Tennis Tips - July 31 - August 6

[CzechPunter]

😄

[MJT]

L Van Assche to beat A Molcan 1.80, William Hill (NAP)
Have been impressed with the improvements in Van Assche over the past 12 months and I think he will be too good for Molcan. These two players are in opposite trajectories of their careers. Molcan has lost his last 4 matches and will be up against a player who has been steadily rising over recent months and his game should match up well here. With Molcan being a lefty it will go up against the good backhand of Van Assche and Molcan also doesn’t have the power to outhit him. I think Van Assche should be a shorter price than he is based on form this season.

H Medjedovic to beat S Baez 2.0, William Hill (NB)
The conditions in Kitzbuhel should really suit the Medjedovic game as outlined by his dominating performances in qualifying. He also performed very well in similar high altitude conditions in Gastad where he reached the semi finals losing to eventual champion Cachin. His powerful game and big serve will win him a lot of free points in this one. He plays Baez who has been pretty poor recently losing 6 out of his last 7 matches, 4 of which were on his preferred clay surface. He did play better against Ruud last time out but you would have slight question marks over this due to the poor performance level of Ruud during Hamburg. This is likely to be close but given the faster clay conditions here and with Medjedovic having the bigger game and better serve I give him the nod in this match up.

F Misolic -2.5 Games v G Andreozzi 1.92, Unibet
I backed Andreozzi yesterday but I will go against him this time around. Misolic loves the conditions in his home tournament having made the finals here last year. Andreozzi is a declining player with his best years behind him and is now also ranked 240.

Double:
H Medjedovic & D Galan 5+ Aces each 2.42, Bet365
Both players have good serves and with the conditions in Kitzbuhel this should have a very good chance. I would be shocked if Medjedovic doesn’t get closer to 10 aces and Galan has been hitting decent numbers recently even on much slower clay courts. Last week in Hamburg for example he hit 7 aces in losing in straight sets.

Long shot:
H Medjedovic 10+ aces v S Baez 5.0, Bet365
In 2 qualifying matches H Medjedovic hit a massive 36 aces. These faster clay conditions clearly suit his game and with the way he serves this should have a good chance especially if the match is relatively close.

[Heisenberg68]

1 hour ago, MJT said:

L Van Assche to beat A Molcan 1.80, William Hill (NAP)
Have been impressed with the improvements in Van Assche over the past 12 months and I think he will be too good for Molcan. These two players are in opposite trajectories of their careers. Molcan has lost his last 4 matches and will be up against a player who has been steadily rising over recent months and his game should match up well here. With Molcan being a lefty it will go up against the good backhand of Van Assche and Molcan also doesn’t have the power to outhit him. I think Van Assche should be a shorter price than he is based on form this season.

 

It's very difficult for Van Assche today.

 

bad day for him !

It's complicated, but if he gets his serve back, he can win this match. He's in danger in most of his service games.

 

Edited July 31, 2023 by Heisenberg68

[MJT]

23 minutes ago, Heisenberg68 said:

 

It's very difficult for Van Assche today.

 

bad day for him !

It's complicated, but if he gets his serve back, he can win this match. He's in danger in most of his service games.

 

Yeah it's been an awful match so far from Van Assche at 6-4 3-1 down. Doesn't look that interested to me & is missing some very easy shots. This looks like it's going to be a loss unfortunately unless he can cut out the errors. Molcan has been pretty solid as well which also doesn't help.

[amity]

This is some dire effort from Medjeduvic. 🙈 

Not touching with him a barge pole again after this 'phoned it in' performance. 🤦‍♂️

[MJT]

Awful performance from Medjedovic. No idea why he didn't retire given he was clearly not fit and took the MTO in the 1st set. So frustrating when you see a player clearly injured but yet decides to continue to play putting in pretty much zero effort. Will be avoiding him now until next season at the earliest. 

[MJT]

Final tennis plays today just focusing on 3 matches.

Double
M Giron to beat R Albot / J Shang to beat E Gomez 1.80, Pinnacle
Shang has already beaten Gomez twice before in straight sets with the most recent just a few weeks ago. His consistent game should prove too much for Gomez. Giron would have to play quite poorly to lose against Albot as he’s simply the better player. Likely to be some long rallies but I would expect Giron to get the better of most.

J shang to beat E Gomez 2-0 1.73, Bet365
As stated above Shang should really be too good in this one. Gomez has also been losing heavily recently to fellow lefties.

M Giron -3.5 Games v R Albot 1.99 Pinnacle
Worth a small play as I do feel Giron should win in straight sets.

Y Watanuki v Y Wu Over 22.5 Games 1.93 Pinnacle
Expecting this to be close match. Wu tends to play well in America and if he is hitting his powerful forehand well then he will be hard to beat. However, he’s low on confidence at the moment having won only 2 games since May. Watanuki is the steadier player of the two and I do think this has a great chance of either having a tie break or going to 3 sets.

[CzechPunter]

Juncheng Shang to beat Ben Shelton at 2.20 with Bet365

Shang managed to beat Shelton 2-0 not that long ago in Atlanta, and I see no reason for him being the underdog here again. Moreover, he's kept some match practice in the meantime, while Shelton hasn't played a match since that meeting, and that can only help him.

Karolina Pliskova to beat Hailey Baptiste at 1.40 with Bet365

Pliskova hit a new low during Wimbledon, where she lost in R1 against Stevanovic. That was a tricky match-up, though, and Baptiste on a much more regular surface should be a good opportunity to bounce back. The American hard courts have always been good hunting grounds for the Czech, and I think she'll get the win here one way or another.

[MJT]

A brutal day yesterday after a good week last week.

I may have some plays later today if anything takes my fancy.

[MJT]

One play from Prague today and may have some further plays later in Washington.

T Martincova -3 Games v G Knutson 1.85, Pinnacle
Martincova beat Zhang last week before being beaten by Wickmayer who played some great tennis during the week. Knutson had a good win in qualifying against Minnen but has yet to really produce anything at the tour level to suggest she can win this one. Just last week she lost 6-1 6-2 to 258 ranked Garland and not long before that 6-2 7-6 to 469 ranked Dunne. This could well end up being a breakthrough week for her but I will side with the far more experienced Martincova.

[MJT]

Due to Popyrin pulling out of the tournament there is now a different match scheduled.

 

A Rinderknech -1.5 Games v J.M Cerundolo 1.84, Pinnacle

Cerundolo lost easily in qualifying to Andreozzi 6-2 6-4 winning just 53% of service points. Against a big server like Rinderknech a poor serving display like that again will more than likely result in another straight sets loss. Rinderknech is on a nice winning streak having won the Zug challenger last week and the fast conditions here should suit his game.

[MJT]

My plays for the matches later today:

S Korda 2-0 v A Shevchenko 1.83, Bet365 (NAP)
I was tempted by the under 21.5 games in this one at slightly bigger odds but will opt for the 2-0 in case there is a close set. Korda should be too consistent on an American hard court against Shevchenko.

Double:
E Ruusuvuori to beat Y Nishioka / A De Minaur 2-0 1.96, Bet365 (NB)
I backed Ruusuvuori to beat Nishioka at Wimbledon in 2022 and it was a very comfortable victory. He also looked good in his previous match and his aggressive game on these fast hard courts will be very hard to deal with. Nishioka doesn’t have the best of serves so Ruusuvuori will get plenty of looks. As long as he can keep the unforced errors down I would be surprised if he didn’t win. As stated above De Minaur should be winning very comfortably.

Double:
L Harris to beat S Shimabukuro / S Korda to beat Shevchenko 1.75, Pinnacle
Shimabukuro lost in qualifying to Klahn and was crushed in losing to Dimitrov at Wimbledon. He will struggle to get much luck on the big Harris serve so the best he is likely to manage is getting to a tie break. However, I suspect Harris will get opportunities and he should really be winning this comfortably. As per above Korda should be too strong for Shevchenko.

B Nakashima v A Vukic Over 22.5 Games 1.83, Pinnacle
Assuming the long week in Atlanta hasn’t taken it out of Vukic this should be another close match. I suspect there will be very few breaks in this one with both players having good serves. Great chance of at least one tie break in this match and if there is it should land.

A De Minaur v S Mansouri Under 18.5 Games 2.0, Pinnacle
This should be a routine win here for De Minaur and just a case of how easy it ends up being. Would be surprised if he dropped more than 6 games to a player ranked close to 300 who has very little experience at this level.

[CzechPunter]

Yue Yuan to beat Tereza Martincova at 2.45 with Unibet

Martincova feels overrated to me here. Yes, she'll be playing at home and she's good when she's on, but she's been struggling on and off for quite some time now, and Yuan has serious potential in my opinion. She even managed to run Azarenka close in Wimbledon, and I think everything above 2.10 is worth taking.

[MJT]

J Cristian -1.5 Games v E Arango 1.95, Pinnacle
Cristian looked good in her opening round win against former champion Bouzkova. Her backhand in particular was working very well. Cristian beat Arango 6-4 6-2 just a few months ago on clay and I would say on a hard court this would favour her even more. She has a decent serve and really pushed Haddad Maia at Wimbledon. Not been overly impressed with Arango's results on hard courts whereas Cristian has been picking up some good wins this year against the likes of Tauson & Wickmayer. Willing to side with her here if she can reproduce the form she did in her last match.

[MJT]

V Hruncakova to beat N Hibino 1.80, William Hill

Lucky loser Hibino who lost in qualifying to Arango beat Errani in the first round in what was a bit of a shambles with Errani losing a 5-0 1st set lead 7-5. She has a relatively weak serve which should get punished by Hruncakova, who has a big serve and aggressive game. As long as Hruncakova keeps the unforced errors low she should be too powerful for Hibino.

 

S Ofner to beat A Molcan 1.80 Pinnacle

Ofner has been playing very well over recent weeks and his serve and powerful game should really suit the courts in Kitzbuhel. With the home support I would expect him to beat Molcan who has only won 1 match since mid June and that was against a very poor performing van Assche last time out.

[MJT]

Quite possibly one of the biggest chokes I have come across in men's tennis in recent time. Ofner lead 6-4 5-0. He had 2 match points at 5-0. He just lost the 2nd set 7-5 having failed to serve out the match on 2 occasions. Absolute shambles. 

[amity]

48 minutes ago, MJT said:

Quite possibly one of the biggest chokes I have come across in men's tennis in recent time. Ofner lead 6-4 5-0. He had 2 match points at 5-0. He just lost the 2nd set 7-5 having failed to serve out the match on 2 occasions. Absolute shambles. 

That's extraordinary... Perhaps he was injured and didn't retire? 

[Torque]

1 hour ago, MJT said:

Quite possibly one of the biggest chokes I have come across in men's tennis in recent time. Ofner lead 6-4 5-0. He had 2 match points at 5-0. He just lost the 2nd set 7-5 having failed to serve out the match on 2 occasions. Absolute shambles. 

That kind of a result is a sickener there's no doubt. There'll come a time though when you're on the right end of a collapse like that - although that's not much consolation right now.

[MJT]

I know you sometimes see turnarounds like that in women's tennis, especially Errani matches, but for a men's match I just can't get my head around it. 

One of the most sickening results I have dealt with in tennis and sums up how this week has started. A lot of crazy results. 

Will certainly be avoiding Ofner going forward that's for sure! 

[MJT]

Treble:
Wolf to beat Albot x Eubanks to beat Shimabukuro x C Gauff to beat H Baptiste 1.97, Pinnacle
Not a massive fan of trebles in tennis but there have been odd performances so far this week to trust many players to win in straight sets. So instead opting for just wins here. I backed against Albot in the first round and I will do it again here. Giron should have won that match and I just don’t see Wolf making the same level of mistakes. Shimabukuro was a huge surprise winner yesterday but his luck will run out today. Against the huge serve of Eubanks he will be lucky to get many opportunities which will put pressure on his own average serve. A tie break may be needed here but I still see a comfortable enough Eubanks win. Baptiste had a good win yesterday against completely out of form Pliskova. Today’s opponent couldn't;t be any more different. Gauff will dictate play from the baseline and should be far too consistent.

Eubanks 2-0 v Shimabukuro 1.85, Pinnacle
As long as Eubanks serves well and doesn’t go crazy with unforced errors I really do struggle to see how he doesn’t win this one comfortably. The lucky loser Shimabukuro was beaten in qualifying to Klahn and will be lucky to get many break point chances if any at all. Shimabukuro doesn’t have the best of serves so even with the average Eubanks return game he should get some chances to break. They have played against each other once before with Eubanks winning 6-7 6-2 6-3 back in 2022. In that match Shimabukuro managed just the 1 break point opportunity and failed. Eubanks has also massively improved since that time. The only concern here is that he loses a tie break but I am willing to take that risk.

B Bencic -4.5 Games v L Davis 2.02, Unibet
Was tempted by the straight sets win in this one for Bencic but instead opted for the games handicap. Davis has a pretty average serve so will be tested a lot by Bencic, who herself has been holding serve very well on hard courts over the last 12 months. Simply put Bencic can do everything that Davis does but just an awful lot better.

[MJT]

Final plays for today.

Svitolina v Kasatkina Over 9.5 breaks of serve 1.90, Bet365
Not normally a market I delve into but given both of these players I think it is worth a shot. The last Svitolina match against Azarenka involved a massive 17 breaks with just 5 holds of serve. The 2nd set alone had 9/10 breaks. I am expecting something similar here again with Kasatkina with many changes in momentum. Both players have been playing well recently and had a good Wimbledon. The only concern is the 7-0 head to head for Svitolina but if this is either a close 2 sets or 3 sets this really should land again.

Watanuki v Auger-Aliassime Over 22.5 Games 1.91, Unibet
Auger-Aliassime has been in awful form for most of the season. However, he still does have a very good serve and Watanuki is likely to find it difficult to break. Watanuki himself also has a good serve and along with the poor return game of Auger-Aliassime, I would not be expecting an abundance of breaks in this match. With every chance of at least a tie break here I like the over games.

B Nakashima v A Murray Over 22.5 Games 1.78, Pinnacle
This should be a very close match. First game since Wimbledon for Murray and he may be a little sluggish. However, I do think he has a shot in this match as Nakashima has had a pretty poor season. Murray also won the only previous head to head on grass last season 6-4 7-6. There was only 1 break of serve in that match and on these fast hard courts I don’t imagine there will be many breaks again. I can see either a tie break or a 3 setter in this one.

[Torque]

Best of luck @MJT 

[MJT]

Cheers @Torque Hopefully due a bit of luck after that Ofner performance earlier! Started much better so far in Washington which is good.

[CzechPunter]

Well I'm still waiting on Yuan after yesterday's rain, and I'm not feeling it elsewhere. Will take a look again later on, maybe I'll post a bet or two. Good luck everyone!

[MJT]

Y Wickmayer -4 games v Korpatsch 1.97, Pinnacle

Not a huge fan of Korpatsch especially on hard courts. Wickmayer has been in great form recently and should dominate this match. Was going to play the -3.5 but will go for the slightly higher line.

[MJT]

With the Wickmayer match void due to retirement I just have 2 plays from the earlier matches today.

Noskova v Raina Under 18.5 Games 2.12, Unibet
Noskova looked good in her opening round & should be far too good for Raina. As long as there are no nerves in play this should be a routine straight sets win. Noskova won 6-4 6-0 in the only previous head to head in 2022, but could easily have been 6-2 6-0. Raina will battle hard but she always struggles against power hitters as seen in her crushing 6-0 6-0 loss in qualifying here to Yastremska. In that match she won just 21% of service points. Noskova has power but is more consistent than Yastremska. As I say my only concern in this one is her nerves with Noskova only being 18 and playing as big favourite in her home country. In terms of talent this one should be a one sided victory so willing to make a small play.

L Djere v P Cachin Over 22.5 Games 1.86, Pinnacle
This should be an extremely close match with both players playing well over the past few weeks. Cachin won Gastad which is a similar high altitude event so will enjoy the conditions here. I was slightly worried about the fatigue factor for Djere having lost in the final in Hamburg last week but he looked really good in his last match. They have played each other once before with Cachin winning 3-6 6-1 6-1 but that was almost 8 years ago so difficult to take much away from that. I struggle to see either player winning this one easily as it really is a coin flip on the day as to who wins this one. The over could land with a close set even if it was one in 2 but I think this has every chance of going to 3 sets.

Will post my plays for Washington/Mexico later today.

[MJT]

These start soon so wanted to get them up quickly.

Treble
Wolf x Tiafoe x Pegula 2.15 Pinnacle (NAP)
See reasoning below for Wolf. Tiafoe should have too much for Shang with his power. Pegula likewise should get the better of Stearns who lost in qualifying and only made it this far thanks to a lucky loser spot and being drawn against a poor player in the 1st round.

J Wolf -1.5 Sets v M Mmoh 1.98, Pinnacle (NB)
Think there has been a massive overreaction to the Mmoh win last time out. Yes he played well but it was against a player with a poor return game and very little rally tolerance. This match up couldn’t be any more different from that. Added to this the huge one sided head to head with Wolf winning 3-0 and in the 7 previous sets he has only managed on one occasion to achieve 4 games. Mmoh would have to serve incredibly well in this to have any chance. This matchup clearly suits Wolf and I struggle to see why the result would be any different this time around.

Will post some further plays I like shortly.

[Torque]

Agree with all of those @MJT 

So far in this tournament a lot of the big servers have been going out and it seems like that's due to the conditions, with Murray describing them as slow and saying that it's very difficult to hit through opponents. The consequence of that is obviously long rallies, and that's where you find out who can actually play tennis - and by that I mean the game that starts after the serve has been delivered. A number of big servers have absolutely no return game to speak of and so it's not that surprising they've been found wanting. In the case of Hurkacz and Auger-Aliassime, it'd be interesting to see where they'd be ranked if you took away their serve.

[MJT]

Final plays for today:

A Shevchenko to beat D Evans 2.52, Pinnacle
Think this is a great price on Shevchenko here. He battled brilliantly in his last match winning in 3 sets against Korda and has the perfect aggressive game for these courts. Evans has been in awful form for most of this season and managed to get just his second win since April. He also has very little pace on his groundstrokes which should sit up perfectly for the power of Shevchenko. The last win may regain some confidence for Evans but at these odds it is certainly worth a small play.

Double:
Eubanks v Thompson Over 21.5 Games x B Boric to beat I Ivashka 1.90, Unibet
I would be very surprised if the Eubanks v Thompson match doesn’t have at least 1 tie break, but either way it should be a close match. Coric won comfortably in his last match against the average Jung but he is also now playing against a player completely out of form and who’s serve has been pretty poor all week. So far Ivashka has served 19 doubles in just 2 matches. Would be very surprised if Coric doesn’t take it in straight sets.

C Garcia -1.5 Games v M Kostyuk 2.03, Pinnacle
I really like the chances of Garcia in this match up. Kostyuk played a gruelling almost 3 hour match last time out when saving match points in defeating Andreescu. Garica can be inconsistent at times but had a great North American run last summer winning Cincinnati and getting to the semi finals of the US Open. They have played twice before with Garica winning in 3 sets on both occasions. They were both on clay so this faster surface should favour Garica more given her serve and aggressive style and I just feel she will over power Kostyuk in this. She just needs to serve well and keep the error count relatively low and I think she should get this done in straight sets. However, with such a low line even if this did go to 3 sets it would have a chance as long as she doesn’t lose a set easily.

M Sakkari -2.5 Games v L Fernandez 2.01, Pinnacle
I think the odds on this one are a little generous and may be based on the recent wins for Fernandez. She doesn’t have the best backhand in the world and I would imagine Sakkari will likely outlast her in most of the longer rallies. Sakkari has a very good forehand and will need to target that weaker area of the Fernandez game. They have one previous match with Sakkari winning 6-2 6-2 back in 2021 on hard. Fernandez hasn’t beaten many top players of note in recent time and I think the consistency of Sakkari will be too much for her.

Best of luck all

[CzechPunter]

Alexander Shevchenko to beat Daniel Evans at 2.40 with Unibet

Fully agree with @MJT here after taking a second look at the card. Shevchenko is motivated, you just can't get rid of him, and he really took the fight to Korda in the previous round, even though he was a big underdog and even though Korda wasn't bad at all for the first two sets before falling apart with an injury. Evans can be a bit sluggish these days, and his overall game plan is starting to get hit by his age unfortunately.