NBA Fri 25th....

[TazaD]

Boston v. Charlotte over 201.5 I don't take any notice of 'total' trends much for the NBA, but this one stands out... League: 16-3-2 over (av. total 197.3...av. score 209.6) away 5+ dog, any rest, off a 10+ ats win as home 4- fav. [Charl] {8-0-2 over (av. total 198.9...av. score 213.1) on 1 or more days rest} 8-1 over (Av. score 222.1!!) if total is 200+ Charlotte have played a very tough defensive schedule so far, and Boston are the worst defensive team they have faced. (ranked 25th for FG% and 27th for points allowed). Boston will score. They've topped 99+ in 8 of 11 games so far, and they've topped this total in 4 of their last 5 games. The clincher for me, is that I also have Boston in 14-1 SU situation in which 12 of the 15 teams have shot at least 45%, and 9/15 have shot 50%! So, like I said, I expect Boston to score, and Charlottle to keep right up in a close one. SA -11 (1.97) League: 9-4 (10-3 this no...av. win 18.1) home 10+ fav, 1 day off a 15+ ats win as an away fav. [sA] 7-1 (8-0 this no...av. win 21.5!!) if opp is off any ats win. League: 2-11 (0-12-1 this no...av. loss 19.9) away 10+ dog, 2+ days rest off any upset SU win on the road. [Chic] Pure trend pick this one, because Chicago have recently played SA tough. But it seems that teams on a long break after an upset win find it hard to stay focused...and when a team is playing well (SA), it really is playing well! Like I said the other day, realistically SA have controlled 14 of their last 16 quarters but are only 1-3 ats...I think that still gives them a bit of value here.

[TazaD]

Re: NBA Fri 25th.... Phoenix -5.5 League: 9-3 (10-1-1 this no...av. win 14.6) home 5+ fav, 1 day off a 10+ ats win as away 4- dog, if opp is off a 10- ats loss. 16-8-2 (Av. win 12.3) on 1 or more days rest....11-0 since 2002/03 season! League: 9-14-2 (av. loss 11.3) away 5+ dog, 1 day off 10- ats loss as any away dog, if opp is off a 10+ ats win. [NJ] 0-9 (Av. loss 17.2!!) if opp won 10+ ats as a dog. 3-15 (2-16 this no...av. loss 13.8) as any dog, on any rest! I know this isn't the same Suns team without Stoudemire, but they have been getting the job done...3 losses have been to Detroit, SA, Memphis and they have won 3 of their last 4 by more than 6. I just don't think NJ are very good at all!...Wins against Seattle, Chicago, Toronto and Utah certainly don't inspire confidence! They are 1-4 on the road, and with Carter and Collins ?? for tonight, I think it'll be hard for them to keep up with Phoenix.