2023 Welsh Grand National Trends - Chepstow on Wednesday 27th December

[White Feather]

• 19 of the last 21 winners finished in the top four places on their last start
• 18 of the last 21 winners were aged between six and nine
• 17 of the last 21 winners had run over a distance of three-and-a-half-miles (28 furlongs) at least once before
• 17 of the last 21 winners had previously won on Very Soft or Heavy ground
• 16 of the last 21 winners carried a weight of 10-10 or less
• 16 of the last 21 winners had run at least twice that season
• 15 of the last 21 winners went off at 10/1 or shorter
• 11 of the last 21 winners had won over fences at Chepstow

[richard-westwood]

I've rated this 

Chambard.  9.2 12/1 class 105 

Big breakaway. 8.9 class 67 

Complete unknown 8.7 class 90

I will do it    8.5 class 46 

Super survivor. 8.2 class 43 

Very difficult race as you'd imagine ......usually you'd favour the lower weights but this year the lower weights look quite poor so I have a strong feeling this will go to one of the listed above ....iwilldoit has a lot of weight but claimer will help and gets the distance so I can see it making the frame .....

Super survivor is well backed but doesn't look that good to me ... .looks very poor value and I'll overlook 

Complete unknown looked a decent horse over middle distances but when stepped up he weakened badly so a further step up again doesn't really look good .....opposed as a result 

Chambard is a horse on upgrade ....form looks strong .....class rating is strong ....average class rating for race is 70 so a class rating if 100 is well in .....looks a very strong Ew bet overall at decent odds 

Big breakaway is a very capable horse on a good day ....gets the distance but has lost his way recently .......is the type to bounce back suddenly but there's a risk if can .....possible Ew play 

Initially I'm going to back chambard Ew at 12/1 5pts Ew as I think that looks excellent value  and make a decision on other two nearer the time 

Chambard 5ptsew 12/1 wil hill

 

Edited December 24, 2023 by richard-westwood