Special Bets

[typicalleedsfan]

This is a bit of an area of interest for me, and though I may have missed the boat slightly with IACGMOOH over and X Factor coming to an end, there are still plenty of markets worthy of disucssion and value bets to be had. With a few reality shows on a the moment, the Xmas markets, and of course Celebrity Big Bro in the New Year. If anyone has any value punts please post them here, and if you disagree with any of the following please speak up. X FACTOR - I have had a few nice winners on the evictions in this so far but its now getting to the nitty gritty. I fancy SHAYNE to win outright, and though its by no means a certainty - he looks the obvious choice to me. He's best priced 2.0 now with sporting odds, though 2.1 is available at betfair. As low as 1.72 with some firms. As Andy and Brenda are both from the same 'stable' (Over 25s), it is likely that one of them will go next so that each manager is left with one act. Andy is looking like the one to go, Brenda has momentum following a decent week last week. He's odds-on across the board with most firms but 2.0 with betdirect. Not sure if I'll back him but its worth considering. STRICTLY COME DANCING - Surprisingly, I dont watch this shite (you've got to draw a line somewhere..) but I think there could be a bit of value about ZOE BALL to win. She is 2.1 favourite with the bookies, with Colin Jackson 2nd favourite at 2.25. It does look a two-horse race with some chef bloke and Goughy looking like also-rans. However, on betfair, favouritism is reversed - Jackson slight favourite over Ball who is 2.42. On the face of it, this looks like a bit of value. Again, would appreciate any comments from anyone who has been watching this regularly. XMAS NUMBER 1 SINGLE - Its a difficult one this. The Winner of X Factor is currently favourite - best price 1.66 with Stan James and Ladbrokes. Obviously the show is hugely popular and the single will be plugged big time but the problem with backing it is a) we dont know who the winner will be, and b) we dont know who what the song will be, and c) its a short price with so many runners. Market has recently gone up on betfair, and I'd rather be on Westlife ft Diana Ross at 20s, albeit to small stakes for an interest bet. SONG OF THE YEAR - Think this is on Saturday and MCFLY look a great price at 2/1 with ladbrokes. It looks like its between their repulsively catchy 'All about You' , Westlife and James Blunt. If it is indeed a three horse race - i think McFly are a great price (with their fan base, teenage girls, likely to be among the main voters) but i wouldnt be shocked to see either of the others win it. It also represents a small arb, as McFly is 2.62 to lay on betfair. XMAS NUMBER 1 ALBUM - Not much info on this and only Betfair pricing it up that I am aware of, but I fancy Eminem - if you dont, please lay my tenner at 3.1!

[alexmac]

Re: Special Bets Are we just backing favourites in them all then??? ;)