Sunday 30th racing chat

[Sporting Sam]

Uttoxetter 1545

jet of magic 

win

good debut found plenty to win here then.

Clear the runway

each way

in better races than this of late and worth a speculative punt in anticipation of improvement here 

[calva decoy]

1 hour ago, Tedthewolf said:

I see Charlie Johnston has been saying he has been training his horses with this Goodwod meeting in mind   ill be keeping ans eye on his runners.

Trained his first Group winner yesterday & his ol' man always did well at Goodwood so cheers for the heads up .

[Villa Chris]

5 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

3.10 Uttoxeter Court Master 5/1 bog 2nd

3.45 Uttoxeter Polish 4/1 2nd 

5 points win each 

 

P/L jump season start date 8th October 2022 +100.19

Both finished second 

 

P/L jump season start date 8th October 2022 +90.19

[Sporting Sam]

Pontefract 

4pm

win

tribute

[Sporting Sam]

Uttoxetter 

4:20

joey steel

Win

was a borderline each way but the trainer sent this one to Worcester after a long lay off and he’s back on winning mark now. Has come a long way for this with the one horse. Back each way if you feel you need to. It’s a big price 

Edited July 30, 2023 by sporting sam

[richard-westwood]

1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:

I noticed that Silk Bird was in first time cheek pieces and didn't back it.  I noticed that Kevin Stott was on Princess Alex in the first and didn't back it 🤐 

For instance on the class rating ...this is the first race that has come off its the Lennox stakes Tuesday 

Al suhail    9.0  100 116 112 

Kinross   8.9 116 112 98 

Isaacs shelby    8.5   77 116 112 

Audience   8.2 28 54 74 

See on ratings alone it looks more open but audience is taking on much better opposition here so although he looks an improver I'd scrub him ........so I've narrowed it to top 3 so far ....it looks close between top 3 on class but Al suhail and Kinross look the strongest bets to me at the moment .....

A look at betting now shows all 3 are top 3 in betting ...with Kinross 13/8 fav ......I don't think he warrants that price given the ratings and class .....overall I think Al suhail 15/2  ew is the value bet 🤔 maybe ....but you can see any of the 3 is capable at this class 

Edited July 30, 2023 by richard-westwood

[azzybear]

prime time lady 4.55 ew 

[azzybear]

muatdal 5.10 ew 

[Sporting Sam]

Pontefract 

16:35

Fleurir

win

relatively straightforward task for this 77 rated horse.

sevind to coppice in cv

[Sporting Sam]

Uttoxetter 16:55

funny little selection this one

Vision of Hope to win by 5.0 lengths or more @ 7/1.

in  their recent encounter,

vision of hope was put into the race late and was flying late on after my poem seemed well clear. On these revised terms he may well win easily but at 15/8 let’s see.

My little Toni

each way

huge claimer on this runner and the ten pounds could get him in the frame.

 

Edited July 30, 2023 by sporting sam

[Sporting Sam]

Pontefract 1710

mutatadel

each way

gets all the physics advantages here and should at least be in the mix after soul seekers defection

[Villa Chris]

21 hours ago, black rabbit said:

Saddlers Quest                                                   4 55 Uttx/                     1/40th of a pt    ew        25/1 

Witch  Hunter                                                      2 50 Pon/                     1/40th of a pt win          11/1 

Haumea                                                                1 45 Pon/                     1/40th of a pt win         20/1              

Nice win 👋

[Sporting Sam]

That ends July.

vitani was a winner in the juvenile hurdle along with fleuirie  at Pontefract, who won easily but who was doing so at a very short price. The sort of runner I’d normally do in a winning distance bet. Was 6/4 to do it by two+ 

A nice runner up at deauville

life in motion

@ 33/1 ridden by mikael Barzelona

with some very short priced brits in behind including Remarque.

flight plan 6/1ran a blinder to keep second place behind poker face .

Edited July 30, 2023 by sporting sam

[The Equaliser]

2 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

They shoukd have run better than that ....races like that do my head in ......but it happens I think sometimes the racing gods have a laugh 😃. 

I'm just putting the finishing touches to class rating .....I want to narrow the bets to 1 or 2 from top 4 so I'm programming the computer to give me a class rating for each of  last 3 runs so it will hopefully come out like this 

Horse,a   9.0    41 39 38.5 

Horse b 8.8   36  34 34 

Horse c 8.7  31 27 30 

Horse d 8.5   33 32 34 

As you can see in this case Horse a woukd warrant a bigger bet with b and d as dangers . .  Its a work in progress but it shoukd help in long run hopefully 🙏 

Hi Richard, we have talked about "class" before.  I don't know if the following is of any use.  It was put forward by Michael Wilding at Race Advisor.   He prefers to look at prize money as opposed to the classifications.

"Class

Horses get put into a class based on their Official Rating (OR). The classes look like this:

Class 1 – Official Ratings 96+.Features Classics & subdivided into Groups 1, 2 and 3

Class 2 – Official Ratings range from 86-100, 91-105, 96-110

Class 3 – Official Ratings range from 76-90 and 81-95

Class 4 – Official Ratings range from 66-80 and 71-85

Class 5 – Official Ratings range from 56-70 and 61-75

Class 6 – Official Ratings range from 46-60 and 51-65

Class 7 – Official Ratings range from 0-45

If you look at the rating of horses who can be in different classes, you will see there is a huge overlap.

For example, a horse with a rating of 57 could race in a class 6 or class 5 race, competing against very

different levels of other horses.

So, instead of using class, I recommend you use prize money to determine the class of a horse.

As an example, take Thyme White. In this race he was favourite at odds of 2.03 in this race:

This race is worth £40,000, but if we look at the races where the horse has performed well, they’re only

worth around £6,000 to £10,000. He did win a £20,000 race, but it was nearly two years ago, and he hasn’t

performed as well since."

This was a race example but I think you will get the idea.

I think I have further analysis of breaking a race down into prize money for "class" purposes but if you are not interested I won't bother to look for it.

[black rabbit]

35 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

Nice win 👋

saddlers "delivers" 😀     thanks chris   + ted

Edited July 30, 2023 by black rabbit

[Sporting Sam]

Black rabbit well picked out. 
excellent.

[Villa Chris]

13 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Hi Richard, we have talked about "class" before.  I don't know if the following is of any use.  It was put forward by Michael Wilding at Race Advisor.   He prefers to look at prize money as opposed to the classifications.

"Class

 

Horses get put into a class based on their Official Rating (OR). The classes look like this:

 

Class 1 – Official Ratings 96+.Features Classics & subdivided into Groups 1, 2 and 3

 

Class 2 – Official Ratings range from 86-100, 91-105, 96-110

 

Class 3 – Official Ratings range from 76-90 and 81-95

 

Class 4 – Official Ratings range from 66-80 and 71-85

 

Class 5 – Official Ratings range from 56-70 and 61-75

 

Class 6 – Official Ratings range from 46-60 and 51-65

 

Class 7 – Official Ratings range from 0-45

 

If you look at the rating of horses who can be in different classes, you will see there is a huge overlap.

 

For example, a horse with a rating of 57 could race in a class 6 or class 5 race, competing against very

 

different levels of other horses.

 

So, instead of using class, I recommend you use prize money to determine the class of a horse.

 

As an example, take Thyme White. In this race he was favourite at odds of 2.03 in this race:

 

This race is worth £40,000, but if we look at the races where the horse has performed well, they’re only

 

worth around £6,000 to £10,000. He did win a £20,000 race, but it was nearly two years ago, and he hasn’t

 

performed as well since."

 

This was a race example but I think you will get the idea.

I think I have further analysis of breaking a race down into prize money for "class" purposes but if you are not interested I won't bother to look for it.

I once used a prize money won strategy to pick my selections . It was promising but never stuck with it which tells you it wasn’t all that in the end , but I’d definitely consider using it again to form some  part of a rating for a horse 

[Villa Chris]

2 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

They shoukd have run better than that ....races like that do my head in ......but it happens I think sometimes the racing gods have a laugh 😃. 

I'm just putting the finishing touches to class rating .....I want to narrow the bets to 1 or 2 from top 4 so I'm programming the computer to give me a class rating for each of  last 3 runs so it will hopefully come out like this 

Horse,a   9.0    41 39 38.5 

Horse b 8.8   36  34 34 

Horse c 8.7  31 27 30 

Horse d 8.5   33 32 34 

As you can see in this case Horse a woukd warrant a bigger bet with b and d as dangers . .  Its a work in progress but it shoukd help in long run hopefully 🙏 

I think no matter how good you get the ratings and yours are very good, you will always have races where they are just way off for that particular race on that day, especially handicaps . I’ve started using a -minus and a + plus in my ratings to separate horses that have say both won a class 2 for example. It’s not hard to notice that some class 2s are far weaker than others and a quick look at the prize money and the calibre of horses in the race shows you that. 

Edited July 30, 2023 by Villa Chris

[The Equaliser]

14 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

I once used a prize money won strategy to pick my selections . It was promising but never stuck with it which tells you it wasn’t all that in the end , but I’d definitely consider using it again to form some  part of a rating for a horse 

Yes, OK.  There does seem to be a big overlap in the classifications.  Hope all goes well with your new class measurements

[richard-westwood]

10 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Yes, OK.  There does seem to be a big overlap in the classifications.  Hope all goes well with your new class measurements

I'm using course adjustment so a race at ascot is rated higher than Leicester say and then it uses prizemoney based class .....then where the horse finished ....I don't know about weight as that complicates things so I've laid off that for now ......its just a general guide ....I rated a race last week and the top rated was a clear 15pts in front of others on average and it won very easily at 5/2 ....probably shoukd have been odds on but it should help highlite potential good bets combined with the normal ratings 

[The Equaliser]

2 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

For instance on the class rating ...this is the first race that has come off its the Lennox stakes Tuesday 

Al suhail    9.0  100 116 112 

Kinross   8.9 116 112 98 

Isaacs shelby    8.5   77 116 112 

Audience   8.2 28 54 74 

See on ratings alone it looks more open but audience is taking on much better opposition here so although he looks an improver I'd scrub him ........so I've narrowed it to top 3 so far ....it looks close between top 3 on class but Al suhail and Kinross look the strongest bets to me at the moment .....

A look at betting now shows all 3 are top 3 in betting ...with Kinross 13/8 fav ......I don't think he warrants that price given the ratings and class .....overall I think Al suhail 15/2  ew is the value bet 🤔 maybe ....but you can see any of the 3 is capable at this class 

Yes, I see.  Al Suhail has to be the best on ratings and at least equal in class. Plus, when all looks to be about even then it must be best to go for the highest-priced horse.  

[The Equaliser]

4 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Have placed 2 L15's and accas on the daily = 4.50 points

And have placed 11.20 points on Richard's selections = 15.70 staked today

RESULT UPDATE

Lost 11.20 points on one race but collected 10.30 on one of the L15's so a relatively small loss of 5.40.  My Mtd is now 0.82 & YTD +19.36

My L15 bal is -12.46 MTD and +95.04 YTD

My RW growth fund is down to 216.33 so could just about put 11 points on the next event(s)

[Zilzalian]

3 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

They shoukd have run better than that ....races like that do my head in ......but it happens I think sometimes the racing gods have a laugh 😃. 

I'm just putting the finishing touches to class rating .....I want to narrow the bets to 1 or 2 from top 4 so I'm programming the computer to give me a class rating for each of  last 3 runs so it will hopefully come out like this 

Horse,a   9.0    41 39 38.5 

Horse b 8.8   36  34 34 

Horse c 8.7  31 27 30 

Horse d 8.5   33 32 34 

As you can see in this case Horse a woukd warrant a bigger bet with b and d as dangers . .  Its a work in progress but it shoukd help in long run hopefully 🙏 

I have tried this angle a good few times over the years and always concluded it was detrimental to my existing system/s (it seemed to take out the possible "improvers") but i wish you well in this endeavour.

[The Equaliser]

23 hours ago, black rabbit said:

Saddlers Quest                                                   4 55 Uttx/                     1/40th of a pt    ew        25/1 

Witch  Hunter                                                      2 50 Pon/                     1/40th of a pt win          11/1 

Haumea                                                                1 45 Pon/                     1/40th of a pt win         20/1              

Well done with Saddlers Quest. It came to my attention via a couple of tipsters, supposedly using AI techniques.  It finished behind a couple of the runners in its previous race so I am wondering why you selected it.  Was it because you thought it would improve passed the previous two horses?  Fascinating

[black rabbit]

1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:

Well done with Saddlers Quest. It came to my attention via a couple of tipsters, supposedly using AI techniques.  It finished behind a couple of the runners in its previous race so I am wondering why you selected it.  Was it because you thought it would improve passed the previous two horses?  Fascinating

had it down on a list of horses i expected could improve and i knew it had started to work very well at home 

[The Equaliser]

2 minutes ago, black rabbit said:

had it down on a list of horses i expected could improve and i knew it had started to work very well at home 

Always amazing the progress a horse can make after a run.  Seems especially so with 2 y o on the flat.  Many thanks for your reply.  I hope you celebrate with a drink