Racing Chat - Friday 27th January

[Darran]

Both the horses I have shares in Down Under are running on Friday morning. I have written plenty about Beneficio on here in the past, but I haven't mentioned Cable Dancer before. If you follow me on Twitter then you will have seen me talk about him, but I wasn't sure how good he was going to be so haven't written a preview on here before now. He did actually take us all by surprise when winning on debut although I only had a very small bet on him as I didn't think he would win. Anyway I will look at both horses races tomorrow starting with Cable Dancer who goes in Race 6 at Kilmore which is off at 5am UK time.

Irving Again - Finally broke the maiden tag last time over course and distance in very easy fashion. Interesting to see how he gets on first time in a handicap.

 

Mocca Diamond - Both wins have come over 1400m, but he looks like this trip is what he needs and was 2^nd at BM64 level over 2100 at Ballarat in July. This prep hasn't on paper looked overly promising, but 1^st up was a good effort as he was too far back over 1400m and stayed on really well to get 4th. Next up he finished last and was then 7^th last time, but he was racing on the worst part of the track and against the patterns as both days you needed to be on speed. If there is no bias here then it would be no surprise if he was able to fly home late as he has shown he has the ability to do so in the past.

 

Aragon - Well beaten 1^st up and needs to find plenty on that to win this.

 

Romania - Won in this grade (BM58) at Moe over 2088m in September when making all and will no doubt be looking to do the same here. Wasn't so good on his next 3 starts although was either outclassed or over the wrong trip. If fit 1^st up then this is his grade and trip so a bold showing wouldn't surprise.

 

Abrupt - Another last time out maiden winner when winning over 1700m at Stoney Creek. Enjoyed the step-up in trip that day so going up to 2000m is likely to suit as well.

 

Cable Dancer - Surprised us all when winning on debut at huge odds. Think it has just taken a while for him to come to hand as it too until his last trial going into that race to actually show he had some ability. That wasn't a strong race, but he won well. Next up he was a bit disappointing, but as soon as others came past him he looked a bit clueless and didn't really know what to do which when you are forced into a handicap on your 2^nd start against more experienced horses is always likely to happen. Was much better last time over 1500m at Mornington when finishing 3rd. He came off the bridle early enough, but unlike on his previous start he carried on finding to not be beaten far. Was only beaten a length and the winner ran 2^nd in the Hanging Rock Cup on Thursday to help frank the form. That was a 0-64 so drops back to BM58 grade here and the trainer thinks he will be better the further he goes so stepping up to 2000m ought to suit. He has gone forward so far, but with a better draw today the plan might be to get him a bit of cover. I think he will continue to improve with racing and if he runs as well as last time should be involved in the finish.

 

State Squad - Hasn't run in this grade before and has run well at BM64 so has to have a chance here. The concern is over this trip at Mornington he looked in need of further as he got himself outpaced. He might get away with it though down in grade and he does look a possible winner of this.

 

Turfie - Maiden win came over this trip although not shown too much since then although his next start did come at Flemington. Ran below par last time and has been given a month off since. Suspect he's capable of better, but hard to back on the back of what he has done so far.

 

Prefer Us - Her two wins so far have come over 1900m and 2100m so both starts so far this prep have come over too short. Was last at Warrnambool and only had 2 behind passing the 400m marker. Stayed on well enough to get into 8th. Will improve for the step up in trip and the extra fitness.

 

Indian Doll - Shown little in 2 starts this prep.

 

Johnny Buccaneer - Ran OK at Moe last time and will do better over this further trip, but this isn't a bad race for the grade and his more exposed than his rivals.

 

Fields Of Grace - Maiden win was over this trip and 3 handicap starts have all come in BM64 grade. Was 2^nd over 1500m at Mornington 1^st up although only 5 runners and was then a bit disappointing at Cranbourne last time even though she was tightened up for room about 300m out. Rider suggested she needed more give and that was a Good 3 track plus the maiden win was on a Soft 7.

 

Verdict - Must admit I am a little surprised to see Fields Of Grace as favourite although clearly people thought she was unlucky last time. She has a chance for sure, but is unders for me. The 2 last time out maiden winners both could be up to this sort of level on their 1^st handicap starts so are possible winners. State Squad down at this grade for the first time has solid claims as well. I am however going to back 3 at the prices. I will have a bit on Cable Dancer as I'm excited to see what he can do over this sort of trip and his last run was good. I also like Romania who might well need it 1^st up, but for me that is factored into the big price. He might well get an easy lead here and he is over the right trip and in the right grade which he hasn't had of late. The main one I like is Mocca Diamond who has had little go his way in recent starts and I think that has masked the ability he has. Granted there could be excuses again for him giving his running style, but he has shown he has the ability to win a race like this and he is a big price here.

 

Mocca Diamond e/w @ 16/1 with Bet365

Cable Dancer e/w @ 17/2 with Betfred

 

Edit

Romania and Irving Again have been scratched.

[Darran]

Here is the preview for Beneficio's race which is due off at 10.45am and is a 0-64. The difference between that and a BM64 is that no horse above 64 can run in it whereas in a BM64 they could.

 

Avid General - An in form 7yo who has won both starts this year which continued the good form he was in during December. The wins came at Hanging Rock and Moe and this would be a stronger race than those, but the fact he's running well could see him hit the frame.

 

Prince Of Mercia - Has been off for 20 weeks and hasn't had a trial or a jumpout which is unusual in Australia. He has won twice 1^st up, but both came on the back of a trial or a jumpout so my suspicion is he will strip fitter for the run.

 

Reward With Return - Won a BM58 at Benalla last month, but struggled at this level last time and would be a surprise winner.

 

Beneficio - I was a little disappointed with her run at Benalla last time, but looking back she had to work hard to get across from her outside draw and she wasn't able to burn the candle at both ends as the jockey said afterwards. Also for some reason the jockey decided to race wide rather than on the rail which didn't help. She was blowing hard after the race as well so although she has a good 1^st up record, I actually think she will come on for the run. She has got a cracking draw in 4 although Prince Of Mercia can also go forward and that one is drawn in 3. Hopefully she can get in front of her and get the lead and if she does she should go close.

 

Invincibilus - Is usually slow away which doesn't help her although is a dual course and distance winner. Chances are there is going to be a lot of pace on and you just have to wonder if that will mean she gets too far back if she misses the kick.

 

The Swooper - Has only had one start and that was Boxing Day 2021 when 4^th at Caulfield. He is favourite for this on the back of that, but for me that is because the winner is a horse called Jacquinot who has gone on to win at Group 1 level and ran in The Everest last year. The 2^nd and especially the 3^rd haven't done too much for the form though and the 3^rd is still a maiden. He's been gelded and has had 2 jumpouts this month and he might be good enough, but there is no way I can back him at the current odds as I think he's only that price because of what the winner has done since.

 

Over Boost - Not been racing all that well and barrier 12 is going to be of no help at all.

 

Wango Award - Wasn't a strong race that she won at Yarra Valley although the 2^nd has won since. I'd be a little surprised if she was good enough to win at this level on her first start in a handicap.

 

Ling Ling - Has struggled on the whole outside of BM58 company and is going to find it tricky to get near the pace from the outside draw.

 

Verdict - Happy to oppose the favourite and I will be disappointed if Beneficio doesn't finish in the 1^st 3 here. Everything looks set fair for her to run a big race and at 9/2 I am happy to have a decent bet on here e/w. I think the main danger will be Avid General who comes into this in good form and is very consistent. 

 

Beneficio e/w @ 9/2 with everyone