Long Walk Hurdle 2023 -Key Trends & Stats To Help Find Saturday’s Ascot Winner

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Recent Run: Look For An Outing Within The Last 7 Weeks

With a massive 95% of the last 21 winners of the Long Walk Hurdle having raced in the last seven weeks, this a great place to start your search for the Ascot winner.

Most of the 2023 runners will fit the bill, but one that doesn’t is the 2021 winner Champ, who is back from a 252-day break.

Linked to this Long Walk Hurdle trend is to also respect horses that ran at Newbury last time out. 13 of the last 21 winners backed this stat up, including last year’s winner Paisley Park, who was a close second in the Long Distance Hurdle at the Berkshire track.

Form: At Top Three Finish (At Worse) Is A Big Plus

Just under half of the last 21 Long Walk Hurdle winners won their last race (48%), which is a nice return. However, this increases to 86% if we just focus of those with a top three finish last time out.

Favourites: The Market Leaders Have Fared Well

The Long Walk Hurdle hasn’t produced a winning favourite since 2019, but overall (in the last 21 runnings) the race still has a solid record for market leaders. 10 of the last 21 jollies have won (48%).

Top Stayers Hurdle Guide: Look Back On The Race Come Cheltenham

This Ascot race is also used in the campaigns of horses with the Stayers’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival on their agendas.

In the last 21 runnings a massive 20 Long Walk Hurdle winners went onto run in that Cheltenham race that term – with six winning and four finishing runner-up.

The horses to win both race in the same season were – Baracouda (2001/02), Big Buck’s (2009/10, 2010/11 & 2011/12), Thistlecrack (2015/14), Paisley Park (2018/19).

Past Winners: Respect Recent Heroes

This Ascot race also has a habit of throwing up repeat winners as since 2000, there’s been nine occasions that saw a horse winning the race for at least the second time. Baracouda (3), Big Buck’s (2) Reve De Sivola (2) Paisley Park (2).

Age: Horses Aged 8 Or Younger Have The Best Record

Champ and Paisley Park have defied their ages to win the Long Walk Hurdle at 9 and 10 year-olds in the last two runnings. However, prior to that the trends tell us to focus more on horses aged 8 or younger.

76% of the last 21 winners were aged 8 or younger, while since 1992 the race has produced just five winners aged 9+.

Trainers: Respect Nicholls, Henderson And Lavelle

We’ve had a splattering of different yards winning the Long Walk Hurdle over the years, but since 2008 the Nicky Henderson (2), Paul Nicholls (3) and Emma Lavelle (3) teams are the ones with the slightly better records. All three should be represented again in 2023.

• Emma Lavelle – Paisley Park
• Nicky Henderson – Champ
• Paul Nicholls – Red Risk, Blueking D’Oroux