New System Starts Today !!!

[spreadman]

As promised, here are full details of my 'card counting' derived system, for more details of its conception, take a look at my 'card counting' thread in the systems and strategy forum. It is a natural extension to my currently successful 'Spreadman's Double Sell system ', details of which can be found by clicking the link below. Back to today's new system. I have named it the 'Total Goal Minutes Sell System', highly original, but it does what it says on the tin. I'll abbreviate it to the 'TGMSS' to save time. To briefly recap on the reasoning behind the system, (full details on the other thread), I wondered if it was possible to 'card count' the goals scored per match in televised English league matches on Sky Sports TV, (you don't need to subscribe to Sky to use the TGMSS system), in the same way that a blackjack player card counts the 'value' of playing cards in order to decide whether to play or hold against the dealer, having calculated if the pack is 'tilted' inhis favour, i.e. contains more high cards, if he holds an ace or picture card. In theory this should be possible. Our 'deck' will consist of approximately 250 'cards', - the sum total of matches to be broadcast live by Sky, over the course of the 2005-6 football season. Just as a normal deck of cards is dealt one by one, allowing the Blackjack player to card count the value of each card, we will 'count' each match dealt, (broadcast), to us and assign it a numerical value, the total number of goals scored determining how much the value is that we give to each individual match. Our running card, or, rather, match count value will determine whether we trade or not. The values given to each match are listed below, and just as the card counter assigns positive and negative values to each card, we shall give each match result a + or - number value. Here are the rules for trading, and the various strategies I will be using, as well as the table that shows how the match values, that I mentioned just now, are worked out. I will be including a 'control' strategy that uses sell trades on every match, regardless, to see whether the card counting strategy is actually more profitable. I will also run a parallel trade in total goal sells as well as total goal minutes, as some times a match with a losing tgms trade can still provide a winning total goals trade, if two goals are scored late in the game. THE CARD VALUE TABLE If match goals scored = 0, card value = +2 If goals scored = 1, card value, (cv) = +1. 2 goals = cv 0 3 goals = cv -1 4 goals = cv -2 5 goals = cv -3 6 or more = cv -4 STRATEGY 1 - THE CARD COUNTING SYSTEM (a) To count the 'cards' or goals in the match results as they are played, in order to calculate a running positive or negative number called the 'count'. (b) If the number is negative and greater than -1, e.g. -2,-3,-4, etc., the next match will be traded on. The reason, or, at least, the theory for this is that, as in a pack of cards, if this number is a negative one, there should be more chance of positive number results, and hence, lower scoring matches, to come, in the near future. Of course, this depends on total goal averages remaining consistent from month to month, season to season, which I know doesn't strictly happen in reality. But time will tell. © If the number is, or becomes, a positive one, this implies that there is less chance that a low scoring match will come out of the 'pack', and so is not trade on, unless the conditions outlined below suggest that it should be. (d) Don't trade after a 0-0 result.The past stats. prove this is a good strategy. (e) Use level stakes for each sell trade. (f) If the total sum of goals in the previous two matches is 6 or more, trade on the next match. STRATEGY 2 - STAKING PLAN SYSTEM Uses the above rules, to select matches to be traded, but with a staking plan. This is : +2 points after a losing TGMSS trade. Continue at this staking level until back to previous bank level, then reduce stake by one point. This will, in effect see a gradual rise in the 'base' stake level. STRATEGY 3 - MARTINGALE STYLE STAKING PLAN Paper traded only...just to see how long it takes to reach gambler's ruin!! Stake plan: 1,2,4,8,16,32,64,.....suicide, etc... STRATEGY 4 - THE CONTROL SYSTEM Just trading on every match, no selection process, level staking plan, nothing fancy, but, hopefully will prove the theory, (or not!), that card counting can work for socer trades. Starting banks for TGMSS and Total Goals system will be 1000 points and 1000 pounds each. All trades posted on the thread entitled 'Spreadman's Total Goal Minutes Sells System'. First trade, today, at 12.30p.m., sorry about short notice. Please post any questions you have on this thread. :ok

[mr onemore]

Re: New System Starts Today !!! Spreadman - I'm sure you know better than this! You can't compare playing Blackjack with football results... In Blackjack - the deck becomes more predictable as the discards are known...we know what the deck contains at the start, and as cards are shown we can make a sound calculation as to what is left. But in football, we have no idea what the 'deck' contains, and when results are 'revealed' this in no way gives us any information on what remains in the 'deck'. It's a bit like tossing a coin - getting heads - and saying the next toss has more chance of being tails because the heads are getting used up... :(

[spreadman]

Re: New System Starts Today !!! Mr. Onemore, thanks for your early input. As I believe I have stated, this is a theory, which I am testing publicly, and will be happy if it works, but not disappointed if it doesn't. Time will tell! The premise on which I base the theory is a little shaky to say the least, I trust you have read my first post in the original 'card counting' thread, posted a few days ago...it will explain more fully my logic, or lack of it. I have to disagree with your coin tossing analogy. In a season of football matches I know roughly the expected goal averages before they happen. O.K., in a long series of coin tosses we know, roughly the expected outcome of the averages of heads and tails that are likely. Maybe I am just capitalising on the spread firms offering the equivalent in your coin tossing exaample of evens for heads, 11/10 for tails. I may well be wrong assuming that if the current goal average per match is higher than it should be, it will 'even' itself out- which i would stress is different from thinking that the matches in the future will in some way 'over compensate' by being low scoring matches. If there are 2.4 or less per match, on average, I will profit, as, in my humble opinion the spread companies have them marked slightly higher than they should be, and I can usually sell at 2.4 or greater. It seems that what you are contesting is the fact that I appear to think that I can predict a future event by what has just happened, as if the two events are dependant, or can influence the outcome of each other, unlike a coin toss. I personally believe that you cannot compare a random event such as coin tossing with the number of goals expected to be scored in a series of football matches. I base this on the belief, rightly, or wrongly, that there are indeed a likely number of cards or particular goal scores in a pack, or series of football matches, the way that they are 'dealt', or occur may be random, but I can say, for sure, that when all the cards are dealt, the per centages of 1-0, 1-1, 2-1 results, etc. will be fairly predictable. Perhaps I have chosen a poor analogy, or starting point for my 'thought beliefs'. Only time will tell. Your comments could prove to be true...as you will note, I have a 'control' strategy, as a comparitive tool, which will help to decide if what I am doing is profitable, or not, but not necessarily what is responsible for the gain or loss. If the ' card counting' strategy does work, and a profit is made during the season, then it could be for another reason. At least I will have, hopefully found out whether my logic is fallacious, or stumbled across a means of profiting from this strategy. I look forward to your, or any other Pl'ers constructive criticism contributions. :D

[mr onemore]

Re: New System Starts Today !!! You say in football you know roughly what is going to happen...well with a fair coin you know exactly what will happen (in the long run) - that's more info than we know with football...but we know that previous tosses of a fair coin shed no light on what the very next throw will be... I'm sorry Spreadman - but there's no reason to try your idea out...and you could back test it easily if you really wanted, I just don't see what you're trying to prove here - your idea flies in the face of basic Mathematics

[spreadman]

Re: New System Starts Today !!! Mr. Onemore, I have been away, editing my previous reply, posted in response to your first comments. You may like to study the revised version. I admire your strong defence of Mathematics...I even, you may be surprised to hear, agree with most of what you say, as it is well established theory or law. Maybe I will prove nothing, or that my theory is unprovable. Maybe I will make a profit and not know why. Maybe I will make a loss, and still not know, other than the result of my diminished bank!! To me it this forum is a place where ideas, theories and systems can be displayed, trialed, (?), discussed, analysed and criticised. I am not telling people to follow what I say or believe, or back it with their cash. I am not suggesting that you may have over reacted to my post, but it will be interesting to see the outcome of the strategy,, and if it can be proved that 'card counting' can be specifically attributed to any gains, if they occur, for whatever reason, apparent or otherwise..... :ok

[spreadman]

Re: New System Starts Today !!! P.S., I have back tested the idea, and a profit was made, but I have to try and devise a method or strategy to determine whether it is the 'card counting' aspect that is directly contributing to the profitability of the system, or possibly something else, or both.....:unsure

[spreadman]

Re: New System Starts Today !!! I have added this short post as it occurred to me that some PL'ers will see my daily trade posts for the new Spreadman's Total Goal Minutes System and wonder what the **** they are about.....:unsure So, full details of how the strategies are applied, how the card count is updated, and general system info. are found in post 1 of this thread, below.... Today's first traded match, for Sunday, 16th October, is a 1.30 p.m. k.o., Reading v Ipswich, on Sky Sports TV, but you don't need to subscribe to Sky, you can still bet on this match if you have a spread betting account. If you don't, why not open one today....www.sportingindex.com is a good place to start.......(and, no, there's nothing in it for me!!) No punters were harmed in the making of this advert.......:loon