Football over/under odds verification

[przeszczepan]

I am going to share my fair odds estimations for over/under 2.5 goals in major european leagues with you.

They are based on a simple econometric model incorporating results of previous games as the only source of information with parameters estimated seperately for each league.

These are meant to give you a point of reference for potential further analysis of the totals market. I plan to verify their accuracy in comparison with linemakers estimations (more on the method later). The overal results* after 357 matches are: our MAE** = 48.99% bookmakers*** MAE = 49.6% * last update: 28.08.2006 ** mean absolute error of prediction *** average bookmakers odds supplied by Football-Data

[merlin]

Re: Football over/under odds verification Look forward with interest Lucas, be good to see some ideas behind the thinking.Be lucky!;)