Stratford hunter chase night

[Darran]

Cheltenham could hardly have gone any better so it would be nice to repeat the feat tonight at Stratford tonight to end the hunter chase season. Here are my thoughts on the card.

NB prices were taken at around 9am this morning

6.05

Jay Bees Whiskey 1pt @ 6/1 with most bookies (Hills are 13/2 and take up to 4/1)

Padjoes Legacy 1pt @ 5/1 with Paddy Power, William Hill and Betfair (take up to 7/2)

6.35

Shantou Flyer 1pt @ 5/2 with Bet365, William Hill, BetVictor, Coral and William Hill (take up to 7/4)

7.05

Iskandar Pecos 2pts @ 11/10 with everyone (take up to 10/11)

7.35

Annamix 2pts @ 11/4 with most (3/1 with Hills and take up to 2/1)

Fairly Famous 1pt @ 11/4 with most bookies (take up to 9/4)

8.05

Solomon Grey 2pts e/w @ 9/1 with Paddy Power, William Hill and Betfair (10/1 with 365 and take up to 5/1)

Rebel Dawn Rising 1pt @ 11/4 with William Hill and BetVictor 3/1 with 365 and take up to 11/5)

8.40

Missed Tee 1pt e/w @ 12/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair and William Hill (14/1 with Bet365 and take up to 7/1)

Kaproyale 0.5pts @ 13/2 with Bet365 and William Hill (take up to 5/1)

 

6.05 

Castle Daragh - Caused a massive shock when winning the Dunraven Bowl at Chepstow last time and after the race we found that his jockey who works for David Pipe actually trains him on his lunchbreak. That form is untrustworthy for me and the fact the 5^th was stuffed at Cartmel on Monday backs that theory up. The 2^nd Gats And Co was pulled up in a handicap on his next start as well.

 

Caballo Diablo - Did well to win a 1 runner Restricted at Cocklebarrow on his seasonal return in January. Next start though he pulled up and possibly something was amiss as he didn't run for nearly 2 months. The 2^nd to Latenightrumble on Easter Sunday was a fair effort given how he got on at Cheltenham and he then won in the fastest time of the day at Witton Castle. The problem is he ran on Sunday at Kingston Blount and he ran terribly. Hard to back him on the back of that.

 

Jay Bee Whisky - Showed a bit of promise last season in maidens, but he has really thrived this season as he won 5 on the bounce. He was well backed ahead of easily landing a maiden in November and his restricted success was even easier the following month as he hacked up by 20L. Connections decided to run him in another restricted as you are able to do now under a 5lbs penalty and he was well backed to win again. His next two starts were in a conditions race and a mixed open and he had two very easy wins at long odds on again, both over 2m4f. His first defeat of the season came in his last start on Easter Monday where he was an 8L 2^nd to Looksnowtlikebrian. Now that one was just behind Castle Daragh at Chepstow, but I don't think he quite ran up to form that night as it came just 6 days after running in the Lady Dudley Cup. I also wonder if maybe Jay Bee Whiskey wasn't quite at his best in that race because he's had 2 months off since no doubt with this race in mind and he looks to have a leading chance.

 

Learntalot - Won on the first day of the pointing season at the start of November when going off at 4/6, but he hasn't got his head in front in 4 runs since and one of those he finished 3^rd behind Jay Bee Whiskey. He looks to have a bit to find.

 

Mount Pleasant - Didn't show a great deal in 3 runs under rules for Nicky Henderson in the 21/22 season and whilst he won a maiden point last year he also struggled on occasions. This season he has really improved though and has won 4 of his six starts. He started off with a 5^th in January when he ran like he needed the run. He then won 2 restricteds in good style and had Caballo Diabolo behind him in the first of those. He was then 3^rd at Higham before winning an intermediate at Parham last month. The time was really slow though which is a bit off putting. He won again at Edgcote a couple of weeks ago although he did make harder work of it then it looked like he was going to do and he had to survive a stewards enquiry. The 2^nd did boost the form by winning on Sunday though, but again it was a rather slow time. This race was highlighted after the race so it has clearly been a target and he has a chance.

 

Padjoes Legacy - Was pulled up behind Mount Pleasant in March, but has improved since then as he beat Well P by 5L at Kimble and then won a match at High Easter. I didn't really give him that much of a chance in the Intermediate Final at Cheltenham, but he ran a hell of a race to finish 3^rd 4.75L behind Iskandar Pecos. He did look a hard ride that night though and he was on and off the bridle which isn't ideal he does that round here. No better jockey to keep him to his work though and if he can repeat that run he's got a superb chance here because that form for me is stronger than the Chepstow form.

 

Red Nika - Had shown promise under rules in the 20-21 season for Tom Lacey after winning a point maiden in 2019 for his wife and he then wasn't seen for nearly 3 years. He bolted up in a restricted when returning pointing in February, but then was put in her place by Wolf Walker who is a very promising horse despite losing at Cheltenham last time. I thought he had some sort of chance at Chepstow and did run well enough to finish a 3.5L 4^th to Castle Daragh. At tonight's weights he actually has the beating of him and it would not surprise me if he reversed the form.

 

Well P - Has 5L to make up on Padjoes Legacy at Kimble on Easter Saturday when they were 1^st and 2nd. He has won both his starts since though and bolted up by 15L at Edgcote last time in a time nearly 20 seconds quicker than Mount Pleasant's race although the final circuit sectional of the latter's race was slightly quicker. His first win this month was his trainers first win in 9 years!

 

Verdict - I don't think it is the easiest race to call and whilst I think Red Nika can reverse Chepstow form with Castle Daragh, I am happy to take them both on and hope I am right again about that form being weak. Mount Pleasant has done well this season, but it does worry me that his last two wins have been in slow races. Well P wouldn't be a surprise winner, but he does have ground to make up on Padjoes Legacy and I make him one of the bets. Yes I am slightly concerned about how he travelled at Cheltenham, but I thought it was a superb effort to finish 3^rd and its the strongest form in the race for me. The other one to back is Jay Bee Whiskey who has looked very promising this season. Yes the 2^nd last time wasn't quite as good, but he's been freshened up since then and that should see him bounce back to form.

 

Jay Bees Whiskey 1pt @ 6/1 with most bookies (Hills are 13/2 and take up to 4/1)

Padjoes Legacy 1pt @ 5/1 with Paddy Power, William Hill and Betfair (take up to 7/2)

 

6.35

Famous Clermont - Can't say I expected him to turn up in this race, but I guess he's had a limited season and this is really the only suitable race on the card for him so he may as well run. He hasn't got anywhere near the heights he reached last season in his 4 runs so far and I would have taken him on had he run at Aintree again. I do think Punchestown though showed promise as he did go quite far clear with Samcro at one stage and was clearly doing a bit too much. It was no surprise he got tired and after he made terrible mistake at the last where he basically stopped to a walk he was pretty much allowed to walk the rest of the way. This is a weaker contest and dropping down in trip round a tight track is going to be a more suitable test for him. This statement is no slight on Izzie who has just won the pointing ladies title, but we know Famous Clermont is a tricky ride and he takes a lot of knowing. Izzie is going to be at her best on him.

 

Shantou Flyer - Has had another fantastic season at the age of 14 and his 6^th at Cheltenham was another cracking effort in the race. Since then he has finished 2^nd to Master Templer, he then ran out on Olive as Stafford Cross which was a bizarre one as he's never looked like doing something like that before. After that he has had a couple of easy successes earlier this month. He won this race last year under a very good ride from Olive who made full use of his stamina round a trip and track which weren't certain to suit. Two things this time around though. First of all there was nothing as good as Famous Clermont in the race and secondly he has clearly regressed a little which is no surprise at his age.

 

Captain Biggles - Just won the restricted race on this card last year so we know he handles course and distance, but that race didn't contain anything like the quality of the other two. He's done well enough this season having won first time out and then finished 2^nd in 3 points although he was beaten at 4/9 last time. He did also run in the Walrus at Haydock in February but not surprisingly got bogged down in the mud. He would need both the front two to run below par to win this.

 

Imperial Esprit - Was 15L behind Yccs Portocervo when 4^th at Kempton, but has won 2 points since in good style. Would still be a surprise winner for me.

 

Shang Tang - He's had a solid enough season on his first term for his new connections having won a couple of points. The 2^nd at Ludlow to Captain Tommy wasn't a bad effort either and he was in contention when unseating at the same venue in March. He found himself outpaced last time at Eyton over 2m4f though and I suspect despite the small field we could see a fast pace here and that might get him out of his comfort zone as well.

 

Verdict - Captain Biggles isn't completely out of this, but I suspect it will be between the top two in the betting. I do think Famous Clermont is the most likely winner, but quite frankly in my view his price stinks. He has enough doubts about his chance that he shouldn't be an odds on shot and I reckon Shantou Flyer is going to attempt to make it a test of stamina again if he can. He is the value in the race for me as I don't think he should be such a big difference in the betting between the two and you can almost be certain he will give his running whereas you can't be with Famous Clermont based on this season.

 

Shantou Flyer 1pt @ 5/2 with Bet365, William Hill, BetVictor, Coral and William Hill (take up to 7/4)

 

7.05

Forest Chimes - On the face of it he was a little lucky to win on his hunter chase debut at Stratford in March as the 2^nd Grand Roi made a mistake at the last and lost more ground than he was beaten by, but Grand Roi is a thinker and I don't think he would have gone past whatever. Since he lost his maiden tag he has been a winning machine in points having won 6 of his 10 starts since April 2022. After the Stratford win he went to Chaddesley Corbett and got beaten although I don't think the jockey change would have helped. Darren Andrews was back on when he won earlier this month at Eyton and it was a very easy success over 2m4f. I think he's useful, but you do have to wonder about him over this far given how good he has looked over shorter this season.

 

Go Go Geronimo - Not the first time he has run in this race as he was beaten 0.75L by Ask D'man in 2022. His only other hunter chase start came in the big on at Cheltenham and not surprisingly he was outclassed. He run 5 times this season although one of those races ended up having to be stopped and voided. He finished 2^nd 3 times and then managed to win last time, but he doesn't really look in the form where you think he is going to go and be capable of beating Iskandar Pecos. What he does have in his favour is he will make the running and that is never a bad thing round here although in this small field he could have competition for that role.

 

Iskandar Pecos - One of our winners at Cheltenham earlier in the month and an astonishing price as well as he went off 3/1 in the end. It was another top effort and he has done nothing but improve all season. He obviously is the one they have to beat, but one note of caution is that he wouldn't be the first winner of the Intermediate Final to then disappoint in this race. Harbour Court was the last horse to do the double in 2013.

 

King Orry - To be fair his 3^rd at Newton Abbot last week was much better than I thought he would go and no surprise the handicapper put him up from 64 to 87. Clearly his form isn't good enough to win this though.

 

Master Templar - Has proven himself to be a real stayer this season and I thought his 2^nd to Gaboriot at Cheltenham over 4m was a new personal best. He was keen on that occasion and helped set quite a strong pace given the conditions and yet he still stayed on strongly to finish 2nd. That form was boosted at Cartmel on Wednesday night and his previous start saw him beat Shantou Flyer so that form might get a boost earlier on the card. I guess the big issue is how much that Cheltenham race has taken out of him, but it was only his 4^th race this season so you would hope he'd be fine. Could be rivals for the lead again, but on paper he is better than those two rivals and we know he will keep going out in front so this track could be ideal for him.

 

Dul Ar Aghaidh - Wasn't a strong hunter chase that she was 2^nd in prior to joining Bradley Gibbs and on the face of it she has a bit to find with some of these. She mainly front ran in Ireland so might well be another to help make the running.

 

Verdict - We have a small field yet again for this race which is a shame, but despite that it does look like there will be plenty of pace on and that should suit Iskandar Pecos who can sit just off the pace and hopefully pick them off let on. I do think Master Templar will be a big danger and there isn't a huge amount of juice in Iskandar Pecos' price, but there is enough there to get involved.

 

Iskandar Pecos 2pts @ 11/10 with everyone (take up to 10/11)

 

7.35

Annamix - Great to see an Irish challenger in the big race and he is one that has a serious chance as well. He was entered at Punchestown and Downpatrick, but he's skipped both those and I wonder if this was a target after his really good 3^rd in the Aintree Foxhunter. He might have finished closer as well as a loose horse got in his way on the run-in. It was no surprise that he ran like he needed further because I think 2m5f is short of ideal for him. He's jumped much better than he did last season when even when winning at Fairyhouse he made plenty of mistakes. I think he will go very close.

 

D'Jango - Written plenty of times this season how big a fan I've been of him this term and how well his new trainer has done to improve him no end. The 4^th at The Festival was a top effort and then he disappointed behind Master Templar in a point. No surprise to see him stay on so strongly even over 4m in the mud at Cheltenham last time and it was a return to form when he was 3^rd to Gaboriot. I'd love to see him run well again, but I do wonder if Stratford is quite the track that will see him at his best and even a repeat of his Cheltenham effort probably wouldn't be good enough to win this.

 

Fairly Famous - Proved at Cheltenham why he had been sent off as 11/10 favourite to beat Sine Nomine at Wetherby back in February where he hated the ground. I thought it was a really good performance to tough it out against Premier Magic, who himself was putting in an improved performance. The better ground here is going to be perfect for him and he is one of the leading contenders.

 

Go On Chez - Has had 2 very easy victories in hunter chases the last couple of months at Ludlow and Kelso. This race does make sense for him to run in and I think he will stay. The ground is vital for him though and he needs it as quick as possible. I also just wonder if he's quite up to this level, but he's had a light campaign and that might end up being crucial so he's a possible winner.

 

Law Of Gold - Has a great record at this meeting having won the John Corbet Cup and then this race the following year before the year after that finishing 2^nd to Vaucelet. I didn't back him any of those times, but did really fancy him for last year's race and he duly ran one of his worst ever races. He also ran one of his worse ever races last time at Cheltenham where the ground totally went against him and he pulled up in the 4m race which he had won the year before. The ground should be fine tonight and clearly he can be forgiven his Cheltenham run and the run in this last year. He's not top of my list, but if he did get his title back it would not surprise.

 

Lift Me Up - Looked impressive at Newbury on his hunter chase debut last March, but then didn't back it up in the Intermediate Final at Cheltenham. His Kimble win on Easter Saturday was impressive, but that was over 2m4f and to me he didn't stay at Cheltenham when a well beaten 3^rd behind Fairy Famous and Premier Magic. The better ground will help, but then he also has further to travel so I can't see the Horner's having a big race winner.

 

Premier Magic - As mentioned above I thought it was a real return to form at Cheltenham last time after a couple of meaningless point wins and a poor performance at The Festival this season. The better ground is probably in his favour, but then it is also in Fairly Famous' favour as well and I don't really see how he can reverse the form.

 

What A Glance - Another one of the winners I put up at Cheltenham and what a win it was as well as he cruised into contention and only had to be pushed out to beat Yippee Ki Yay by 11L. That's strong form as he's a progressive horse himself and won at Kelso on Sunday. The handicapper put him up from 96 to 124 which is fully justified. I think the 2 2nds to Deise Aba were good efforts and the one here over 2m6f looked like he was tapped for toe over the trip. I'd love to see him run well, but my head says he probably wont be quite up to this level.

 

Verdict - What a race we have for the big one this year as I don't think any of them would be a total surprise if they won, even Lift Me Up has a good level of ability and I don't think there are any total no hopers. The two that I think have the biggest chance though are Fairly Famous and Annamix. I'm going to cover them both, but bigger preference is just for Annamix. The Aintree 3^rd is the best piece of form in the race and he looks like he has been saved for this. Fairly Famous was so tough at Cheltenham last time and with this better ground set to suit I don't see how Premier Magic can reverse the form. I might regret not going in again on What A Glance given how impressive he was at Cheltenham, but I'm not sure he's quite as good as the other two and I have the same view on Go On Chez. Law Of Gold could be very dangerous though as you can forget his run in this last year and at Cheltenham last time and we know he loves the track.

 

Annamix 2pts @ 11/4 with most (3/1 with Hills and take up to 2/1)

Fairly Famous 1pt @ 11/4 with most bookies (take up to 9/4)

 

8.05

Rebel Dawn Rising - Really gutsy effort to win at Cheltenham last time beating Cat Tiger by a length and the handicapper has kept him on 129 which is handy when it comes to this race. I don't think the testing ground would have been ideal that night and so the better ground should help here. This is the perfect trip for him and Dale's 3lbs will come in handy given he has joint top weight.

 

Stratagem - Did well hunter chasing in 2022 although he probably should have done even better and he was only 4^th behind Solomon Grey at Cheltenham. This year he has been given a shocking campaign. I have no idea whose idea it has been to run him in the Southwell and Hexham races this season, but they were 2 races he shouldn't have run in. He doesn't really stay 3m and he hates heavy ground so first up they run him on soft ground over 3m at Southwell and no surprise he didn't see it out especially given how long he'd been off the track for. Next up they sent him to one of the stiffest tracks in the country on worst ground over 3m again. He duly finished 139L behind Jerrysback. Maybe getting his handicap mark down for this race was the plan, but I doubt it. This race should be much more suitable, but he has 12-9 to carry with David unable to claim so whilst I am expecting a better performance he wont be carrying my money.

 

Envious Editor - Was another horse that Joe O'Shea had massively improved back in 2022 and the start of 2023. When he won at Taunton last January he looked like he would go on to even better things, but he then ran terribly at Hereford and was put in his place by Famous Clermont at Haydock. I'm not sure why, but he left Joe's after that and whilst the 3rds at Ludlow and Cheltenham were OK they were more signs he wasn't in the same form. He was then stuffed in Ladies race on this card last year. Another new trainer this season and he only reappeared at Hexham's point track 2 weeks ago. Good effort to win after such a long time off, but I don't think it was a strong race and whilst in theory he is well handicapped I prefer others in the race.

 

Solomon Grey - Has run at this meeting the last 2 years, but he was never going to stay in the Horse & Hound a couple of years ago and whilst he ran well enough behind Shantou Flyer in the Ladies race last year he was always going to struggle to keep up with the speed he went round here. For me this is the race for him. He's been 3^rd in all 3 starts far this season, but he always needs his first run of the season and there was 77 days between that and his course and distance 3^rd behind Deise Aba and What A Glance. That's strong form for me and I thought he ran a cracker at Cheltenham behind Rebel Dawn Rising and Cat Tiger on ground he would have hated. He is going to get his ground tonight. At Cheltenham Solomon Grey carried 5lbs less, but here he is going to carry a stone less and there will be more improvement to come on the ground. I think he has a huge chance.

 

Peacocks Secret - Has run in this race the last 2 years. He was a well beaten 3^rd in 2022 and then last year he was beaten 2L by Sixteen Letters when giving him 5lbs and this year he will get 5lbs because of his jockey's claim. Not sure he's been in the best of form this season though as even his win over Back Bar isn't great and then last time he was beaten at 1/2. In theory Back Bar should reverse the form at these weights as well. Think its clear his trainer thinks Rebel Dawn Rising has the better chance.

 

Sixteen Letters - Looked like he was going to be the best handicapped horse in the race last year and he was duly very well backed to win off a mark of 110. He's not run under rules since so just has the 3lbs rise to cope with. No doubt this has been the target, but I'm just not sure he is in as good form as he was this time last year. He was well beaten in his first couple of races of the season, but they were strong heats. He then had a couple of very easy tasks at ¼ before finishing twice. The first of which was still a decent a effort, but not sure the second of them was a great run. He then went to Peper Harrow a couple of weeks ago and won a weak 3 runner race. I think the other thing to consider was last year's renewal of this was pretty weak and I think this is a stronger renewal.

 

Drakes Well - Won a hunter chase over 2m5f here in March 2022 but wasn't able to run for 690 days until he returned in the 2m race at Leicester and his fall was what caused Cooldine Bog to unseat as will be mentioned in the 8.40 race when he and the winner Cap Du Mathan both run. It was a decent effort though on his return and he's got better for 3 more runs in points. He won at Mollington earlier this month over 2m4f and whilst the bare form isn't great he did record a decent speed figure. This was mentioned as a target after the race and Jack Andrews takes over from the trainers son. He wouldn't be top of my list, but a bold showing would not surprise.

 

Back Bar - Been a frustrating horse over the years although does have a hunter chase win to his name having won a novice event at Leicester in February 2022. Only run in one hunter chase in the last couple of seasons and he was beaten in a poor heat at Fontwell at 6/5. He's had 14 runs in points in that time and has managed to win 3, but he's nearly always near the head of the market and doesn't really convert as many as he should. Obviously he gets the weight he deserves to get, but I still don't think he can win.

 

Verdict - I think the Cheltenham race is the key piece of form here and with the ground spot on for Solomon Grey I think he looks a cracking e/w bet in this. For me he looks the best handicapped horse in the race and he has a great chance of being in the first 3 at the very least. I will also have a saver on Rebel Dawn Rising because he is such a tough horse and he is the main danger for me and hopefully I am right with the Cheltenham form being key.

 

Solomon Grey 2pts e/w @ 9/1 with Paddy Power, William Hill and Betfair (10/1 with 365 and take up to 5/1)

Rebel Dawn Rising 1pt @ 11/4 with William Hill and BetVictor 3/1 with 365 and take up to 11/5)

 

8.40

Cap Du Mathan - Was entered in the sales last week, but was withdrawn so still runs for Paul Nicholls. He made his hunter chase debut in March in the 2m race at Leicester and had a fairly comfortable success when he outclassed his rivals. He had pulled up on his two previous starts in handicaps so dropping down to this level worked. He then ran in the Aintree Foxhunters and ran well enough before getting a bit tired late on to finish a 36L 8th. He does have a lot of weight to carry, but has to be one of the possible winners.

 

Kaproyale - Won this contest last year in good style when he beat Magic Saint. He's only had 3 starts this season. He was a solid 2^nd at Hereford in January and then won a point at Charing in March which was decent enough as he isn't the strongest stayer at 3m. Then last month he went back to hunter chases and ran terribly at Kempton where he ended up being a well beaten 5th. That run was too bad to be true so I can forgive him that and he has a chance of keeping his title, but I do think there is more depth to this race than last year.

 

Fier Jaguen - I was right to take him on at Cheltenham as he didn't win although I didn't find the right one to beat him. His jumping to his right wasn't quite as bad as it usually is that night, but he was running on empty after the last and A Jet Of Our Own managed to run him down. I don't think he's been as good this season as he was last season and the Cheltenham run backed that up although it was still a decent effort. This is a front runners track so he could well make all, but this is not the track where you want to be jumping out to your right given how tight it is and I can see him losing many lengths at the fences.

 

Calidad - Was stuffed off 86 in a handicap in November and whilst his two 3rds in points this month haven't been too bad it is hard to see him getting involved.

 

Cat Tiger - I don't think he is quite as good as he was, but I did think he ran very well at Cheltenham last time when finishing a length 2^nd to Rebel Dawn Rising. Dare I say it but if you swap the jockey's around I actually think you might have got a different result. It's been a long time since he ran over a trip this short, but he has to go on the shortlist on the back of the Cheltenham effort.

 

Cooldine Bog - Actually didn't run to bad in the race won by Cap Du Mathan at Leicester in March and was badly hampered at 3 out when he unseated his jockey. His next hunter chase run came at Cheltenham where he made the running for a bit before tailing off and pulling up in the same race as Cat Tiger. He ran in a point on Sunday and was a well beaten 4th, but he didn't stay after leading for a fair way. Dropping back down to this trip will help him, but hard to see how he can lead in front of Fier Jaguen and chances are he wont be good enough.

 

Mix Of Clover - Well beaten off 104 in a Worcester handicap in September and struggled to get round when he went pointing this year as he unseated the first twice and then ran out. He has completed on his next two starts both over 2m4f where he hasn't looked to stay in what were decent enough races. Clearly the 2m trip is what he needs, but he has been making the running and that is going to be tough for him to do here.

 

Olly Norse - The 12L 2^nd to Deise Aba at Larkhill on New Years Eve was a decent enough effort and he was 2^nd again at Garthorpe just over a month later. He didn't run again until the Intermediate Final where he was a well beaten 8th. This will be a very different test and hard to see him being good enough.

 

Rewritetherules - Was 3^rd in this race last year although 17.5L behind Kaproyale. This year he has pulled up in all 4 starts and it is hard to see him even getting close to repeating his 3^rd let alone do better.

 

The Golden Rebel - Was a reasonable handicap chaser for Ben Case during 2021 and 2022, but was off for 492 days before making his debut for current connections in a point over 2m4f last month. Was last that day and hard to make a case for him here.

 

Missed Tee - Looks set to finally get some decent ground which is beginning to look crucial for her after he runs so far this year. She was well backed ahead of her hunter chase debut, but was very keen and didn't see it out in testing ground over 2m5f at Stratford in the race won by Forest Chimes. 10 days later she went to Ludlow and she was really keen again although I don't think it helped her that she was taken on for the lead as it probably made her go even quicker. There was the odd mistake, but nothing as bad as at Stratford or her last start for the Skelton's at Ludlow and I certainly saw more promise there than I did at Stratford. I actually thought she might have dropped out when the 2nd tried to go on leaving the back, but she didn't and it was only after the last where she really weakened. She was keen again at Cheltenham and I can understand why Immy tried to find the better ground on the outside of Fier Jaguen, but you never really want to be the outside of him given how he jumps. She was a 20L 3^rd in the end so does have a lot of ground to make up on Fier Jaguen, but with this ground set to suit her much better she might well be able to reverse that form although ideally she will need to settle better in behind horses given how much pace there is going to be.

 

Verdict - I'm going to take Fier Jaguen on again. If he jumps as badly out to his right as he can do then I think he will do very well to win a race that I think is a bit stronger than the Cheltenham race has been this year and last year. I was tempted to back Cat Tiger because I do love that Cheltenham race as mentioned in the previous contest, but whilst I used to have no issue with backing Maxwell I do think he has gone backwards as a jockey and also I don't think he has ever ridden Stratford well which is backed up by the fact that in 9 rides at the track the best he has managed is one 2nd. Cap Du Mathan has plenty of weight, but he does have a chance. Whilst I do think this race is stronger than last year, course form is crucial at Stratford so I will give Kaproyale a chance to bounce back from a run at Kempton which was too bad to be true. He's the saver bet, but the main bet is Missed Tee e/w. Hopefully with better ground Immy will be able to keep on the right side of Fier Jaguen which she couldn't do at Cheltenham. I know it is a lot of ground to make up on him, but I really do think the better ground will give her the chance to get closer and hopefully actually get past him.

 

Missed Tee 1pt e/w @ 12/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair and William Hill (14/1 with Bet365 and take up to 7/1)

Kaproyale 0.5pts @ 13/2 with Bet365 and William Hill (take up to 5/1)

[black rabbit]

marvellous  input 👏