Trainers to Follow (January)

[BARNSLEYCHOP]

The idea behind this thread is to highlight trainers that consistently perform well at certain times of the year.   We have all heard comments on TV “Usually does well at this time of year” “Targets this meeting” but can this be profitable?

 

A shrewd friend of mine back in the day used to tell me about Sir Micheal Stoute and his older horses in the Spring, then Mark Johnston and his runners at Glorious Goodwood,  I used to have lots of joy betting Peter Bowen horses in the summer months.  This snowballed and I started looking at the stats to see if there were any patterns with trainers on a monthly basis, my theory being that trainers are creatures of habit and they do peak horses at certain times of year and target specific meetings, this turned into a labour of love and I have been selecting trainers to bet each month for over 12 years with reasonable success. 

 

I select trainers using monthly SP statistics, I typically look for trainers with consistent LSP in the month and a strike rate around the 20% mark.

 

I bet each one of these trainers runners in the month to a level stake and the Profit/Loss comes from Early Price figures using Best Odds Guaranteed bookmakers and exchanges when the prices are out of line.  Using this combination I have made a profit in 9 of the 12 years and have an overall LSP over the 12 year period.

 

           2013     +£54.99  LSP

           2014     +£45.67  LSP

           2015     +£192.53 LSP

           2016     +£198.89 LSP

           2017     (£123.20) LSL

           2018     (£186.81) LSL

           2019     +£ 11.83  LSP

           2020*    (£184.72) LSL

           2021     +£33.20  LSP

           2022     +£103.11  LSP 

           2023     +£35.64 LSP

           2024     +£168.30 LSP  

* 2020 was a messy year with Covid spoiling schedules, meetings being rearranged and some stables being closed down so I’ve pretty much written it off in terms of meaningful figures.  We have been back on track since and I’m hoping for a successful 2025

 

I will aim to keep a daily update of results

JANUARY TRAINERS

 

I had a tiny loss last January and as a result I have 5 new trainers.

 

I have 9 trainers in total this month, 4 are back from last year, we have 5 NH trainers and 4 AW trainers.

 

NATIONAL HUNT TRAINERS

GARY  & JOSH MOORE (ALL)

Sussex trainer who made a small profit for me in December and last January.

 

Year	Wins/Runs	Strike Rate	P/L
2018	9/46	20%	£7.00
2019	9/61	15%	(£20.38)
2020	8/48	17%	£5.70
2021	11/56	20%	£35.78
2022	16/68	24%	£9.13
2023	10/49	20%	(£9.92)
2024	11/60	18%	(£8.05)

Looks disappointing on the face of it but my own figures were +£4.33 in 2023 and +£5.57 in 2024 using Early Prices, the strike rate is fine, I've stuck with him while he continues to show a profit profit.

 

CHRIS GORDON (NON BUMPERS)

Hampshire trainer who is back after giving a +£27.00 LSP last January.

 

Year	Wins/Runs	Strike Rate	P/L
2018	6/21	29%	£34.10
2019	3/21	14%	(£11.17)
2020	5/28	18%	£16.23
2021	2/7	29%	£0.57
2022	8/39	21%	£1.71
2023	3/12	25%	£23.75
2024	2/19	11%	£27.00

Solid stuff, would like to see an improvement on last year's strike rate, avoid his Bumper horses, he’s 1/8 and (£5.25) for the above period.

 

OLLY MURPHY (ALL)

Another trainer back from last January where he gave a £8.58 LSP.

 

Year	Wins/Runs	Strike Rate	P/L
2018	10/31	32%	£19.75
2019	8/43	19%	(£10.56)
2020	15/39	38%	£29.68
2021	10/52	19%	£2.71
2022	6/64	9%	(£43.02)
2023	9/48	19%	£31.16
2024	12/54	22%	(£4.38)

 

As long as we dodge a repeat of the 2022 figures we should make a nice profit from this guy who comes into the month with a 22% strike rate in December.

 

 

KERRY LEE (ALL)

Hertfordshire trainer who has done well in recent years with the likes of Nemean Lion and Happy Diva.

 

Year	Wins/Runs	Strike Rate	P/L
2020	2/10	20%	£3.25
2021	1/4	25%	(£0.25)
2022	3/15	20%	£7.83
2023	6/22	27%	£7.28
2024	3/13	23%	(£2.13)

 

Nice strike rate and just a small loss in two of the years, should pay her way.

HARRY DERHAM (ALL)

Only a small sample size but looks to be a trainer on the up.

 

Year	Wins/Runs	Strike Rate	P/L
2023	3/11	27%	£29.50
2024	7/15	47%	£11.95

Has had an issue with his gallops being flooded in December so will be keen to get back on track this month.

ALL WEATHER TRAINERS

 

DAVID SIMCOCK (4YO+)

Newmarket trainer who will crop up a few times throughout the year.

 

Year	Wins/Runs	Strike Rate	P/L
2020	5/22	23%	(£3.80)
2021	2/10	20%	£4.25
2022	5/24	21%	£4.50
2023	5/30	17%	£15.00
2024	6/21	29%	(£3.55)

 

Solid stuff and every chance we would have sneaked a profit last year using early prices with 6 winners.

 

CHARLIE APPLEBY (ALL)

His third year for me in the January, he made a small loss last year but his figures are pretty solid.

 

Year	Wins/Runs	Strike Rate	P/L
2020	5/12	42%	(£0.45)
2021	6/11	55%	£0.25
2022	7/15	47%	£0.00
2023	7/15	47%	£0.56
2024	5/11	45%	(£1.64)

 

Crazy strike rate, every chance we can glean a profit by getting on early.

 

 

JAMES TATE (3YO’S)

Another Newmarket trainer who will appear again later in the year.

 

Year	Wins/Runs	Strike Rate	P/L
2021	3/15	20%	£6.83
2022	0/3	0%	(£3.00)
2023	4/14	29%	£18.88
2024	2/5	40%	£5.83

 

Just the one bad year when he only had 3 runners, he’s just 2/14 and (£9.77) with his non 3yo’s over the same period so we will give them a swerve.

 

HUGO PALMER (ALL)

We've moved away from Newmarket for our last trainer, and we’ve saved the best until last in terms of figures.

 

Year	Wins/Runs	Strike Rate	P/L
2021	2/12	17%	(£2.75)
2022	3/9	33%	(£1.33)
2023	7/24	29%	£16.58
2024	8/22	36%	£80.90

 

Fantastic stuff in the past two years, he comes into the month on the back of a poor November and December but that’s usually the case so don’t let that put you off.

Any questions, comments or observations please leave below or DM me, I'll post January figures to date shortly and will try and post results daily.

 

[BARNSLEYCHOP]

1st January

15 runners - 3 winners

Cabhfuilfungi (Kerry Lee) @ 11/10

Alnilam (Derham) @ 6's

Slugger (Derham) @ 11/8

(£3.52)