NFL Week 4

[thephysician]

Just started looking but these peak my curiousity. Will update my strength rating later on tonight before going anywhere with them, but: Detroit @ Tampa, -6.5 If Joey Harrington has even half the bad day at the office he had two weeks ago at Chicago, the Buccs will be all over him defensively, while Cadillac looks good to rush for 100 yards+ against a very average rush defence. Pick Tampa. 34 point over/under almost makes me want to go over to, but that relies of Tampa giving up points or really going to town, and not quite sure that's on. Philadelphia @ Kansas City, -2.5 I actually like the money line on the Eagles at 2.1 here, rather than the point spread. Yes McNabb is banged up with a sports hernia. Yes the Chiefs can go ballastic on you, but as the Broncos should, score early against the Cheifs and stuff the run and they can't get the O moving. I expect the Eagles to win here and keep their momentum up. Indianapolis @ Tennessee, -7 How do the Titans score here? The Colts defence is TOUGH, and giving up nothing. This means Manning and co aren't really go all out on offence, and realyl don't need to this week either. Some people seem to think they're keeping it hidden till needed. I don't quite buy that... you need game experience to keep your offence fresh. That said, Under 45 looks a steal again this week to me. Even if Manning goes off, you can get a 6 TD game here and still take home the bookies cash. Those are my 3 most likely plays right now. (2 from 3 last week, 5 from 13 for the season). I'm sure I'll pick up some good tips here anyways or moneyline bets from the comparison of strength I'll do.

[TazaD]

Re: NFL Week 4 Damn, physician...we have to stop disagreeing like this!! I reckon I'll be on the opposite side of 2 of those games....and TB-6.5 looks too good to be true, esp. when it got bet up to 7 and quickly dropped back to 6.5?? Cinci -9.5 This one almost loks too easy aswell, but Cinci figure to put up some very big numbers here. Simple logic says that Cinci have scored 27, 24 (away) and 37 at home. Houston have scored 7 and 7 and don't look like they could stop a high school team. I just don't think this one is even close. No trends or long-winded reasons here, just a good team beating the pants off a crappy one. Washington v. Seattle under 36.5 One of my all time favourite systems in play in this game.... League: 6-35 under (Av 33.4...-7.0) home 3- fav off a BYE. [Wash] (1-21 under (av. 31.6...-9.1) since 1997!!) 0-7 under (av. 26.0...-9.2) if total

[thephysician]

Re: NFL Week 4 Well, I think we only really disagree on one play, thats the Eagles @ Chiefs. . You can have the Titans +7, I'll take the under, and a 20-21 result will make us both happy. I should post with the actual bet I'm looking at rather than the line... I'm not quite sure what you mean by the Lions/Rams line being to good to be true. I just can't see how Detroit expect to stay within one TD. Once you take away Kevin Jones, Harrington will can't be trusted to get anything going in the air. Like the Seattle/Washinton pick, and hadn't looked close enough at the Bengals, so may well follow you there.

[TazaD]

Re: NFL Week 4

Well' date=' I think we only really disagree on one play, thats the Eagles @ Chiefs. [img']http://punterslounge.com/forum/images/smilies/happy.gif. You can have the Titans +7, I'll take the under, and a 20-21 result will make us both happy. .

Yep! Sounds good to me mate. :ok Not sure whether to hold on and hope for a 7.5?...Not likely I don't think. Tampa/Lions...what you said! :D I can't possibly see how Det stay within a TD either!!...which makes the -6.5 slightly fishy to me. I've just done up some stats..although what you can take out of 3 (or 2 even) games I'm not quite sure. One thing that did interest me was Detroit's pass D. 4.83 y/pass is second only to Buffalo! I realise they've only played Green Bay and Chicago, but they did a better job on Favre than Tampa did. I'm starting to see this one as a legitimate under (any 34.5's about?). Detroit shouldn't score, and Tampa will be happy to run it down their throat. Some real numbers to back up some plays I've already put down.... Houston allow 8.51 y/pass..the worst in the NFL...they gain 2.83 y/pass! :rollin They could have some success on the ground, but inevitable turn-over's and big plays will bury them. Washington allow just 2.8 y/rush (2nd best to Tampa), and both the 'Skins and Seattle allow just on 6 y/pass and ~55%, so I reckon both sides (esp. Wash) will be happy to keep in on the ground. A couple of other games that look worth playing are: San Fran/Arizona over 42.5. 2 terrible defenses. I think the total is a bit lower for 2 reasons; Warner out, and the game being in Mexico City. But, both meetings last season ended 31-28...and both with McCown at QB for Arizona. Like this one at 43 or less. Also Minni/Atlanta under 44.5. Seems high for an Atlanta game, who run it over 60% of the time. Both teams have reasonable pass D, allowing ~55%. Atl allow just 5.57 y/pass...Minni 7.1, but Falcons gain just 5.64 y/pass. I don't think the total should be any higher than 40, so I might give the under a shot. :cheers

[thephysician]

Re: NFL Week 4 I'm starting to see this one as a legitimate under (any 34.5's about?). Detroit shouldn't score, and Tampa will be happy to run it down their throat. 5/6 available at Totesport. The only thing that keeps me off the under is Harrington. If he throws up as many bad passes as he did against Chicago, it's not Tampa's Offence that will score the points... I think Detroit have a decent secondary and have played against a poor Chicago O, and Favre whose past it and has poor recievers, hence the numbers.

[gazzyg]

Re: NFL Week 4 After a :wall why doubt one of the gutsiest teams in football again moment last week (cracking game though even if I lost :D ) I'm gonna go San Diego + 5.5 v Patriots. Think the combination of the Charger offence finally starting to click Sunday and the exhertions of the NE Defence last week, in what has become an annual show of D power v Steelers,just may take it's toll on a NE side racking up the injuries especialy in the secondary. Patriots most likely happy to keep this tight with the trusty boot of Venatieri to land the killer blow if need be. Can see Chargers putting a min of 24 on the board meaning Brady's Offence having to score about 4 TD's to cover. Not ever gonna say they won't win ever again but think it'll be closer than 5.5 On the sideline wily old fox Marty Schottenheimer seems to know a little about how to play NE with a 6-1 record against them.

[Fin090]

Re: NFL Week 4 Not posted for ages but love to bet on NFL. Gotta be the Titans +7 for me. Colts D is so overrated it's unbelieveable, they haven't even come up against a half decent O yet. Any team with McNair at QB always has a chance and I've got a feeling Chris Brown is gonna get 30+ touches this week. The Colts have had Tennessee's number for the past 2 seasons but these games are always brutal with only one meeting being a blowout (end of last season in Indy a depleted Tennessee team with nothing to lose went to indy and tried about 4 onsides kicks and 3 fake punts en route to about a 50-27 loss). Tennessee @ the colliseum are always tough and the D line and linebackers are as good as any in the league. Only concern is the 2ndary where Pacman Jones makes his first start, got a feeling Reggie Wayne will have some success early on against him. On the injury front I think Titans will have ''fat' Albert Haybesworth back who the Baltimore o-line are probs still having nightmares about. Don't think Freeney will be too much of a factor because Hopkins has kept him in check in all their meetings, giving up about a sack a game, maybe less. To summarise, Jeff Fisher will emphasise ball control, tons of Chris Brown and plenty of Mcnair check downs to the likes of Kinney and Troupe. Manning will make plays, he always does, but if Indy are to come out on top of this one I think it will be by a maximum of 3 or 4.

[TazaD]

Re: NFL Week 4 Played SF/Arizona over 42.5. That will do for the week I reckon...Although I might have a sucker teaser of: Det/TB under 40.5, Denver/Jax under 43 and Buff/NO under 46 ;) Good luck this week guys.

[equinoxx]

Re: NFL Week 4 I am with you on the SF / AZ Taza. Not sure what else to do just yet although my inner feeling is this is the week of the Indianapolis offence. Good lucks folks. LET'S PLAY BALL!

[Valiant23]

Re: NFL Week 4 2.05 +3 Dallas @ Oakland -3 1.80 Someone help me please. I realise Dallas should be 3-0, but surely Oakland have to win this game? Thing is @ william hills they are giving above evens AND points on Dallas. My heart says Raiders, but my wallet says Dallas. Do I listen to my wallet? Indy under score has been good to me so far, so its another week of :hope that either Indys dominant D/misfiring O/Weak opposition. Whatever the reasons you have to respect the fact that Indy have given up very few points. To my cost last week I believed they'd cover.:@ Eagles @ KC Chiefs My initial thoughts were 'It's the Eagles AND they're giving us points :clap'. However I'm siding with TazaD about how well they're playing at the moment. Oakland gave them a game last week. Holmes and Gonzalez for me will do damage this week, but I'll file this under 'to close to call'. This weeks 'winning margin' bet Philly (1-6) @ 5.00 AND KC (1-6) @ 4.33. Detroit @ Tampa Bay(-6.5) Sorry TazaD, but what you said about Houston/Cinnci could almost be applied here, although I don't think Detroit are that bad I do think they are misfiring big time, which you don't need when you come up against a side as good as TB are at the moment. It would give me pause were it more than 7, but is isn't, so it won't. So far 10/18 on this thread; http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/showthread.php?t=18892&page=2&pp=20 6/9 on this one http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/showthread.php?t=19393 plus my winning margin bet on Pitts/NE gave a nice return too. :clap Thank you all for your opinions. :notworthy

[TazaD]

Re: NFL Week 4 Wallet or not you can get a much better price @ Pinnacle...or +3.5 at most other places, Valient. ;) Oh, and another anti-Philli thought is that Akers is out. Not sure who they've got in to do the kicking tbh, but obviously less distance/accuracy on FG's, but also less distance/height on kick-offs. Helloooooo, Dante Hall! (Todd France is in apprently. Good luck champ! ;)) I've got a real feeling (feeling only mind you!) that Detroit really shut down Tampa. I can see the Bucs winning 13-10 or 10-7 or something stupid. I'm pretty excited about this week....I sure hope that that isn't a bad thing! :(

[Valiant23]

Re: NFL Week 4

Oh, and another anti-Philli thought is that Akers is out. Not sure who they've got in to do the kicking tbh, but obviously less distance/accuracy on FG's, but also less distance/height on kick-offs. Helloooooo, Dante Hall! (Todd France is in apprently. Good luck champ! ;))

I forgot about that-I think on the 'blocked' extra point against Raiders it was a middle-linebacker or a safety who kicked it - against a Philly players shoulder. :lol Great observation about Dante Hall.

I've got a real feeling (feeling only mind you!) that Detroit really shut down Tampa. I can see the Bucs winning 13-10 or 10-7 or something stupid. I'm pretty excited about this week....I sure hope that that isn't a bad thing! :(

Are you sure this isn't the fan talking Taza?;) Don't get me wrong I understand and respect your view about Detroit being a young side with talent, but performance-wise you must admit less than 7 with homefield is a pretty good line (trap or not). I thinkthe deciding factor in choosing between Cinnci or TB is the spread (for me). Mate as you're a fan I expect it rammed down my throat if I'm wrong on this, and the only pleasure I'll get is if I get to collect-nothing more. ;) btw with my fans hat on. I've seen all (:ok) of Oaklands game this year on TV, and imo they are improving as each game passes. This must be cause for concern for any Dallas backers this week.The fan in me still believes that we can make the play-offs, although I'd settle for an 8-8 or 9-7 season. :hope

[TazaD]

Re: NFL Week 4 No, no, mate. While I am a Detroit fan, it certainly hasd nothing to do with me "feeling"!! Na....quite the opposite infact. I can see the offense getting so bogged down that it will be embarrassing....but I can't see Tampa a) wanting to, or b) being able to!..put up a big score. I just see them running, running, running.....running.....being happy to win the game with defense and good field position. I'm with you guys 100%, that I don't see Detroit winning, or even being in this game....but I won't be at all surprised if Tampa don't win by more than 3 or 4.....

[gazzyg]

Re: NFL Week 4 Very like minded calls his week Agree with most Tampa in a low scorer Bengals to cover their spread For my own offering I'm doing San Diego + 5.5 and over 16 HT in the Jets/Ravens clash ...just feel this pair don't have to be that good ....mistakes alone may give up 2 TD's and a FG through a half of play. All the best

[TazaD]

Re: NFL Week 4

Bengals to cover their spread

Just a couple more numbers to back this one up... The past backs us up here as the league is a perfect 7-0 ATS since 1989 (as far back as the database goes) when an undefeated team is laying at least a TD at home to a winless team after week 3. The undefeated team has won by an average of a staggering 25.6 ppg and have covered by an average of 10.7 ppg. also... The Texans need to focus on winning games in their division. Houston is 0-6 ATS (-10.8 ppg) in franchise history as a TD+ dog vs a non-divisional opponent before playing against a divisional opponent. :ok

[cains]

Re: NFL Week 4 Hey guys.. Sorry for not posting anything this week.. Had a lot of personal problems.. Hope to get some time next week.. But here is my plays this week.. Wont say much to it.. Got a parlay with, colts, bengals, ravens and buccaneers.. (ALL ATS) I think when colts finaly meet a poor defence, we will see them score the way they did last year.. Bengals. Well it had already been said in here.. (avr. 25p win) Jets lost QB in last week game. Also 2nd QB is out.. They could get slaughtered here.. Bucs.. Im impressed with them so far.. And not impressed with lions.. :ok Hope im not much wrong here. Havent got much time to find info.. Also i got this teaser: Chargers +10 Think we can have an SU win for chargers here Bengals -3,5 Enough said already Bucs -0,5 Same here. ;) 49'ers +8,5 Im a 49'ers. They have made impressive many points so far. And against cards, they have to win.. 49'ers/cards Over 37.5 Game is played on neutral ground in mexico. To get NFL over the boarder.. They just have to make a lot of points, to make it interesting, for the mexicans.. Thats my 2cent this week.. GL everyone

[TazaD]

Re: NFL Week 4 Detroit @ Tampa under 34.5 (1.94) Just scratching to see many points in this one. We all know how good TB are defensively, and I think it's a stretch to see the Lions get 10 or more. (They've averaged about 15 in road games back to the start of last season as it is.) But...and I know it's early!...Detroit have the second best pass D, allowing just 4.83 y/pass. Now, yes, I realise they've played GB and Chicago...But they held Favre to lower numbers than the Tampa D itself. Besides, TB aren't likely to come out throwing. Rushing record in their sites, I can see run after run...being content to win this one with field position and defense. High winds and a forecast thunderstorm can't hurt. NYG -3 (1.89) They figure in the same 8-1-3 ats situation as KC (above), so I'll play now I can get a decent price. Jax -4 (1.97) Bit of a coat-tail from a couple of different sources, but I do like it anyway. Denver have the lowest 3rd down % in the NFL @ 25%! I think they will struggle against a pretty tight Jags D. And, we saw what happened in wk. 1 in the second half when the temp and humidity took over...oh, and what happened to their pass D when Bailey went out That's it! Way, way, wayety, way too many games for me to play, but I do like them all....I hope they like me back!

[Valiant23]

Re: NFL Week 4 TazaD - Hope you see this before KO: taken from covers. They (Dallas) beat SD SU/ATS in week one, but they are 3-15 on AFC Road. Also bad is the fact that they are only 4-12 ATS in the week before facing the Eagles. Not mine, but... :hope anyway.

[TazaD]

Re: NFL Week 4 Thanks Valient. tbh, I'm not all that keen on Dallas. Now it doesn't fit the 'system' (upto +3.5 at most places)... Having said that, I'm not all that keen on some of these team trends either... I've seen that Cinci are something like 1-14 ats in the last 15 wk. 4's! :D....I mean, wtf??!! I'll see how the early games pan out ;)

[Valiant23]

Re: NFL Week 4 Is this an example of a 'tease' 4 fold @ £2.50 Win Cincinnati Bengals (-9.5) Oakland Raiders (-3.5) Detroit Lions @ Tampa Bay Under 34 Baltimore Ravens SU :hope and thanks to all - picking is half the fun. The other half is the winning.;)

[gazzyg]

Re: NFL Week 4 San Diego + 5.5 and over 16 HT in the Jets/Ravens1 outta 2 booo On early 'cause I can't bear any more Jets/Ravens what an awful game :lol down to 14.5 ! the second half and I was considering the under but nooo mistakes happen and most of the favs covered bar Cinci so maybe save my money. Horrible horrible game ...I think my old favorites Scottish Claymores would have pushed either of these :rollin

[Valiant23]

Re: NFL Week 4

San Diego + 5.5 and over 16 HT in the Jets/Ravens1 outta 2 booo On early 'cause I can't bear any more Jets/Ravens what an awful game :lol down to 14.5 ! the second half and I was considering the under but nooo mistakes happen and most of the favs covered bar Cinci so maybe save my money. Horrible horrible game ...I think my old favorites Scottish Claymores would have pushed either of these :rollin

I've put http://www.christiannetcast.com/ on to listen to Raiders. That Ravens game was the worst I've seen so far.

[gazzyg]

Re: NFL Week 4

Cinci -9.5 :unsure Washington v. Seattle under 36.5 :( "17-17 OT Nooo" Dallas +3 :sad NE/SD under 47.5 :cry KC -1.5 :@ Tenn +7 :wall Jax -4 :puke NYG -3 :D Detroit @ Tampa under 34.5 :D (bank manager was happy to see that last sec TD ruled OB) + Played SF/Arizona over 42.5 :D

TAZAD Your Bank Manager says he's a little concerned and that he hopes next week is better :D ....sure it will be mate....baked beans for tea all this week. Couldn't bear any more and didn't back it but see they did actually manage under the 14.5pts offered second half of Ravens/Jets. Right who have those 2 got next week? SKY must have been sooo pleased to have picked such a good advert for the game. And just while I'm here....NFL game for Wembley :@ Don't make me laugh....much as I love watching American Football they should be told to take a hike (toned that down from F off) No way should we line the fat cats pockets.....they showed exactly what they thought of the British fan when they pulled their NFL Europe team out of Scotland to penny pinch on travel costs with yet another German team replacement. Love it but wouldn't welcome them back.

[thephysician]

Re: NFL Week 4 2 from 6 for me! But I'm hardly a betting genius. The worse was the Rams/Lions. I don't mind my Lions losing ifI back against them, they can at least suck majorly for me. I don't mind losing a bet when they win either. But I really object to them -just- losing like that, when they fail to bring home the bacon in the last drive. Gah. Lions fandom? Who'd have it. Second worse was the standard consensus bet I have in my predictions league. If all 8 players go one way, I place an accy on the consensus. Of course, this weekend I went out before last set came in, ony to discover that I'd have had a nice 4-way accumalator come in (Buccs, Bengals, Colts, Eagles). Third worse was prediciting the Pats to win straight up. Ha! Ah well. Next week!

[equinoxx]

Re: NFL Week 4 I had four from six this week. Had them all in four folds so made a small loss. I managed to make some back in the SF / ARZ game and now have a tenner on over 21.5 in the first half with Green Bay / Carolina. I am just doing this over bet for a laugh. Something to enjoy the fiorst half with as I intend to go to sleep after that. I have this feeling that tells me Green Bay will win tonight but I am not putting my money where my mouth is! See you all in week five!

[TazaD]

Re: NFL Week 4 Cinci -9.5 Washington v. Seattle under 36.5 "17-17 OT Nooo" Dallas +3 NE/SD under 47.5 KC -1.5 Tenn +7 Jax -4 NYG -3 Detroit @ Tampa under 34.5 (bank manager was happy to see that last sec TD ruled OB) + Played SF/Arizona over 42.5 Yep. Terrible effort really! Wash/Seattle sucked bigtime. Cinci had 3 trips into the red zone for just 2 FG's...Went from a 1st and goal from the 8 to 4th and 30 odd and missed the FG!! :unsure ...WAY too many penalties...what happens when you play a crap team and aren't switched on I guess. :sad Dallas had 4 shots in the last minute from inside the 10 and blew them all... ...But yeah, all balanced out with the Detroit reversal, which to me, was clearly a TD!! :drums And KC!!!...Don't get me started on how a team nlows a 24-6 lead in about 10 minutes! Anyway, I knew I played way too many games...Won't be nearly as hectic next week.