harry_rag Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 Didn't attract much interest 2 years ago but I dare say I'll at least be having a few goalscorer bets on it. Might as well have a thread in case anyone spots a decent bet. I've seen outright tips for Germany, Netherlands and France. Decided to follow on the Dutch (got the advised best price with a boost on top) and have a small bet on Croatia as a lively outsider. 5 points e/w Netherlands at 13/1 Lads 2.5 points "e/w" Croatia at 40/1 to win and 16/1 for a top 2 finish with Uni (unless I'm missing something that beats straight e/w at 1/3 the odds). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 21, 2023 Author Share Posted June 21, 2023 1 hour ago, harry_rag said: I've seen outright tips for Germany, Netherlands and France. Just noticed that Germany were tipped at 11/2 but are a standout 8/1 with Uni and 3/1 for a top 2 spot. I don't want to extend my portfolio with a "proper" bet but I can't resist a 5 point saver on them making the final at the 3/1. Will end up only with mild regret if they prove to be the one that got away. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 21, 2023 Author Share Posted June 21, 2023 The opening round of games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 23, 2023 Author Share Posted June 23, 2023 Second set of group games. Not a great start for my outright bets with the Dutch and Germans held and Croatia beaten 2-0 so I'll be hoping for better fortune. Croatia will do well to get anything against Spain though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 24, 2023 Author Share Posted June 24, 2023 Always risky betting without confirmed line ups but I've had a trixie with Hills on 3 anytime goalscorers who have caught my eye. Zirkee (Netherlands) 3/1, Ruiz (Spain) 15/8 and Openda (Belgium) 6/5 Might be on some or all as singles subject to line ups and prices at the time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 24, 2023 Author Share Posted June 24, 2023 Zirkee not starting! Petrila 5/1 for Romania Ekkelenkamp 15/4 for the Netherlands (small bet on him for 1st goal at 12/1 e/w) BB in that game; btts = yes, both teams 20+ booking points, Brobbey to score at 7.05 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 25, 2023 Author Share Posted June 25, 2023 Nice win on the betbuilder yesterday and win later on with Ruiz scoring for Spain albeit at 6/4 rather than the 15/8 in the trixie. Shame Zirkee came on as would have got a winning single back from the trixie if he was a non-runner. Found one player who appeals in each game today, started well with the first 2 being with Uni (void if NR). Huseinbasic (Germany) at 27/5 and Gibbs-White (England) at 5/2. Done the singles and double. Also like Pellegri (Italy) at 23/10 with PP and Kalimuendo (France) at 2/1 with Hills but those come with the gamble on whether they start or not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 25, 2023 Author Share Posted June 25, 2023 1 hour ago, harry_rag said: Huseinbasic (Germany) at 27/5 and Gibbs-White (England) at 5/2. Done the singles and double. Also like Pellegri (Italy) at 23/10 with PP All 3 start, so on Pellegri as well as the other two. Also Ngankam at 13/5 PP for Germany. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 27, 2023 Author Share Posted June 27, 2023 Final round of group games, thoughts to follow on today's games in groups A and B. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 27, 2023 Author Share Posted June 27, 2023 Let's get group B out of the way first; Spain play Ukraine with both teams on the maximum 6 points after their opening games. Both teams are though and Spain will top the group if they avoid defeat. Spain fancied to win to nil at 15/8. Romania v Croatia is a dead rubber in terms of qualification with both terms playing only for pride and to avoid the ignominy of going home with no goals or points. In a game that makes little appeal as a betting contest I'd put up the draw at 11/4 or >3.5 goals at 43/20 if you twisted my arm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 27, 2023 Author Share Posted June 27, 2023 Group A is where the action is today. Co-hosts Georgia top the group with 4 points after beating Portugal 2-0 and drawing 2-2 with Belgium. They play the Netherlands who drew 0-0 with Belgium and 1-1 with Portugal. A win sees Georgia top the group and a draw would seem them through in 2nd place at worst. It's hard to fancy my antepost picks the Dutch at a short price tonight. I think Georgia score and get at least the draw they need to see them through to the knockout stage. Belgium should have what it takes to see off Portugal and go through with Georgia. 11/5 to win not the worst bet, maybe 6/5 DNB if you want a bit of a safety net. Both of these games not a bad shout for cards though I've not checked out the ref appointments yet. Will have a look while awaiting the confirmed line ups (these games are both at 5:00 with the Group B games being 7:45 kick offs). Heisenberg68 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 27, 2023 Author Share Posted June 27, 2023 A couple of BB's for interest in the early games. Belgium to win and each team 20+ booking points at 4.8 with 365 Georgia +1, btts = yes and each team 20+ booking points at 9/2 with Sky Bet De Cuyper to score for Belgium at 15/2 Sky Bet. Scored and assisted in the last game. it was his first goal at national level but he's not had too many starts; looks a decent start against 2 goal "involvements" last game and his domestic stats. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 27, 2023 Author Share Posted June 27, 2023 With due regard to how the earlier bets went, here's some selections you can ignore for the later games! Beljo (Croatia) at 11/5 with 365 Vidovic (croatia) at 10/3 with Sky Bet Riquelme (Spain) at 19/5 with Hills Camello (Spain) at 23/10 with Hills If you wanted me to nominate a nap and a "NB" it would be Riquelme and Vidovic given the prices. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 28, 2023 Author Share Posted June 28, 2023 This tournament has been brutal in a game betting and antepost sense! To be fair I've done ok on this and similar "off season" tournaments in the past but this year I'd have been better taking a break! My fixed odds profits reached a year to date high point exactly 3 weeks ago but are now down to just over 20% of that figure. Luckily the spread betting returns are 3 times the fixed odds high point. Less luckily, they're only 29% of what they would be but for stake limitations. You can't win (well, not as much as you'd like to anyway)! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 28, 2023 Author Share Posted June 28, 2023 Standings for today's games and my thoughts (without any bets at this stage). Group C, England v Germany with England already through after 2 wins and Germany needing a win to give themselves the best chance of going through (could still go out even then). England should be motivated to eliminate a potential semi final opponent while they've got the chance and good enough to do so. England to win. No real feel for the other game, both teams with a chance of qualifying so could be a cardfest, given the prices (Czech Rep favourites) I'd go Israel DNB. Group D, France on 6 points v the Swiss on 3, I'd favour France to win but not a fan of backing teams at odds on who can go through with a draw. Italy (3 points) to win and join them, leaving Norway on 0 points. May have a scorer bet or two and will do a BB for the England game as the 365 25% offer applies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 28, 2023 Author Share Posted June 28, 2023 Done England DC (win or draw), btts = yes and both teams shown a card as my bet builder attempt (17/10 with 365 if you get the bonus, I'm on at 15/8 elsewhere). Got 3 goalscorer requests up on BF, see if any get taken. Karabec at 17/4 with Lads my only bet in the other game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 29, 2023 Author Share Posted June 29, 2023 Quarter finals over the weekend. I did manage to call 3 of yesterday's games correctly in terms of the outcome without actually managing a winning bet! I'd fancy all 4 of the favourites to progress to the semis from first look at those games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted July 2, 2023 Author Share Posted July 2, 2023 Israel through on penalties and Spain in extra time. Guess who never even considered the usual "back all knockout ties to be draws" angle! At the risk of having missed the wedding I've done today's games at 3.65 and 4.00. Did manage a winner on Gomez to score for Spain last night, looked ok at 4.3 and had won on him in Spain's opening game. Backed a couple of other players but both bets were voided; Spain have a confusing array of players called Rodri or Rodrigo; 2 attempts to back one player and I still apparently didn't get the right one! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted July 2, 2023 Author Share Posted July 2, 2023 A couple of eye-catching BB prices here with 365, 9/2 in each game for the draw with Gordon (England) or Gouiri (France) to have a SoT. I was looking at this with <5 goals and found that, with 365, the price doesn't increase when you add that in but their price is still better than elsewhere even without adding that in. Given the knockout rounds/draws angle I think those are decent prices about the draw and the main man getting a SoT off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted July 2, 2023 Author Share Posted July 2, 2023 Gone for Gouiri to score at 17/10 with Hills. Just short of being a system pick but I like the stats enough for it to tempt me in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted July 3, 2023 Author Share Posted July 3, 2023 There's your semi finals, with England and Spain getting through as favourites and their opponents by upsetting the odds. No joy with the bets; the SoT angles obliged but neither game was a draw. Will stick with the draw angle for the semis I think. Should be an England v Spain final but the other teams have to be respected, especially Ukraine. England have won all their games to nil and already beaten Israel 2-0 but Ukraine led twice in their 2-2 draw with Spain and beat France 3-1 in their quarter final. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted July 5, 2023 Author Share Posted July 5, 2023 On the draw in both games, at 5.1 and 4.2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted July 6, 2023 Author Share Posted July 6, 2023 And so to the final, with the expected teams progressing; England maintaining their impressive run of wins to nil and Spain swatting Ukraine aside in a far more emphatic fashion than I expected. Betting wise it's frustrating that backing the draw in every knockout tie would have been profitable but I managed to miss the 2 that finished level and back the other 4. Ruiz obliged for Spain as an anytime system bet and I was part matched for a 3rd win on the impressive Gomez but overall the bookies have done better than me out of this tournament. For the final I'd have to side with England but it can obviously go either way (or any way, when you factor in the possibility of extra time and penalties). Whether or not to press one more time on the draw, that is the question! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted July 8, 2023 Author Share Posted July 8, 2023 On 7/6/2023 at 12:41 PM, harry_rag said: Ruiz obliged for Spain as an anytime system bet and I was part matched for a 3rd win on the impressive Gomez but overall the bookies have done better than me out of this tournament. For the final I'd have to side with England but it can obviously go either way (or any way, when you factor in the possibility of extra time and penalties). Whether or not to press one more time on the draw, that is the question! On Ruiz to score at 16/5 Hills or 4.2 BF (a "B" system bet for me). On Gomez one more time at a generous looking 6.8 on BF and also on him to get an assist at 9 (9.2 now and 15/2 with PP). A market I generally stay away from nowadays but he looks overpriced based on his stats for the finals and for qualifying. He's been profitable to back to score and he looks at least as likely to assist a goal as score one. On further consideration I fancy Spain at the prices, done a BB of Spain to lift the trophy, btts and both shown a card at 10/3. Currently swerving the draw as it's shortened since I first looked. (That's the best endorsement for a bet in this thread no doubt!) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted July 8, 2023 Author Share Posted July 8, 2023 Taken 3/1 a red card at half time. Easy to overreact to a flare up in a game but that’s not a bad price all things considered in this game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted July 9, 2023 Author Share Posted July 9, 2023 Fair play to England on a deserved win and the achievement of winning every game to nil. With my betting hat on I was willing that last gasp Spanish penalty into the net but it wasn’t to be. No shortage of red cards but, unfortunately, none shown to players who were still on the pitch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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