Tennis Tips - March 18 - March 24

[CzechPunter]

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[CzechPunter]

Cristian Garin to beat Valentin Vacherot at 1.57 with William Hill

Garin is getting a very playable opponent here in conditions he should enjoy more, so I fancy him to get back to winning ways. He still has it, and the occasion will hopefully push him a bit as well.

[Smiles Tennis]

No time for write ups today sorry. 

Sramkova to beat Schmiedlova - 1.95 Betfair

Timofeeva to beat Korpatsch - 1.66 Betfair

Dodin to beat Tauson 3.00 Betfair

[CzechPunter]

Xinyu Wang to beat Hailey Baptiste at 1.67 with Unibet

Wang has a 2-0 record against Baptiste, and this looks like a fairly similar match-up to the one against Tauson from the end of the previous month. The conditions aren't fast by any stretch, and they are also tough physically, which should favor Wang if the match goes on for a while. 

Linda Fruhvirtova to beat Shelby Rogers at 1.80 with Bet365

Rogers has played only 3 matches this year and her fitness is questionable. Linda hasn't been great lately, but she has a lot of match practice under her belt at the very least.

[Smiles Tennis]

Yafan Wang to beat Peyton Stearns - 2.16 Betfair

These odds should be flipped. Stearns in poor form this year with Wang reaching QF's and SF's on hard court. Stearns is 1-3 against Chinese, 1-5 including Juniors and will need a bit turn up in form to hit through Wang, despite a good performance against an average Sabalenka. 

Wang should be favourite here for me. 

 

[Smiles Tennis]

Timofeeva to beat Gracheva - 1.5 on Betfair

 

Gracheva has lost 8 of her last 10 matches and dropping down the rankings. Timofeeva had a good run this year beating some decent players now she's over her foot injury. The faster court will help her attacking shots and she should take this comfortably. 

[Smiles Tennis]

Keys to beat Shnaider - 1.89 on Betfair

Shnaider has been in good form but this moving up a level. Playing top 20 players at a 1000 event will be a heap more pressure, and she might be feeling some fatigue from her recent matches. 

Keys, although hasn't been in great form, will like being back on the faster courts and this looks a good price to take. 

[Smiles Tennis]

Mertens to beat Townsend - 1.61 with Betfair

Mertens is the gatekeeper to seeing if people are top 30 level or not. She beats who she should beat and loses to those she should lose to mostly. She shouldn't lose to Townsend who has only beaten mostly lower ranked players recently, and needed three sets to do it a few times as well. 

[CzechPunter]

Sloane Stephens to beat Sorana Cirstea at 1.80 with William Hill

Stephens put in a surprisingly good performance against Kerber in the previous round, and she managed to beat Cirstea comfortably in Indian Wells, so I quite like the 1.80 that's on offer for her here. It's hard to like Cirstea in her first tournament matches as well.

[neilovan]

19 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Sloane Stephens to beat Sorana Cirstea at 1.80 with William Hill

Stephens put in a surprisingly good performance against Kerber in the previous round, and she managed to beat Cirstea comfortably in Indian Wells, so I quite like the 1.80 that's on offer for her here. It's hard to like Cirstea in her first tournament matches as well.

Have not posted for a while. I think the Stephems  Cirstea match is really 50-50. Stephens won at Indian wells but Cirstea beat her at the Qatar Open 6-2  6-3. I thought Kerber was quite poor in her match with Stephens. Slow on the court and quite a way from top level fitness ... hitting everything at one pace, with a really poor 2nd serve. Made Stephens look way better than she is. I would be interesting to Know when Cirstea got into the West Coast (how many days before match), but she has probably been in Miami for at least a week getting ready. I expect much more from her this time. Her year has really been defined by a terrible start losing 1st round at Brisbane, Adelaide and the Aussie. 

Cirstea is based in Dubai, and may just be a poor traveller. Australia quite a long flisght - poor results. USA West Coast the same.

Edited March 22 by neilovan

[neilovan]

I think Elina Avanesyan has a very good shot at beating Ons Javeur. Jabuer right off form losing in straight sets to Volynets, Tsurenko and Haddad Maia. In between she won a couple of matches against Starodubtseva, Bronzettie and Krueger, but she was an overwhelming favorite for all 3 of those.

Avanesyan demolished Andreeva. It was a proper spanking after being iced 2nd set (6-0  3-6  6-1)

1st set was literally 18 minutes. Andreeva then went for a bathroom break of 6 minutes which is a joke (impossible to be tired after 18 minutes of tennis).  Avanesyan then squashed her in the 3rd (6-1).  Avanesyan is very good. Physically fit and strong, and mentally tough, with confidence and a level of calmness. 

For me Jabeur looks the opposite. Unfit and at odds with her game, having lost 1st match in Qatar and Indian Wells. Taking the straight win for Avanesyan here but may even go whole hog and go for 2-0 in sets which is 4.5

 

I don't think Murray beats Etcheverry. Etcheverry beat him convincingly at the Aussie open, and Murray just does not have the physical capacity to play the grinding game, like he did in the past. He used to be the "Grinder" and now he is the "Grindee".

OK, he beat Berrettini but Berrettini served poorly (64% 1st serve in). I watched Berrettini at the Aussie open v Kevin Anderson a few years back and he made 15 first serves in a row, so he is some way from his best. If his 1st serve is off, he struggles ...  when it's on he gets endless freebee's.

Murray should be figuring out how to shorten matches, volley and be more aggressive. The older he gets, the more his physical ability diminishes. Quicker matches helps him, and grinding 3 setters don't. But he refuses to try andything different, and the old way will not deliver any more.

 

Edited March 22 by neilovan

[Smiles Tennis]

1 hour ago, neilovan said:

Have not posted for a while. I think the Stephems  Cirstea match is really 50-50. Stephens won at Indian wells but Cirstea beat her at the Qatar Open 6-2  6-3. I thought Kerber was quite poor in her match with Stephens. Slow on the court and quite a way from top level fitness ... hitting everything at one pace, with a really poor 2nd serve. Made Stephens look way better than she is. I would be interesting to Know when Cirstea got into the West Coast (how many days before match), but she has probably been in Miami for at least a week getting ready. I expect much more from her this time. Her year has really been defined by a terrible start losing 1st round at Brisbane, Adelaide and the Aussie. 

Cirstea is based in Dubai, and may just be a poor traveller. Australia quite a long flisght - poor results. USA West Coast the same.

This is also Sloane's home tournament so to speak, so she has the advantage there. Against Kerber it's more her style of play that causes Kerber problems. Kerber feeds off of pace and counter punches, redirecting fast balls to move her opponent around, but Sloane hits with more top spin and this prevents Kerber from generating pace off the ball as it comes to her. 

She's always had trouble against top spin hitters and Sloane made it 6-2 I think in the h2h for that reason. 

[Smiles Tennis]

E. Arango to beat L. Fernandez - 4.8 Betfair

Fernandez has lost 4 of her last 5 matches, only beating the horrendously bad Pera recently. She retired in San Diego, on her vlog she was having trouble with her shoulder in Dubai I think it was so that could be the issue with her recent form because shoulders are important in tennis and if it's hurting, you can't play your game. 

Arango on the other hand came through qualifying here with three underdog wins and can move well getting lots of balls back. 

If Leylah is mostly fit she should come through but I think 1.25 is a bit short so going for Arango at this price. 

[CzechPunter]

Thanks guys for all the comments! Hopefully the rain delay changes the momentum!

Yulia Putintseva to beat Greetje Minnen at 1.73 with William Hill

Putintseva has certainly improved a lot since last year, she's leaner and moving better, also less mental demons it seems to me. She even troubled Swiatek a little bit in Indian Wells, though it really wasn't close in the end. Minnen tends to have issues against good defenders, and Putintseva is a first-class one right now, and beating Samsonova in the previous round must've prepared her for this well.

[neilovan]

Two favorites I do like on the woman's side of the draw are Osaka to beat Garcia and Pavlychenkova to beat Alexandrova.

If you get a chance go and look at the highlights from Indian wells in the match between Kostyk and Pavlychenkova. Very high standard match where Kostyk won. There is no better athlete than her on the woman's tour. Olympic athlete quality, with a tennis racquet in her hand. Pavlyochenkova actually played well ... just ran into a buzz saw.  I think she has too much game for Alexandrova here. She is a tough,  physically strong competitor.

Caroline Garcia is not playing well. Lost 1st round of 3 of her last 4 tournaments. Abu Dhabi, Qatar, Dubai and just got over the line at Indian Wells. She is currenlty ranked 27 and that ranking does not lie. Her results in the USA are really poor. For some reason she is not comfortable there. Last season she lost 1st match Miami, Citi Open, Canadian Open, Western & Southern and US Open.  She's getting worse and Osaka is getting better, finding her confidence and fitness.  Garcia beat Osaka a few months ago, but Osaka was early on the comebac path. Will take Osaka and Pavlychenkova as a double. I will also take Osaka as a single in a bigger bet.

 

I think that Paolini has a very good chance to beat Navarro. For Paolini, the rise in the rankings has been crazy. I think she is 13 or 14 ranked now, which is an amazing climb. Both players have very good form at the moment so it will be a tough match. But Paolini has beaten 6 players in a row where she was the underdog, winning the WTA1000 in Dubai. She is in the best form/moment of her (tennis) life. I am not sure the 2.23 on Paolini is worth it. For me the slightly better bet is the over 21.5 games at 1.8 as you could win that in a close match that has a breaker.

 

Edited March 24 by neilovan

[neilovan]

I am loving seeing the end of certain players that have gamed the system and their rankings for years. And it's an art form.

If a player gets automatically into the 9 ATP1000's and the 4 majors they are picking up (9x40K) and 4x75K) or 660 000$ without winning a match. But getting there is the battle, and anyone doing it earned their money. Tennis is just brutal. Not in the top 125, you are struggling.

It is insane money. But players like Fognini, Paire. Opelka, Carballes Beana, Carenno Busta, Rionic,  Wawrinka, Sock, Kyrigos must just give it up and retire.

Free some space up for more of the next gen (Cazaux, Tablio, Arnaldi)..

Two best matches today are probably Dimitrov v. Tabilo and Shapavalov v. Matteo Arnaldi. Grigor is an amazing player. He paints the court, but it is an unbettable match.

In the Arnaldi match I expect Arnaldi to win a close one.

Edited March 24 by neilovan

[Smiles Tennis]

Kasatkina to beat Cirstea - 1.9 with Betfair

Kasatkina leads the h2h 2-1 including a 6-2 6-0 win in Abu Dhabi last month. She was 1.7 for that match so I am a bit confused as to why she's 1.9 today. 

Dasha has already reached two finals this year and had a little drop off in form after those which is to be expected. Most players can't just keep going far week after week, they take a few weeks to recharge and take it easier before the next push. 

Cirstea hasn't been playing too badly, but a SF in Dubai was reached by beating Vondrousova, Vekic, Kenin and Kudermetova, none of which are in form and setting the tour alight. That could slightly hide her level and she's also based in Dubai I believe, or nearby anyway, so it was like a home tournament. 

She's further away here, against someone at a higher level who is recharged after some deep runs and I think 1.9 is worth a punt on Dasha today. 

[four-leaf]

4 hours ago, neilovan said:

I am loving seeing the end of certain players that have gamed the system and their rankings for years. And it's an art form.

If a player gets automatically into the 9 ATP1000's and the 4 majors they are picking up (9x40K) and 4x75K) or 660 000$ without winning a match. But getting there is the battle, and anyone doing it earned their money. Tennis is just brutal. Not in the top 125, you are struggling.

It is insane money. But players like Fognini, Paire. Opelka, Carballes Beana, Carenno Busta, Rionic,  Wawrinka, Sock, Kyrigos must just give it up and retire.

Free some space up for more of the next gen (Cazaux, Tablio, Arnaldi)..

Two best matches today are probably Dimitrov v. Tabilo and Shapavalov v. Matteo Arnaldi. Grigor is an amazing player. He paints the court, but it is an unbettable match.

In the Arnaldi match I expect Arnaldi to win a close one.

But Sock already retired in april last year ?

[neilovan]

1 hour ago, four-leaf said:

But Sock already retired in april last year ?

Just off the top of my head . Not a definitive list.