NFL Week 9 Bets

[harry_rag]

Here's the schedule for week 9 which is the midway point of the regular season if I'm not mistaken. My real money bets recovered a bit this week with the ROI up to 5.4% which would be a reasonable enough number if I could maintain it. 

Let's see what winners we can find between us this week. Best of luck all!

[bymatrix]

 

Quick post on a strategy i use occasionally when the match up looks right and the prices look too big , one of a few that revolve around field goals and bets that look to oppose the losing public....

I know a lot of this special betting stuff is matrix driven taken from a chart and not really taking into a/c which teams are playing , was looking for any possible bet on the Steelers vs Giants last night and immediate thoughts were field goals as they're neither free scoring so was never going near 42-35 or anything stupid and it was 2/7 that there would be points each quarter so more than fair to assume there would be at least one score each quarter never mind each half and to me with this match up just as much chance of a FG as a TD.

So looked a specials involving FG's and found 15/2 for each team to score a FG in both halves , in my head that should have been a lot shorter and those odds were more geared to the Brees / Brady / Rodgers shootout days when they'd go on 4^th and saw a FG as a virtual failure , also feel it's important the game looks potentially close as a 21pt gap would virtually bin the bet as the trailers would be refusing a FG.

 

So last night qualified in my eyes , must admit there are so many match ups you wouldn't go near with a bet involving FG's but there are some which look far better equipped to deliver , i also feel FG's is something the general public don't seem too interested in as the 98% of flutterers want to see TD's as they do in your sport of Soccer when all the interest punters just back goals because it's what they want to see rather than what they think will happen , must say you have to be very selective though and look for possible lower scoring games which will be a red herring to some as they think wanting FG's is the need for scoring but in effect the more FG's you get makes it lower scoring as you're losing the opportunity of the extra 4pts on the drive , so not a high scoring game , not a shoot out with the relevant QB's and a potentially evenly matched game without a team running away with it.

 

So basically to consider this particular bet i'm looking for a team that i don't think will go above an 11pt gap which means the FG will stay alive for both teams as it'll make it a one possession game , i'm thinking there's loads of teams qualify to consider but need to be playing each other and considering the all important strike rate  you can afford plenty of losers at those prices.

 

Good example of my thinking would be say a snowbound game in Buffalo or Miami when the points under would collapse as the weather deteriorated and therefore the markets seen as positive like scoring would be left overpriced in most cases so that's when i'd see the bet in question as being a decent bet , use a Buffalo game as an example because it happened in real life and price available was incredible , to me anyway.

 

New York Giants @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Yes - Both Teams To Score A Field Goal In Each Half

15/2

 

Just a thought whilst a few minutes to spare and it's always good to exchange ideas