NZ in SA - ODI's & 20/20

[swooperman]

NZ in SA Starts tomorrow with the 20/20 @ the Wanderers, Johannesburg, & then is followed by 5 ODI's: 21/10 Goodyear Park, Bloemfontein 28/10 Newlands, Cape Town D/N 30/10 St Georges Park, Port Elizabeth 4/11 Kingsmead, Durban D/N 6/11 Supersport Park, Centurion South Africa: Graeme Smith (capt), Jacques Kallis, Nicky Boje, Mark Boucher, AB de Villiers, Boeta Dippenaar, Herschelle Gibbs, Andrew Hall, Justin Kemp, Charl Langeveldt, Albie Morkel, Andre Nel, Makhaya Ntini, Shaun Pollock, Ashwell Prince. New Zealand: Stephen Fleming (capt), Daniel Vettori, Andre Adams, Nathan Astle, Shane Bond, James Franklin, Hamish Marshall, James Marshall, Brendon McCullum, Craig McMillan, Kyle Mills, Jacob Oram, Jeetan Patel, Scott Styris, Lou Vincent. These squads are for all 6 games, apart from Albie Morkel who is a bit of a 20/20 specialist in SA, & leaves the squad after the 20/20 tomorrow. Now theres form here in more ways than one, first the stats: Overall ODI's NZ v SA: p40, NZ 14, SA 23, NR 3 on neutral ground: p16, NZ 4, SA 12 in SA: p9, NZ 1, SA 7, NR 1 ...now if you looked at recent head to heads, you'd see that NZ have won 6 of the last 7 against SA, which included their only victory on SA soil in the 2003 World Cup, which was somewhat of a shock, but apart from that they havent won a ODI in that country, losing the 2 previous series' 5-0 in 2000/1 (inc.1 NR) & 2-0 in 94/5. In 2003 they met in a 6 match series in NZ which the hosts won 5-1, & the SA's regrouped to save the test series 1-1, but the manner of their collapse in the one dayers was shocking. Graeme Smith is only 24 now, & he is comparable to Stephen Fleming in that they were both given their national captaincy at absurd ages. Fleming is regarded in many circles as the best captain in world cricket & when NZ had set SA a decent total in a rain reduced match in the first ODI, Smiths walk to the crease was interrupted by Flemings verbal assault as he approached the wicket. Its not known what was said but Smith was shocked & it resorted to a finger pointing exercise whilst shouting from 6 yards.....Smith was out shortly afterwards. Smith admitted afterwards that he was astounded by this & for a brief time it undermined him & destroyed his confidence, & SA were soundly thrashed as a result. SA are a workmanlike side, very machine-like & they like it very much their way, but they are very strong at home in ODI's...as their previous record v NZ shows. They beat England very convincingly last year in these games, & some of their grounds are real strongholds: Goodyear Park, SA w8, l6, nr1 Newlands, SA w17, l3, & in day/nighters its 13-3 St Georges Park, SA w12, l5 Kingsmead, SA w11, l5, t1, nr 3 & in day nighters its 8-3-1-3 Supersport Park, SA w15, l6 Individual head to heads are interesting: Kallis 33m, 3x100 (none this decade & none in SA) avg 48.33, 29 wkts @ 29.72 Gibbs 22m, 1x100, avg 34.47 Boje 21m, 2x100, avg 59 Pollock 33m, 44wkts @ 23.88 Ntini 27 wkts @ 21.7 Fleming 33m, 2x100, avg 34.53 Astle 25m, 1x100, avg 24.23 Now an interesting one is Shane Bond, who has played SA 6 times & took 8 wickets @ 34.12, but this is the Shane Bond who toally annhilated India recently in this form & basically made Ganguly look the coward against quicks that he is....if he is firing then he is NZ's main hope. Chris Cairns was omitted from the touring party controversially, & Fleming has admitted his disappointment in this decision & the wish that Cairns was in SA with NZ, a public view that only a man as secure in his position as Fleming can utter. In a nutshell, Glenn turner is now a selector & he & Cairns had a massive fall out whilst Turner was coach in the West Indies in 95/6, which resulted in Turner being sacked & Cairns becoming a class all rounder. He could be hit & miss these days but a SA tour is tough & you need your best players & Cairns would be in their first X1 as he averages 37.9 in SA. If Bond can stay fit & bowl well NZ may get their chances but even his 5-37 in the warm up game came @ 7 an over. Hamish Marshall seems to be struggling to continue his form on arrival at this level & I really expect NZ to struggle here, & I think the 1.58 on offer @ Centrebet is a decent price for the series. I think although Fleming still turns it on occasionally they are too reliant & there are cameo players in their top order in Styris & Astle, who just dont produce it consistently enough for me. I'm not sure the SA pitches will really suit Bond unless he gets his control right, as the home side will rely on the containment of Pollock & Ntini, & the hitting of people like Kemp to back up the graft in the top order with the flair of Gibbs. Taking tomorrows 20/20 is quite difficult tbh. The best SA price I found was 1.8 @ Skybet & NZ's was 2.15 @ Bet & Win, although a general 2.1 is available. The problem is that SA have 4 players having only landed from the superseries on wednesday after 30 hours flying via Dubai, & they are not all going to play in this game. Its a fair bet that Morkel, the Titans big hitter will play in SA's first international in this form. 20/20 is played in SA & most have played it in England too but the nagging thought was that last season Kent had Kemp, Hall & another S African & were embarrasingly hammered in the 20/20. I still think that SA will be too strong in this game particularly as Vettori definetly misses out for NZ & Oram & Styris have niggles & may only bat, & I feel that Sa have too much strength in depth,, for instance they have a few bowlers to attack/defend with, NZ are looking at Bond as a strike weapon. The 1.8 tempts but SA have said that tomorrows team 'is definetly not the side that will play in the first ODI' & that puts me off tbh. I think that Bet365's 2.05 on SA hitting more 6's looks better, with the tie @ 6.00 as cover. I may yet get tempted with SA @ 1.8, as I say I think theyre just too strong, & the only previous 20/20 experience NZ have is losing to Australia, but there was an element of fun in that game, not here. SA want revenge in the ODI's & that looks a good bet IMO, the above in the 20/20 are my choice, & the 8/1 on Morkel the specialist being SA high scorer @ >Stan James & Bet365 might be worth a shout too

[Mr Intensity]

Re: NZ in SA - ODI's & 20/20 Nice one Swoopsy:loon