Racing Chat-Tuesday 28th March.

[kensland]

Double. 

3.00. Hunt. Artic Saint       9/2        2nd 

5.00. Wolv.  Aurophobia     9/2            3rd 

singles  & double 

stk. 6.00        rtn. 82.50.

Good luck all. 

Edited March 28, 2023 by kensland

[Sporting Sam]

Huntingdon 1.30

AIKENBREAKINHEART

Each way

Up just 2lbs for a decent win last time where he was 6.5 lengths clear of the second and a further 40+ clear of the other finisher.

Looks well treated compared to the other winners higher up the weights.

Huntingdon 2 pm

Juvenile hurdle

Greyval

Win

Even with a penalty hard to oppose after ready win latest, third in that race won a decent valuable race up north on Friday.

Long odds on, but take the hit or put in a double with the match bet.

 

Hexham 2.15

Grove Road

To win by 10+ lengths @ evens.

Most recent form of rival well dick,

Well Dick was beaten 66 lengths in last place, but tellingly 58 lengths behind the  (fourth) horse in front. The three horses behind were all pulled up. 

Grove Road beat Mr Vango narrowly but was clear of the rest and even giving weight away looks hard to beat. Mr Vango ran unplaced in listed class next time. Well Dick is 1/1 for Brian Hughes but does not look good enough here, given that the form of his narrow maiden hurdle win over bold soldier was not franked when bold soldier was beaten a distance in a handicap next time out. Unless Brian Hughes can conjure up some magic today then Well Dick is aptly named.

The Danger with these distance bets is you are trying to improve the skinny odds on a likely winner, while the jockeys only objective is win doing enough. I found that to my cost at Cheltenham when Nico De Boinville was too busy milking applause to push constitution Hill out to win by ten lengths at Cheltenham. I was one of many thousands who missed out there by one length and Nico duly apologised live on air after the race. So while I like the challenge of these races, keep stakes small. If you go to a racecourse there is no harm in asking the jockey about the winning distance!

 

Today's Change In Trainer List

 

5:00W Wolf Of Kingstreet

5:30W Tanseeq

5:30W Wooders Dream

8:00W Beleaguerment

Not a comprehensive list and flat only.

But it yielded two winners and two placed horses yesterday.

There are lots of second and third time runners.

An interesting race at 8pm with a lot of contenders. Hugh has gone for too funky which will take a huge chunk out of the market. I don't normally play until just before the race but there is a massively strong alternative in BILLIAN in my opinion. Original rating 80. Hasn't won since a maiden but placed and gone desperately close last four runs in handicaps. Drops in class and rated just 50 now and Kevin Stott rides.

Stott is the form jockey here with a big win in Ireland at the weekend and another for George Boughey last night, and he'll like nothing better than serving it up to Oisin Murphy if he can.Only ride of the day.

With too funky going to be widely over bet now and bookies pocketing a massive dividend on a horse thanks to a tipsters influence, I still think it is worth waiting to see how the market develops, especially to see which horses drop out if any. Because physics can also play a large part in the outcome of the race due to the draw and weights (if anyone is carrying a penalty.)

The other runner of interest is off the newcomer's list. BELEAUGERMENT with Oisin Orr on board won around this time last year at dundalk and again in October. Obviously with limited all weather opportunities in Ireland, drops from handicaps into this grade on debut for new yard. That is another reason why it'll pay to watch how the make up and fabric of the race and market unfolds.

Edited March 28, 2023 by sporting sam