Weekend Football Bets > 31st January - 3rd February

[harry_rag]

Almost time to tear another month off the calendar! 

There's a full set of Premier League fixtures spread across Saturday to Monday with Arsenal v Man City as the obvious biggie. First thought was I might fancy the away win but I was hoping the price might have been a bit bigger. There's action all the way down from the Championship to the National Leagues as well, in the various Scottish leagues and the Cymru Premier too, should anyone wish to rip a hole in the space/time continuum by posting a selection in that competition! 

All of the major Euro leagues are present and correct as well so it's more a matter of picking and choosing rather than scratching around for a bet.

Exercise your due diligence or lucky pin (delete as appropriate) and share your thoughts bets and snippets of wisdom with us here.

[ozorgnax]

I've decided to write a long post containing some of my thoughts concerning weekend matches. This is mainly because in order to write this I have to look at the matches more closely and this helps me decide what to ultimately bet on. Any feedback is of course welcome. All of the following matches are suggested by ELO ratings (for whatever this may worth). Of course these are not the only ones but these were confirmed by a further look at standings home/away form, or maybe just my hunches 

England Premier League
Ipswich vs Southampton: OK both teams suck but I think recently Southampton sucks less  I mean at least they try... if you look at their stats they have shots on target, corners etc. Ipswich seems worn down before the game starts. I'd favor laying Ipswich at the exchanges at about @1.93

Man Utd vs Crystal Palace: In another time this would be a no brainer but nobody can trust Manchester this year. Palace are no poushover as attested by their standinds (just 2 points less than Man Utd). Away they have 16 points in 11 matches while Man have the same points in 12 matches. I think draw no bet for Palace @2.75 is worth a shot

England Championship
Oxford vs Bristol City: They are separated by 8 places (Oxford are 16th, Bristol are 8th) but only 5 points in the standings. The thing is though that both are home teams. Oxford have won 28 of their 36 points at home while ristol have only won 15 of their 41 points away from home. Given also the ELO ratings I would wager a small bet for a straight home win @3.4 or a medium bet at draw-no-bet @2.27

Derby vs Sheff Utd: Difference is huge between them. Sheffield are 2nd with 58 points (28 of them away from home), Derby are 3rd from the bottom with 27 points (20 of them at home). I would like something more for the away win than @2.178 but I'll take it

Millwall vs QPR: This is one of those cases that odds seem quite baffling to me. OK, Millwall have won 2 matches in a row but they were against 21st-ranked Portsmouth and 23rd-ranked Luton. In the table there's not much to separate these two, in fact QPR are ranked one point higher. Home and away records are about the same respectively (21 points in 15 matches and 18 points in 14 matches for QPR). Away win is @3.6 and draw-no-bet is @2.52, I think these are very much worth it

Swansea vs Coventry: I'm a sucker for draws and this seems a nice opportunity for one. Coventry a bit better ranked and with much better form (10 points in the last 5 compared to just 1 point in the last 5 for Swansea) but also Swansea are better at home (20 points) than Coventry away from home (14 points). @3.50 seems a nice price for a draw to me

England League Two
Gillingham vs Notts County: This seems easy enough but in these leagues you learn quickly that there's nothing easy  Notts County are 3rd with 47 points and Gillingham are 17th with 32 points. They look like they're comfotable in the second half of the table avoiding any relegation troubles so I don't see much motivation while Notts County are locked in a battle for a direct promotion spot (behind Walsall in all likelihood). @2.139 seems a fair price to me for an away win

Germany Bundesliga
Bochum vs Freiburg: This may seem like crazy thinking since Bochum is firmly last with only 10 points while Freiburg are 10th with 27 points but if we compare home matches for Bochum (9 matches - 9 points) with away matches for Freiburg (10 matches - 8 points) a more even picture appears. Also add to the mix the atrocious form of Freiburg (1 point in 5 matches) and the quite decent of Bochum (7 points in the last 5 and remember that their sum total is 10 point in 19 matches which means they started with 3 points in 14 matches!!!) plus the ELO ratings, I think I could stomach placing a small bet on them @2.92

St. Pauli vs Augsburg: Also another nice candidate for a draw. Both have the same form 9 points in the last 5. St. Pauli at home have 8 points in 9 matches and it's exactly the same for Augsburg's away matches. Augsburg a bit better ranked overall with 5 points more but I think I will go with the draw @3.258 with a small cover bet on Augsburg @3.356

Union Berlin vs Leipzig: Continuing the draws, how about this match? ELO ratings are as close to one another as possible. Leipzig a better team overall but Union have more points at home (with one match less I might add) than Leipzig have away from home. I understand this is riskier than the other but I would still like to put some money on the draw @3.6

Spain La Liga
Real Betis vs Bilbao: Perhaps the strongest bet for me is this. Bilbao are much better ranked (12 pts more) have better away record than Betis home record, better form in the last 5 and the ELO ratings massively favour them. What more would you want before placing a nice bet on them @2.53??