Australian Jumps Season 2024

[Darran]

Granted Cheltenham is obviously going to take most of the focus, but Tuesday also sees the start of the Australian jumps season at Warrnambool and I am back to cover the season for the 5th time. It has been 2 very profitable years and a couple of small losses. What started as something to focus on during Covid has turned into a real passion. All being well I should be taking in the all jumps card at Pakenham next month on my visit to Australia and I can't wait to see some of these horses in the flesh.

Right onto Warrnambool and we have 3 races an Open Hurdle, a Maiden Hurdle and an Open Steeple.

Race 1

There is actually a Cheltenham link in this first race as Crosshill featured in races against Galopin Des Champs and Gentlemansgame among others when trained by Jessie Harrington. He ran a couple of promising races at Pakenham and in the Grand Annual last year and whilst he did go on to win a maiden on the flat his other jumps starts weren't great. He hasn't run over hurdles in Australia, but his last run in Ireland was a win over hurdles at the Punchestown Festival so he's very capable. He's trialed well and ran a respectable race on the flat last month. 

He does have to give weight away to the very short price fav here though. Teofilo Star ran in 3 hurdles last year and after finishing 2nd at Pakenham he broke his maiden tag over course and distance in May. He impressed that day and he was even more impressive 3 weeks later at Sandown in a BM120 when winning by 15L. He went back on the flat after that and whilst he was well beaten in the Brisbane Cup he did when a BM100 at Flemington just before. He's not run in a race since, but won his last hurdles trial.

Serenade The Stars was behind Crosshill in the trial at Terang last week. He won the first maiden hurdle of the season last year and was then 2nd in his other 2 hurdle starts. He will be fit from the flat.

If Crosshill could run to his Irish form he would be over priced, but I don't think he's been quite up to that level and Teofilo Star looks a potential top notcher over hurdles this season and he ought to win as his odds suggest although 1/14 is very short. Its a race to watch.

Race 2

Only 2 of these have raced over hurdles and Buffalo Bill has had 20 goes without. That clearly makes things tricky especially as none of these have raced at that high a level on the flat. Tarn's Prince is the favourite and he trialed well against some useful horses last week at Terang. I am though going to take a chance on Elementry. Very unusual for top connections to send a horse over hurdles after just one flat run, which granted was awful. He won his 2nd hurdles trial here and beat Antequera into 2nd place. He seemed to enjoy jumping and his jockey seemed keen to try and teach him how to race. He's been very well backed which whilst annoying in one way does add to the confidence that he's going to go very well.

Elementry 1pt @ 7/2 with William Hill

Race 3

There can't be many horses that have run in the Arc and then won a steeplechase, but Nelson has done that having been behind Enable in the Arc and then winning a chase at Coleraine last August. He could win this, but he is very short for me and there could be value elsewhere.

Police Camp is very experienced and was 2nd at a big price in the Grand Annual last year which was actually his last run. I suspect he will need this. 

Mighty Oasis caused a huge shock when he won the Thackeray over course and distance beating the Grand Annual winner Rockstar Ronnie. He had been 2nd in this race last year and he usually runs his race.

Instigator has been a solid hurdler and is making his chasing debut here. He had one steeple trial here and it was OK. I want to see him in a race though before backing him.

Yulong Prince showed some decent form when last seen over fences in 2022. He won a couple over fences including over course and distance and was 2nd to Flying Agent, who was superb that year, in a couple of the big races. Clearly he's been injured since, but he ran in a Picnic (Aussie version of point to point but on the flat) race a couple of weeks ago and then trialed well last week at Terang. 

I'm certain we will have some better punting cards in during the rest of the season, but I will have a couple of small bets on Mighty Oasis and Yulong Prince as I think they are over priced and we might just get Nelson beat.

Yulong Prince 0.5pts @ 17/2 with William Hill

Mighty Oasis 0.5pts @ 7/1 with Bet356

 

[Darran]

Back to Warrnambool for the 2nd meeting of the season for 4 races

 

Race 1

The maiden hurdle has divided and the first division sees G3 winner and 6^th placed in the 2021 Melbourne Cup Grand Promenade make his hurdles debut. I watched his last trial and he jumped well apart from making one bad mistake, but it was good to see that he picked up well from it and it didn't stop him. He finished 2^nd behind Okataina who was given a bold front running ride. In also won his previous trial where he just caught Southern France who had built up a massive lead but got run down. Okataina is nowhere near Grand Promenade's flat ability, but clearly enjoys hurdles and comes from a top yard. 

 

Southern France might ring a bell as he was trained by Aidan O'Brien. He finished 2^nd in the 2018 Queen's Vase at Royal Ascot, 3^rd in that years St Leger, 2^nd in the following year's Yorkshire Cup and 3^rd in the Irish St Leger. He then went over for the Melbourne Cup and only beat 5 home. He then won the G2 Sandown Classic and it looked like he might have a decent Australian career, but he hasn't won since and has really struggled recently. Jumps looks like a last throw of the dice and it will be interesting to see how he gets on, but I can't back him.

 

Tarn's Prince ran well enough when 2^nd here a couple of weeks ago, but I suspect now he's in a proper race that Grand Promenade should be too good for Okataina and the rest.

 

No bet

 

Race 2

This is probably a two horse race unless Elementry steps up from an OK debut a couple of weeks ago. Extra Elusive was trained by Roger Charlton over here and the pick of his efforts would be the Rose Of Lancaster win at Haydock in August 2020. He went downhill from there though and the move to Australia hasn't really worked as that Haydock win is his last win. To be fair he's had some good place efforts and was 2^nd in a good version of the Great Western Cup last time. I liked his trial performance last time which he won at Terang and he jumped really well on the whole.

 

Irish Butterfly is the other at the head of the market and he jumped well enough when winning a trial last time. He was so far clear of the others that you couldn't even see all of his jumps. He's decent enough on the flat as well.

 

I'm going to take Extra Elusive to win this because he is the better horse on the flat and I thought he really attacked his hurdles well in the trial and he could well get the better of his market rival.

 

Extra Elusive 1pt @ 6/5 with everyone

 

Race 3

These BM120 hurdles were tricky last season and we see plenty of the same old faces lining up in this. One exception to that is the favourite Pure Deal and he does strike me as the most likely winner. He has only had 3 starts over hurdles all last April and May. At Pakenham he was a close 3^rd in a maiden which worked out very well and he duly landed his maiden over this course and distance the following month. He then went into BM120 company at Sandown and was very disappointing. Clearly there was a reason for that because he hasn't run in a proper race since. He's had a few jump outs and trials though and he won both hurdles trials at Cranbourne and Terang looking promising in the process. He looks the one horse in this race who could progress higher up the ranks.

 

2^nd in is Abreed and he's only had 4 starts, but he was 7^th in that same Pakenham maiden and he ended up winning his maiden 2 starts later at Sale which isn't as strong form. He was only beaten 0.2L into 3^rd in this grade at Pakenham last July and that's probably why he has the same mark as Pure Deal, but given he has about 10L to make up on the run last April I am happy to back the favourite against him.

 

The rest are all solid horses and capable of winning at some point this season. Count Zero might be the biggest danger as his 2^nd in the Grand National Hurdle obviously reads very well, but he does have a lot of weight because of it. Rising Renown and That's Incranibull have claims and good old El Diez turns up at pretty much every meeting and usually runs his race, but I am happy to go with the least exposed horse in the race.

 

Pure Deal 1pt @ 13/10 with Bet365

 

Race 5

Good to see the Steeplechase on the card has had 13 entries because you don't usually have emergencies in them, but it seems plenty want to go chasing this season. I like Budd Fox here who has only had 3 starts over jumps the first 3 of which came back in 2021. He won a maiden hurdle at Pakenham in April and was then 4^th in a BM120 at Sandown the following month. The following year he ran at the same Pakenham meeting in the BM125 steeplechase and was beaten 0.2L by Valac. He then went missing for 77 weeks and has had 3 starts on the flat plus various trials and jump outs since. That Valac form is very strong and I watched his trial here a couple of weeks ago and he looked in good shape and loved jumping the fences. Even though he hasn't been seen in a jumps race for a long time, he should be fit and with the other jumps form on other not making a huge amount of appeal I am happy to take him as being the best horse in the race.

 

I am also going to have a small e/w bet on Yulong Place who I put up in the first race of the season. He hadn't run since 2022, but had finished 2^nd in the Thackeray and Crisp which were good efforts, plus he was a course and distance winner. He looked very fresh and keen 13 days ago and I thought he ran well until the effort told late on and was allowed to coast home in his own time. He might still need another run, but at huge odds he's worth a small play.

 

Budd Fox 1pt @ 16/5 with Paddy Power and Betfair

Yulong Place 0.5pts e/w @ 22/1 with Bet365