be around 1.5. This is just a rough guess and obviously the market for each game can vary significantly but if you go ahead with this strategy at these prices you will be in trouble unless your strike rate is 85% or better. Lets assume that before kick-off you lay at 10.0 for a liability of £200 to return £222.22 before commission. The score after 80 minutes is 0-0 and you decide to try to cover your lay and back £150 with the price at 1.5 to return £225 before commission. If the match finishes 0-0 you will lose £127.78; if the match finishes with any other score you will lose £125. If you can get a better price of for instance 2.0 for your cover bet then you would need to back for £110 to return £220. This would minimize your loses (0-0 = minus £87.78, any other score = minus £90) and reduce your required strike rate to around 81% Good luck! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skin8 Posted December 24, 2005 Share Posted December 24, 2005 Re: Exchanges - Betting In Play hmmm.... Still got to be a better way to secure some profit or at least less loss if the match is 0-0 after 80 minutes of play... I guess backing the Under at this point is also too much to stake. thoughts ? :gimme Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chunster Posted January 4, 2006 Author Share Posted January 4, 2006 Re: Exchanges - Betting In Play Hi all I know i started the thread, but since forgot my user name - misspelt it in the first place - so couldn't log in. In the first instance i saw something provided by Betfair itself (their own mailshot). This i used on two occasions, and it flaming well worked, was up at least a couple of hundred quid. Then guess what, all went pear shaped, and the next couple of games went the oppositre way, and i'm in sh*t street again. Lesson learnt, one method doesn't work in all cases. As someone has said already, you need to learn yourself, and although expensive its a lesson well learnt. So (repeating someone else), guestimate what you think will happen in the game, and come up with a strategy that suites. I'd love this to be simply a brain-storming session, so any methodologies, could be chucked into the melting pot. I, if no-one else would apprciate it. Cheers to all. Will try to remember my username from this point on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chunster Posted January 4, 2006 Author Share Posted January 4, 2006 Re: Exchanges - Betting In Play Just subscribed to "Inside-Edge" and awaiting my first copy. Does anyone know can you obtain back-copies, as i would love to see what they say regarding Betfair strategies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted January 4, 2006 Share Posted January 4, 2006 Re: Exchanges - Betting In Play I do a few in runnig bets from time to time, but it is very risky. If a outcome i've bet is winning late in the match, i may lay it off to protect my inital stake. I notice that prices on the draw fall rapidly between 75 & 85 minutes. Example yesterday, I backed the Man Utd / Arse game as a draw after 70 minutes @ 1.86, I watched the price on the draw drop to 1.2 at 85 minutes, where I laid them off for my orginal stake. In effect removing any potential loss, and giving myself a free bet at 1.65. This sounds ok, but it was a very risky trade, in another match last year the following happened to me. I placed the same draw bet around 70 mins for 1 pts @ 1.75. then a goal was scored just after I placed my first bet, price on a draw shot up to 3.5. I now have an option do I lay the draw for half my inital stake, and lock in a 50% loss, or do I attempt to trade my way out of it ?? While you hesitate the price is moving against you. I decided to place a bet on the team that had just scored to win, another 2pt at 1.75. Giving me a .5pt profit overall if they win. Second team equalises on 80 mins, I'm now looking at a 1.25pt loss cause it's a draw. So I pile on another 3 pts on the draw, this time @1.45. I now expect a profit of just 0.1pts, and I now have 6 pts staked. My expect profit to stake is tiny. Market is suspended at 90 mins, the second team scored a 94th min pen, and I lose my entire 6pts (6pts is about a weeks wages btw). Now I'd never chase the book like this, far too risky. Even if I'd came good it would have been luck not skill. My other concern about in running trading is that it limits your profits from winning bets, and doesn't really reduce the losses from losers. This is true in soccer at least where you have 3 outcomes. Only time where I can see inrunning as worthwhile is events with just 2 outcomes, like darts, tennis or snooker. Covering 3 outcomes with the draw over complicates things far too much. Rambling a bit now, good luck anyway Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted January 4, 2006 Share Posted January 4, 2006 Re: Exchanges - Betting In Play Hi, Skin8, er...., I mean, Chunster........ :loon The INSIDE EDGE Back Issue bureau is at Tel: 01789 490215. Most of the recent issues have dealt with various betting exchange issues and 'systems', including an article on a student who worked the exchanges, like me, and made thousands, .............not like me......:\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chunster Posted January 5, 2006 Author Share Posted January 5, 2006 Re: Exchanges - Betting In Play Cheers for that. I subscribed mid December, and i think i should get my first copy about the 8th of this month. Hopefully, they will have some current article on strategies. If i ring the number provided, they might simply recommend all copies with any reference to exchanges (being a cynic i know). Better way might be if you could tell me appropriate issue numbers - sorry to be a pain. Regarding the above replies to main thread - is there any merit in doing a dripping tap type approach. All the responces seem to imply a single Back or Lay, followed by another single Back or Lay (the opposite of the first). Someone mentioned trading out of a positition - sorry if i have said the same thing above. But i have limited knowledge of trading. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chunster Posted January 5, 2006 Author Share Posted January 5, 2006 Re: Exchanges - Betting In Play Spreadman - you mentioned visiting other sites for information. I've visited loads, and essentially the ones i've been to don't actually give many strategies, if any. Obvioulsy, they seem to be well guarded secrets, and marketable in most instances, so the websites are essentially trying to flog their strategies. Have you any address's that your aware of that are more helpfull. Cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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