NFL Week 13 - Predictions

[harry_rag]

Week 13 already! I wish the games were spread out like last week every week, it makes Sunday's much more manageable!

[PercyP]

Week 12 Results

Picks 5 Won 2 Lost 3, Staked 30 points, Returned Nil points for a loss of 30.00 points.

ATS YTD record

Picks 60 = W30 D4 L26 – staked 360.00 points – returned 780.09 points resulting in a 2023 seasonal profit of +420.09 points

1. Dolphins to win ATS -10.0 points @ 10/11 – FRIDAY NIGHT – Jets outgunned by Dolphins 34-13 = WON

The Jets offence has been dreadful all season. Dropping Zach Wilson was inevitable. Replacement Tim Boyle a 29 year old journeyman was a back-up for Wilson (so he must be horrendous). Boyle has had three NFL starts which came in 2021 for the Lions; he went 0-3 with three touchdowns and six interceptions. Miami who are ranked first in passing and second in rushing should win this easily, though keeping players safe and healthy will be their main objective. Dolphins won easily.

2. Lions to win ATS -7.50 points @ 10/11 - THURSDAY NIGHT – Packers win straight up 29-22 = LOST

The Lions are ranked fourth in passing yards per game and fifth in rushing yards per game take on a mediocre Packers team. It’s Goff versus Jordan Love. Goff will not play like he did in week 11. Unfortunately he did! Jared Goff lost three fumbles, including one that was returned for a Packers TD in the first quarter. Goff now has six turnovers over his past two games. 

3. Colts to win ATS -2.5 points @ 10/11 – Colts win 27-20 = WON

Whilst the Bucs have been competitive, they are 2-6 in their last eight games. The Colts main weakness is against rushing teams, however the Bucs are dead last in rushing yards per game. Home advantage should enable the Colts to go 6-5. The Colts gave Baker Mayfield, nightmares sacking him six times.

 4. Saints to win on Moneyline @ 10/11 – Falcons beat Saints 24-15 = LOST

Desmond Ridder returns as the starting QB for the Falcons. The second-year quarterback was previously benched because of his inability to avoid turnovers and sacks. Turnovers are the Falcons problem, including Ridder’s six interceptions and seven fumbles. He has been sacked 25 times. It doesn’t help when Saints QB Derek Carr gives away a 92-yard pick-six. The Saints offence was the problem. The Saints made five trips into the red zone and they came away with zero touchdowns

 5. Patriots to win ATS -3.0 points @ 5/6 – Worst game ever, Giants win 10-7 = LOST

 I must be losing it, picking the Patriots to win a game on the road.  However, the Patriots coming off of a bye week will feast on the Giants QB Tommy Devito. He took nine sacks against the Commanders on Sunday. Bill Belichick’s time at New England is coming to an end.

[PercyP]

Week 13 Picks

1. 49Er’s to win ATS -3.0 points @ 20/21

The Eagles are 10-1 and already look bound for the post season games. There is little incentive for them to keep winning, keeping players fit and healthy is their key objective.

After week ten I wrote “49Ers are back to form. With their best players available the 49Ers appear bound for the Super Bowl”. Nothing has changed my mind.

2. Rams to win ATS -3.5 points @ 10/11

The Browns have recently suffered a lot of injuries. If the Rams get out in front then I cannot see how the Browns score enough points to win.

3. Washington to win ATS +9.5 points @ 10/11

The Dolphins are always worth backing at home (5-0). Their record away from home is less impressive (3-3). In the cold weather I shall take Washington to keep it close.

 4. Lions to win ATS -4.0 points @ 10/11

Both the Lions and Saints have been disappointing recently. I am hoping Jared Goff returns to top form this week.

5. Texans to win ATS -3.5 points @ 10/11

The Bronco’s have extended their unbeaten record to 5 games. However, I think they were lucky in their last two games and they are not as good as their record shows. For this reason and a dislike of QB Russell Wilson I would prefer to put my money on C.J.Stroud and the Texans.

Bet:

10 x 1 point trebles

5 x 3 point 4 timers

5 point accumulator

30 points staked

All prices Bet365

[fd1972uk]

Went with cowboys, unfortunately opted for lamb first td on bet builder, if I had opted for 1st team would have come up. Was originally going lamb and pollard any td, but was only just around 3/1, ahh well.

[MinellaWorksop]

Titans won last week leaving the results as:

Home Teams: 6/11 -1.40pts

One Selection this week and one odds boosted bet builder with Hills on the same game.

Home Team: Pittsburgh Steelers 1.36 Hills

The Steelers play at home to the Arizona Cardinals, who in my opinion along with the Carolina Panthers are the two worst teams in the NFL this season. So I will oppose them once again.

Odds boosted bet builder 3 legs:

Pittsburgh Steelers To Win

Diontae Johnson Anytime Touchdown Scorer

Diontae Johnson Over 46.5 Receiving Yards

Odds boosted to 11.80

 

The above is more what I would like to happen rather than based on any stats as Diontae Johnson is in my NFL fantasy football team, so a nice performance from him would be very much preferred lol.

[harry_rag]

Williams 21/20 (Rams), Moss 10/11 (Colts), Gibbs 11/10 (Lions) and Kamara evens (Saints)

Williams very much the strongest selection based on perceived edge.

Might try and find a use for my epic odds boost though could always save it for tomorrow.

[fd1972uk]

Going for 4 games over the NFL night, 2 bets each game.

May watch it all if I can last as I've got the virus, lol, so no work.

Dolphins (go phins)

Hill 1st td, dolphins win, Sanders 3 x EP

Mostert 1st td, dolphins win, dolphins 24+ pts total

 

Steelers

Harris 1st td, Pitt win and pitt 17+ pts

Still to do (ladbrokes isn't showing any td scorers and doesn't seem to have a bet builder option even though I have a free bet, if I can't use I'll use as an outright), however intend to do

Warren 1st td and see what is available should it be ladbrokes or boylesports (have free bets and also they offer quarterback).

 

Eagles

aijuk, mccaffrey and aj brown any td, 46+ pts total

Hurts and mccaffrey any tds , both teams 25pts+

 

Chiefs

Pacheco 1st td, chiefs win, chiefs 20+ pts

Kelce 1st td, chiefs win, still to decide what boyle offers.

 

Any tds acca

Montgomery (lions)

Ekeler (la c)

Harris (pitt)

Hill (phins)

White (tampa)

 

 

[fd1972uk]

Unless Dolphins capitulate, job looks done for that game, even better when it's your team doing it.

TD got off to good start, but Ekeler and Harris could spell trouble, shoulda opted for Henry.

 

[fd1972uk]

Got 2 out of 3 so far but Eagles look really poor and don't think the points total is going to be achieved.

 

[MinellaWorksop]

Pittsburgh Steelers massive disappointment losing to the Arizona Cardinals!?!?

I need to have a lie down in a darkened room to come to terms with this lol.

[harry_rag]

Williams & Kamara for a small profit. Would’ve been pretty much break even to level stakes but I was allowed just less than half stake on one of the losers. One game to go and got that Epic boost to use if nothing else. Think there’s a matched fiver offer with Lads I’m yet to trigger as well.

[fd1972uk]

1 touchdown from AJ Brown would have been perfect would have won 2 bets, but not to be.

Chiefs game was a washout.

Cant believe I never made the acca, lol, should have stuck with my own bets, used the whole Arizona are rubbish for Harris and probably was risky Ekeler.

49ers absolutely blew away Eagles, wouldn't mind that final for a financial bonus, although would prefer my Dolphins, lol, but think they'll come a cropper in coming weeks as some very tough games.

[harry_rag]

And so to the getting out stakes!

Mixon TD 2/1 - not sure he should be quite that big

Jags win, Lawrence to score a TD and Browning at least 1 interception at 15/1 - that's my dart for the double odds boost

Lawrence to score a TD and to throw for 2+ at 8/1 - that gets me the fiver matched bet

[fd1972uk]

888 were offering 5/1 etienne 1st td, had to be done.

Also on quarterback offer via boyle had ridley 1st scorer in a bb, do that's beat.

Also on QB offer have mixon and etienne td, 26+ pts game, -2.5 jags and bothe teams 1 ep, so still a chance with that, but decent profit for tonight, we'll this morning.

Edited December 5, 2023 by fd1972uk
Edit

[harry_rag]

Can’t complain with landing 2/1 and 8/1 shots though would’ve been nice if the 15/1 shot could’ve gotten over the line! Would’ve put me in front for the season.