New System Starts Today !!!

[spreadman]

As promised, here are full details of my 'card counting' derived system, for more details of its conception, take a look at my 'card counting' thread in the systems and strategy forum. It is a natural extension to my currently successful 'Spreadman's Double Sell system ', details of which can be found by clicking the link below. Back to today's new system. I have named it the 'Total Goal Minutes Sell System', highly original, but it does what it says on the tin. I'll abbreviate it to the 'TGMSS' to save time. To briefly recap on the reasoning behind the system, (full details on the other thread), I wondered if it was possible to 'card count' the goals scored per match in televised English league matches on Sky Sports TV, (you don't need to subscribe to Sky to use the TGMSS system), in the same way that a blackjack player card counts the 'value' of playing cards in order to decide whether to play or hold against the dealer, having calculated if the pack is 'tilted' inhis favour, i.e. contains more high cards, if he holds an ace or picture card. In theory this should be possible. Our 'deck' will consist of approximately 250 'cards', - the sum total of matches to be broadcast live by Sky, over the course of the 2005-6 football season. Just as a normal deck of cards is dealt one by one, allowing the Blackjack player to card count the value of each card, we will 'count' each match dealt, (broadcast), to us and assign it a numerical value, the total number of goals scored determining how much the value is that we give to each individual match. Our running card, or, rather, match count value will determine whether we trade or not. The values given to each match are listed below, and just as the card counter assigns positive and negative values to each card, we shall give each match result a + or - number value. Here are the rules for trading, and the various strategies I will be using, as well as the table that shows how the match values, that I mentioned just now, are worked out. I will be including a 'control' strategy that uses sell trades on every match, regardless, to see whether the card counting strategy is actually more profitable. I will also run a parallel trade in total goal sells as well as total goal minutes, as some times a match with a losing tgms trade can still provide a winning total goals trade, if two goals are scored late in the game. THE CARD VALUE TABLE If match goals scored = 0, card value = +2 If goals scored = 1, card value, (cv) = +1. 2 goals = cv 0 3 goals = cv -1 4 goals = cv -2 5 goals = cv -3 6 or more = cv -4 STRATEGY 1 - THE CARD COUNTING SYSTEM (a) To count the 'cards' or goals in the match results as they are played, in order to calculate a running positive or negative number called the 'count'. (b) If the number is negative and greater than -1, e.g. -2,-3,-4, etc., the next match will be traded on. The reason, or, at least, the theory for this is that, as in a pack of cards, if this number is a negative one, there should be more chance of positive number results, and hence, lower scoring matches, to come, in the near future. Of course, this depends on total goal averages remaining consistent from month to month, season to season, which I know doesn't strictly happen in reality. But time will tell. © If the number is, or becomes, a positive one, this implies that there is less chance that a low scoring match will come out of the 'pack', and so is not trade on, unless the conditions outlined below suggest that it should be. (d) Don't trade after a 0-0 result.The past stats. prove this is a good strategy. (e) Use level stakes for each sell trade. (f) If the total sum of goals in the previous two matches is 6 or more, trade on the next match. STRATEGY 2 - STAKING PLAN SYSTEM Uses the above rules, to select matches to be traded, but with a staking plan. This is : +2 points after a losing TGMSS trade. Continue at this staking level until back to previous bank level, then reduce stake by one point. This will, in effect see a gradual rise in the 'base' stake level. STRATEGY 3 - MARTINGALE STYLE STAKING PLAN Paper traded only...just to see how long it takes to reach gambler's ruin!! Stake plan: 1,2,4,8,16,32,64,.....suicide, etc... STRATEGY 4 - THE CONTROL SYSTEM Just trading on every match, no selection process, level staking plan, nothing fancy, but, hopefully will prove the theory, (or not!), that card counting can work for socer trades. Starting banks for TGMSS and Total Goals system will be 1000 points and 1000 pounds each. All trades posted on the thread entitled 'Spreadman's Total Goal Minutes Sells System'. First trade, today, at 12.30p.m., sorry about short notice. Please post any questions you have on this thread. :ok

[mr onemore]

Re: New System Starts Today !!! Spreadman - I'm sure you know better than this! You can't compare playing Blackjack with football results... In Blackjack - the deck becomes more predictable as the discards are known...we know what the deck contains at the start, and as cards are shown we can make a sound calculation as to what is left. But in football, we have no idea what the 'deck' contains, and when results are 'revealed' this in no way gives us any information on what remains in the 'deck'. It's a bit like tossing a coin - getting heads - and saying the next toss has more chance of being tails because the heads are getting used up... :(