Valiant23 Posted September 22, 2005 Share Posted September 22, 2005 NFL Overs and Unders Value Paper Trail First of all, I'm not thanking TazaD anymore-his help in pointing me towards more and more sources of stats has turned my 1hr of guesswork into 2 days of study, and I haven't even scratched the surface yet, so I'll save my praise til I can show a profit on this system. It does seem each answer poses two more questions. Secondly, these are based on stats, rather than lines that I've made up, which is why it is a paper trail. No cash is being placed (unless I say in the 'official' NFL thread, or my system thread) and it is possible my paper trail will conflict with considered opinion. I am so unconfident in my system I will not post details, but if you are interested, PM me. It is not secrecy, but rather embarrassment at the simplicity of it. This is my first attempt at understanding how lines (in NFL) are made, but I won't know until the end of the season I'm afraid. All games will be rated in 3 ways. 0pts=No value 5pts=Slight value 10pts=Good value All use of the word value is perceived value as I see it. I am not responsible for line shifts after the post for the week. In fact I'm not responsible full-stop.;) My starting bank is 1000pts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted September 22, 2005 Author Share Posted September 22, 2005 Re: NFL Overs/Unders A Search For Value NFL Week 3 All markets are Victor Chandler All bets @ 1.90. Cleveland Browns @ Indianapolis Colts 10pts UNDER 47 Jacksonville Jaguars @ NY Jets 5pts UNDER 34 New Orleans Saints @ Minnesota Vikings 5pts UNDER 44.5 Oakland Raiders @ Philadelphia Eagles 5pts UNDER 46 Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Green Bay Packers 5pts UNDER 37.5 Tennessee Titans @ St Louis Rams 5pts UNDER 45.5 Dallas Cowboys @ San Francisco 49`ers 5pts OVER 41 NY Giants @ San Diego Chargers 5pts OVER 42.5 Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos 10pts UNDER 47.5 55pts staked on 9 matches. :hope Current bank 945pts Total staked 55pts Number of bets 9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted September 29, 2005 Author Share Posted September 29, 2005 Re: NFL Overs/Unders A Search For Value NFL Week 3 All markets are Victor Chandler All bets @ 1.90. Cleveland Browns @ Indianapolis Colts 10pts UNDER 47:clap returns 19.00 Jacksonville Jaguars @ NY Jets 5pts UNDER 34:@ New Orleans Saints @ Minnesota Vikings 5pts UNDER 44.5:@ Oakland Raiders @ Philadelphia Eagles 5pts UNDER 46:clap returns 9.50 Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Green Bay Packers 5pts UNDER 37.5:clap returns 9.50 Tennessee Titans @ St Louis Rams 5pts UNDER 45.5:@ Dallas Cowboys @ San Francisco 49`ers 5pts OVER 41:clap returns 9.50 NY Giants @ San Diego Chargers 5pts OVER 42.5:clap returns 9.50 Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos 10pts UNDER 47.5:clap returns 19.00 55pts staked on 9 matches. :hope Current bank 945pts Total staked 55pts Number of bets 9 Starting bank 1000pts Current bank (945) 1021pts Total staked 55pts Number of bets 9 Winning bets 6 Losing bets 3 Strike rate 6/9= 66.67% Yield = Profit/Loss / Total staked ( written as a percentage ). Can someone please post what figures I need to provide my yeild so far. Thanks. (I think it is 76/15/55=. Is that correct?) Profit/Loss +21pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaded Posted September 29, 2005 Share Posted September 29, 2005 Re: NFL Overs/Unders A Search For Value I THINK your yield is 21/55 (profit/total points staked), which works out at about 37.8% if I've done the sum correctly. (Too lazy to bring up calculator!) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted September 30, 2005 Author Share Posted September 30, 2005 Re: NFL Overs/Unders A Search For Value Thanks Jaded. You were very close (yield=38.18%). :clap NFL Week 4 All markets are Victor Chandler. All bets @ 1.90. Buffalo Bills at New Orleans Saints, 1:00 p.m. 5pts UNDER 39.5 Denver Broncos at Jacksonville Jaguars, 1:00 p.m. 5pts UNDER 36.5 Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals, 1:00 p.m. 5pts OVER 42.5 Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans, 1:00 p.m. 10pts UNDER 46 Philadelphia Eagles at Kansas City Chiefs, 1:00 p.m. 5pts OVER 45 Seattle Seahawks at Washington Redskins, 1:00 p.m. 5pts OVER 36.5 St. Louis Rams at N.Y. Giants, 1:00 p.m. 10pts OVER 46.5 N.Y. Jets at Baltimore Ravens, 4:05 p.m. 5pts OVER 31 San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals, 8:30 p.m. 10pts OVER 42.5 Green Bay Packers at Carolina Panthers, 9:00 p.m. 5pts UNDER 43 Bank (1021) 956pts Total staked 65pts No. of bets 10 :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted October 3, 2005 Author Share Posted October 3, 2005 Re: NFL Overs/Unders A Search For Value I've had to check with VC regarding Washington/Seattle because at f-t the score was 17-17(total 34pts.) which would have meant payouts on the under score of 36.5. In OT Washington scored a FG (3pts) which makes a total of 37 pts which would have meant payouts on the over score of 36.5. Apparently VC payout at the end of the game in NFL, so OT points count, which means that game for me counts as a winner - just. Full update to come.:D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted October 4, 2005 Author Share Posted October 4, 2005 Re: NFL Overs/Unders A Search For Value Thanks Jaded. You were very close (yield=38.18%). :clap NFL Week 4 All markets are Victor Chandler. All bets @ 1.90. Buffalo Bills at New Orleans Saints, 1:00 p.m. 5pts UNDER 39.5 Denver Broncos at Jacksonville Jaguars, 1:00 p.m. 5pts UNDER 36.5 Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals, 1:00 p.m. 5pts OVER 42.5 Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans, 1:00 p.m. 10pts UNDER 46 Philadelphia Eagles at Kansas City Chiefs, 1:00 p.m. 5pts OVER 45 Seattle Seahawks at Washington Redskins, 1:00 p.m. 5pts OVER 36.5 St. Louis Rams at N.Y. Giants, 1:00 p.m. 10pts OVER 46.5 N.Y. Jets at Baltimore Ravens, 4:05 p.m. 5pts OVER 31 San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals, 8:30 p.m. 10pts OVER 42.5 Green Bay Packers at Carolina Panthers, 9:00 p.m. 5pts UNDER 43 Bank (1021) 956pts Total staked 65pts No. of bets 10 :hope Bank update and new selctions to follow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted October 4, 2005 Author Share Posted October 4, 2005 Re: NFL Overs/Unders A Search For Value Winning bets returned; 9.50 9.50 19.00 9.50 9.50 19.00 19.00 Total returns thia week = 95pts Starting bank 1000pts Current bank (956) 1051pts Total staked 120pts Number of bets 19 Winning bets 13 Losing bets 6 Strike rate 13/19=68.42% Yield = 51/120=42.5% Profit/Loss +51pts Profitable weeks: 2/2 I would like this to be a 'conforming' system, so if anyone sees my banking calculations and thinks they're wrong, please don't hesitate to let me know. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chala Posted October 4, 2005 Share Posted October 4, 2005 Re: NFL Overs/Unders A Search For Value Nice start valiant. Where can you watch American football these days? Is it skysports only, or do they show it on any other channels? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted October 5, 2005 Author Share Posted October 5, 2005 Re: NFL Overs/Unders A Search For Value Cheers chala. You get 2 games on Skysports on sunday evening - thats the simple bit. Channel 5 do @ highlights show then MNF just after midnight Mon/Tues. They are also going to show the late game after Skysports (about 0300 mon). BUT on NFLuk the ITV banner is showing, and this is bacause (I think) on 1st Jan 2006 Channel 5 lose the contract and it goes over to ITV - probably the satellite 2,3, or 4(?). If your sad like me you could listen on the internet; http://www.geocities.com/sonapullen/index2.html Some links on there work, some don't. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted October 6, 2005 Author Share Posted October 6, 2005 Re: NFL Overs/Unders A Search For Value Obviously the movers and shakers in Vegas have been watching this thread, because I have so many games that are too close to the 'official' lines.:lol These games apart the difference between my lines and bookies is on average 0.79pts :eek which is why I have only 3 games to play this week :( Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans 40.5 5pts UNDER Indianapolis Colts at San Francisco 49ers 46.5 10 pts UNDER Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals 43 5pts OVER Total staked 20pts Current bank (1051) 1031pts :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
equinoxx Posted October 6, 2005 Share Posted October 6, 2005 Re: NFL Overs/Unders A Search For Value ITV have the terrestrial TV rights to the Superbowl. I am not sure about the TV situation with Channel 5 but I just hope they get that late Sunday game back on. I still need my nine hours of NFL on a Sunday! The problem with Channel Five is they only have rights to the season games and when the play-offs take place they are done on the Saturdays and Sundays which sky has complete UK rights for. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted October 6, 2005 Author Share Posted October 6, 2005 Re: NFL Overs/Unders A Search For Value They have been saying they will be doing the 8.30 (EST) game that kicks off late after this Sunday (I think-keep em peeled). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted October 11, 2005 Author Share Posted October 11, 2005 Re: NFL Overs/Unders A Search For Value Obviously the movers and shakers in Vegas have been watching this thread, because I have so many games that are too close to the 'official' lines.:lol These games apart the difference between my lines and bookies is on average 0.79pts :eek which is why I have only 3 games to play this week :( Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans 40.5 5pts UNDER :@ Indianapolis Colts at San Francisco 49ers 46.5 10 pts UNDER :ok Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals 43 5pts OVER :ok (by 0.5 pts - phew) Total staked 20pts Current bank (1051) 1031pts :hope Bet 1 returned 19pts Bet 2 returned 9.5pts Total returns thia week = 28.5pts Starting bank 1000pts Current bank (1031) 1059.5pts Total staked 140pts Number of bets 22 Winning bets 15 Losing bets 7 Strike rate 15/22=68..18% (down 0.24%) Yield = 59.5/140=42.5% (no change) Profit/Loss +59.5pts Profitable weeks 3/3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted October 11, 2005 Share Posted October 11, 2005 Re: NFL Overs/Unders A Search For Value Yield : A percentage indication of profit or loss per unit. The total amount staked divided by the amount of profit or loss made. This is also sometimes called the ROI, Return On Investment. You've staked a total of 140 points, and gotten a return of 199.5, 199.5/140 = 1.425 or +42.5 % A number above 1 means profit , below 1 means loss. You can do it using the profit only but then you need to apply the - (minus) sign when getting into a loss, in the end a matter of preference. And a very nice start keep it up :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted October 11, 2005 Author Share Posted October 11, 2005 Re: NFL Overs/Unders A Search For Value Thanks Data. :ok I hoped someone would be able to 'translate' my figures for me. I'll be able to do so in future now. I just got a little confused as to which variables go where. And thanks also for the encouragement. :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted October 13, 2005 Author Share Posted October 13, 2005 Re: NFL Overs/Unders A Search For Value Well after a difficult but winning :ok Week 5 this week I've got a few more games to play on, but obviously more to lose. For the record I'm hoping for a 66%-75% strike rate over the regular season to think I'm on to something more than luck. Having said that a profitable system is as good as any, even if it is simplistic. If I achieve a satisfactory strike rate I may consider expanding to include College Football, and maybe NBA and MLB (if it is possible). Week 6 Sunday, Oct. 16 Cincinnati Bengals @ Tennessee Titans 5pts UNDER 45 Jacksonville Jaguars @ Pittsburgh Steelers 10 pts OVER 34.5 Miami Dolphins @Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5pts OVER 34.5 N.Y. Giants @ Dallas Cowboys 5pts OVER 47.5 Washington Redskins @ Kansas City Chiefs 10 pts UNDER 43 N.Y. Jets @ Buffalo Bills 5pts UNDER 33(gulp :hope for a 0-0 draw :lol) San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders 5pts UNDER 50.5 Houston Texans @ Seattle Seahawks 10pts UNDER 46 Monday, Oct. 17 St. Louis Rams @ Indianapolis Colts 10pts UNDER 51.5 Total staked=65pts Current bank=(1059.5) 994.5 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted October 19, 2005 Author Share Posted October 19, 2005 Re: NFL Overs/Unders A Search For Value Cincinnati Bengals @ Tennessee Titans 5pts UNDER 45:@ Jacksonville Jaguars @ Pittsburgh Steelers 10 pts OVER 34.5:ok returns 19pts Miami Dolphins @Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5pts OVER 34.5:ok returns 9.50 N.Y. Giants @ Dallas Cowboys 5pts OVER 47.5:@ Washington Redskins @ Kansas City Chiefs 10 pts UNDER 43:@ N.Y. Jets @ Buffalo Bills 5pts UNDER 33(gulp :hope for a 0-0 draw :lol):@ San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders 5pts UNDER 50.5:ok returns 9.50 Houston Texans @ Seattle Seahawks 10pts UNDER 46:@ Monday, Oct. 17 St. Louis Rams @ Indianapolis Colts 10pts UNDER 51.5:@ Total staked=65pts Current bank=(1059.5) 994.5 pts Total returns this week = 38pts Starting bank 1000pts Current bank (994.5) 1032.5pts Total staked 205pts Number of bets 31 Winning bets 18 Losing bets 13 Strike rate 18/31=58.06% (down 10.12%) Yield = 237.5/205=1.159 Profit/Loss +32.5pts Profitable weeks 3/4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted October 21, 2005 Author Share Posted October 21, 2005 Re: NFL Overs/Unders A Search For Value Week 7 Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans 10pts under 45 New Orleans Saints at St. Louis Rams 10pts over 47 San Francisco 49ers at Washington Redskins 5pts over 36.5 Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks 5pts under 46 Buffalo Bills at Oakland Raiders 5pts under 40 Denver Broncos at N.Y. Giants 5pts over 47 Monday, Oct. 24 N.Y. Jets at Atlanta Falcons MY LINE 5pts under 40.5 Total staked 45pts Current bank (1032.5) 987.5pts :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
devon Posted October 22, 2005 Share Posted October 22, 2005 Re: NFL Overs/Unders A Search For Value Hi Valiant Re your overs and unders - I bet with Lads on line and re your over 45 under 45 etc then on Lads I can only find things like + 1.5 - 1.5 etc can you enlighten me here am I missing something Please. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted October 22, 2005 Author Share Posted October 22, 2005 Re: NFL Overs/Unders A Search For Value Hi devon. I think you may be finding the NFL Handicaps Market. For example this week a line (from William Hills); -1.5 Green Bay At Minnesota +1.5 1.90 which means Minnesota get 1.5 pts start. However, on the same match you can bet on total no. of pts in the game, bet over or under. For this match the total pts are 45. http://www.willhill.com/iibs/EN/buildcoupon.asp You may find more informed help, as well as more info on this thread too. http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/showthread.php?t=20239 Hope this clears things up for you.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted October 27, 2005 Author Share Posted October 27, 2005 Re: NFL Overs/Unders A Search For Value Week 7 Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans 10pts under 45 :@ New Orleans Saints at St. Louis Rams 10pts over 47 :@ San Francisco 49ers at Washington Redskins 5pts over 36.5:ok Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks 5pts under 46:ok Buffalo Bills at Oakland Raiders 5pts under 40:@ Denver Broncos at N.Y. Giants 5pts over 47:@ Monday, Oct. 24 N.Y. Jets at Atlanta Falcons MY LINE 5pts under 40.5:@ Total staked 45pts Current bank (1032.5) 987.5pts :hope Total returns this week = 19pts Starting bank 1000pts Current bank (987.5) 1006.5 Total staked 250pts Number of bets 37 Winning bets 20 Losing bets 17 Strike rate 18/31=54.04% (down 4.02%) Yield = 256.5/250=1.026 Profit/Loss +6.5pts :unsure Week 8 to follow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted October 29, 2005 Author Share Posted October 29, 2005 Re: NFL Overs/Unders A Search For Value There were 1 or 2 that were 1/4pt from being 10pt plays, but I must stick to my rules. Sunday, Oct. 30 Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys, 5pts over 40 Jacksonville Jaguars at St. Louis Rams, 5pts over 43 Miami Dolphins at New Orleans Saints, 5pts over 41 Oakland Raiders at Tennessee Titans, 5pts under 46 Washington Redskins at N.Y. Giants, 5pts over 42 Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers, 5pts under 50.5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers, 5pts over 36 Total staked 35pts Current bank (1006.5) 971.5pts :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cains Posted October 29, 2005 Share Posted October 29, 2005 Re: NFL Overs/Unders A Search For Value hey.. Is it a rule that you have to play after the saturday lines??? Sometimes you will see some movement of half a point on sundays from 5-6 hours before kickoff till kickoff.. That might give you, your 10pts stake, wich will give higher win.. (or bigger loss). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted November 2, 2005 Author Share Posted November 2, 2005 Re: NFL Overs/Unders A Search For Value hey.. Is it a rule that you have to play after the saturday lines??? Sometimes you will see some movement of half a point on sundays from 5-6 hours before kickoff till kickoff.. That might give you, your 10pts stake, wich will give higher win.. (or bigger loss). To be honest mate I place my bets on a Saturday because I get very busy from Saturday afternoon, so it's for comvenience more than anything. If I was playing with cold hard cash then I'd probably have several a/c's just for NFL, and wit until Sunday afternoon, but for now I'm using Bet365 or William Hills. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted November 2, 2005 Author Share Posted November 2, 2005 Re: NFL Overs/Unders A Search For Value There were 1 or 2 that were 1/4pt from being 10pt plays, but I must stick to my rules. Sunday, Oct. 30 Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys, 5pts over 40:ok Jacksonville Jaguars at St. Louis Rams, 5pts over 43:ok Miami Dolphins at New Orleans Saints, 5pts over 41:@ Oakland Raiders at Tennessee Titans, 5pts under 46:@ Washington Redskins at N.Y. Giants, 5pts over 42:@ Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers, 5pts under 50.5:ok Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers, 5pts over 36:@ Total staked 35pts Current bank (1006.5) 971.5pts :hope Total returns this week = 28.5 Starting bank 1000pts Current bank (971.5) 1000:eek Total staked 285pts Number of bets 44 Winning bets 23 Losing bets 21 Strike rate 23/44=52.2754.04% (down 1.77%) Yield = 285/285=1.000 Profit/Loss 0pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted November 4, 2005 Author Share Posted November 4, 2005 Re: NFL Overs/Unders A Search For Value Although giving frisky shit then posting in your own disaster riddled thread is never a good idea, here goes anyway. NFL Week 9 Sunday, Nov. 6 Chicago Bears at New Orleans Saints Total 34pts 5pts under Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings Total 37.5pts 5pts under Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs Total 52pts 5pts under N.Y. Giants at San Francisco 49ers Total 42pts 5pts over Monday, Nov. 7 Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots Total 47.5pts 5pts under Total staked 25pts Current bank (1000) 975pts :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted November 9, 2005 Author Share Posted November 9, 2005 Re: NFL Overs/Unders A Search For Value Chicago Bears at New Orleans Saints Total 34pts 5pts under:@ Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings Total 37.5pts 5pts under:@ Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs Total 52pts 5pts under:ok N.Y. Giants at San Francisco 49ers Total 42pts 5pts over:@ Monday, Nov. 7 Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots Total 47.5pts 5pts under:@ Total returns this week = 9.5 Starting bank 1000pts Current bank (1000) 984.5:eek Total staked 310pts Number of bets 49 Winning bets 24 Losing bets 25 Strike rate 24/49=48.97% Yield = 294.5/310=0.95 Profit/Loss -15.5pts Oh dear Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted November 12, 2005 Author Share Posted November 12, 2005 Re: NFL Overs/Unders A Search For Value NFL Week 10 Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars Total Pts 33 5pts over Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts Total Pts 44.5 10pts under Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants Total Pts 45 5pts under San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears Total Pts 31.5 5pts over Total staked 25pts Current bank (984.5pts) 959.5pts :( :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted November 16, 2005 Author Share Posted November 16, 2005 Re: NFL Overs/Unders A Search For Value NFL Week 10 Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars Total Pts 33 5pts over:$ Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts Total Pts 44.5 10pts under:$ Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants Total Pts 45 5pts under:$ San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears Total Pts 31.5 5pts over:dude Total staked 25pts Current bank (984.5pts) 959.5pts :( :hope Total returns this week = 9.5 Starting bank 1000pts Current bank(959.5) 969pts Total staked 335pts Number of bets 53 Winning bets 25 Losing bets 28 Strike rate 25/53=47.17% Yeild=304/335=0.91 Profit/Loss = -31pts There is still time for this to come good....:lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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