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Racing Chat - Friday 29th September

The Brigadier

By The Brigadier
in At The Races - Racing Forum

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The Brigadier

The Brigadier

Posted
Posted
Newmarket 1.50
A dozen fillies or mares aged three years or older line up for the listed Rosemary Stakes over 1M. One of the three officially best in here is the John & Thady Gosden trained Queen For You who was back in form last time at Sandown in the 1M Group 3 Atalanta Stakes in first time cheek pieces when runner up to the progressive Heredia. She holds both Potapova and Coppice on that run (although the latter’s saddle did slip that day) and should be highly competitive here under Rab Havlin.
 
QUEEN FOR YOU 1 point each way @ 6/1 bet365 1/5th 1234
 
Newmarket 2.25
Eleven fillies and mares aged three and upwards have declared for this 1M 4F Group 3 Dubai Stakes. Several hold claims with the progressive three year old Sea Theme trained by William Haggas the pick. She’s one of the most lightly raced in the field and impressed when taking the Galtres Stakes at York’s Ebor meeting last month by a head from One Evening who’s gone on to run well in defeat in a Group 2 at Doncaster. With further improvement likely she can take this en route to a tilt at the Group 1 Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes at Ascot next month.
 
SEA THEME 1 point each way @ 8/1 bet365 1/5th 1234
 
QUEEN FOR YOU (1.50) 6/1 & SEA THEME (2.25) 8/1 1 point each way double with bet365 (1/5th odds both 1234)
 
Newmarket 3.00
The Group 2 Rockfel Stakes is a 7F contest for two year old fillies and has attracted a field of eight this year. Aidan O’Brien’s Moyglare Stud Stakes flop Ylang Ylang is an intriguing runner but she may have to play second fiddle to Ollie Sangster’s Shuwari. Sangster, in his first season as a trainer, has a smart looking sort in this chestnut New Bay filly who’s listed win at Sandown in July has been boosted serval times since with the horse he beat into second Fallen Angel having won twice since in Group 3 and Group 1 company. That was gained on soft ground but she had previously won on fast ground and her jockey Oisin Murphy said afterwards that he felt she would be better on a sounder surface.
 
SHUWARI 2 points win @ 2/1 Paddy Power
 
Newmarket 3.35
A competitive renewal of the Group 2 Joel Stakes with all six having a chance of sorts. The two I like though are Chindit who has conditions to suit and comes here in a rich vein of form and Charlie Hills’s Mutasaabeq who despite a 3lb penalty is the pick. He took this last year in first time blinkers and impressed under a penalty when running away with the Group 2 bet365 Mile over course and distance back in May. That took his Rowley Mile form figures to 11711 and as he obviously loves this track so much can strike again under Jim Crowley.
 
MUTASAABEQ 1 point win @ 7/2 BetVictor
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Brahmin

Brahmin

Posted
Posted (edited)

we did nicely on Thursday with nice profit, and last Saturday had 3 nice wins from  @The Brigadier  soooo between both with our friends at the course Friday, will get some nice winners i hope 🤞............

course tips 3.00  Shuwari 13/8 ...3.35  Mutasaabeq 3/1  WON .......Tip at Hay in 3.10  Global Skies 4/1 WON    (had bit in hand going away)

 

Newm 1.50      Queen for you  6/1 EW      4th                 Astral Beau  11/1 EW                    4 places 

Newm 2.25      Sweet Memories  3/1                Sea Theme  11/2                  Elegancia  33/1 EW         

Newm 3.35       Mutasaabeq    3/1   (main bet)   WON              Chindit  10/3

 

                         2 WINS 🏆 🏆 and 1 EW so nice profit today like yesterday 👍 

Edited by Brahmin
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kensland

kensland

Posted
Posted (edited)

Newmarket. 

Single 

5.20. Tregony         18/1        1st 

Newcastle. 

Double. 

7.00. Bernie the Bear     2/1     2nd 

7.30. Mawada                    11/1    unpl 

singles & double 

Good luck all. 

Edited by kensland
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richard-westwood

richard-westwood

Posted
Posted

Just on the hunt for some value 

150 newm 

Astral beau. 8.7 12/1

Amayneh. 8.5 16/1

Coppice. 8.2 11/2

Tarawah. 8.1

Queen for you 8.1.

Bookies really fancy the bottom 3 rated .....but the top 2 look value bets Ew ....so I'll play and hope they outrun their odds 

5pt Ew top 2

 

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Sporting Sam

Sporting Sam

Posted
Posted


Worcester 2:15

Moffassa 

win

a stable switcher debuts for Paul Nicholls here and was a fairly decent prospect over hurdles running well in a grade two and running with real ability over hurdles in good company.

Harry Cobden gets the ride and normal changes for fences will have been made top of the list being schooled. Sure to come on for this ride but he often has them ready first time. So a couple of quid on a win with other fancied runners leading the market and he can only learn here. Will do no harm. 

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Sporting Sam

Sporting Sam

Posted
Posted

Worcester 1450

mutual respect

win

ran into a stable switcher who  had never run over fences previously  but had been allowed to run off a rating 30lb below hurdles mark. Ran well in the circumstances and as a previous winner the race before, likely now to resume that path.

vinnie the hoodie

small each way

the new top weight after the defection of two horses including chess player but likely beneficiary is mutual respect as the bottom weight here.

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Sporting Sam

Sporting Sam

Posted
Posted (edited)

After a very nice start with a massive winner in the opener with western stars pulling clear to break more hearts for 1/100 backers . 15/2 went quickly in the ring and went off 9/2. Popotova also ran close at Newmarket at 8/1 each way. Otherwise it is hard going but good to get a winner at Doncaster.

later on at Dundalk in the opening claimer at 1635

Un Bacio Ancora

win

has all the factors in his favour. A very good second at the curragh last weekend, the draw data stats and the free energy theory all support this horse. A full runners analysis of the last two runnings points strongly to stall 6 which is ideal as that runner is out and drawn alongside the selection in stall 8. Saturday’s winner hold strong form lines  through Sioux spirit and was rated 92. The selections been raised 8 pounds but was up in the low 70s for Edmund Harty and here  two visits ago in February, ran third giving away lumps of weight. So definitely acts on the going and should get this, rated a long way clear and in form. Siobhan Rutledge claims three pounds too.

The only likely danger is Jalo who ran well here the last time Colin Keane rode him for Noel Meade he is drawn alongside in stall 7. Colin Keane often rides and assesses horses advising the yard on what to do to improve a horse either headgear or a change in trip or tactics and obviously even though it was a while ago change in trip was the advice and Keane is back on board.
but this a dramatic drop in trip for that runner and the only thing to do as a saver is to combine the pair in a small reverse forecast

Un Bacio Ancora
win

Un Bacio Ancora
Reverse forecast
With
Jalo

Edited by Sporting Sam
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Sporting Sam

Sporting Sam

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Sporting Sam said:

Newcastle 2030
Nellie french
Each way
Turbo tiger
Each way
Phoenix star
Win

The draw is crucial as are the non runners.
Turbo tiger is the lowest weight highest draw while Phoenix star is top weight
Nellie french hasn’t won since February but beat kraken power then and has run some blinders this year.

Winners 

western star

15/2 into 9/2 

 

phoenix star 

the lucky last at Newcastle 

solray

bolted up by a wide margin following previous good second to laoisman  (seven lengths clear of field that night)

celtic revival

penultimate winner at Dundalk 

I did the summary for the opener at Haydock in the Hugh Taylor thread, do you may have missed this write up….

“haydock 

 

Western stars

win

gets the main vote here after plenty of consideration.

Bought out of Ed Dunlop’s after a good second in a class three seller. (Seller and class three seems a contradiction in terms.) That’s two classes higher than this race. 

second on debut to a subsequent listed class horse rated 93 who also was eighth recently to Absurde. Went clear over too far before being reeled in this ex Dunlop horse looks never more comfortable than over a straight mile beating Cosmo raj over that trip. Has raced at class three and won at four. So this represents a big drop in class with the only question being the stamina factor over 1:2. 
in  any case the draw data puts this highest drawn runner in the driving seat as the highest drawn horses have prevailed in recent years.

a combination trifecta involving the three top weights is the saver hopefully the two bottom weights will stand their ground although both have big question marks carrying a penalty and hating soft ground.

 

win “

 

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