harry_rag Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Might as well have a new thread for a new calendar year although there wasn't much action in last year's short but almost perfectly formed thread (only one post with any losing bets in it). Malins (Saracens) try looks a bit big to me at 6/4 with 365. I'd say "fill you boots" but, based on what I was allowed on, "fill half a child's ballet shoe" might be more appropriate. I've also sold Saracens hotshots at 37 along with Bulls hotshots at 45 and Munster sub try minutes at 46. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 7, 2023 Author Share Posted January 7, 2023 Malins opened the scoring; small net loss on the sells. On Penny for Leinster at 3/1 Sky Bet. He's 8 to buy with one spread firm but 18 with the other. That suggests he's somewhere between a 2/1 shot and a 9/2 shot which isn't all that helpful. Looking at his stats I'd say he's a reasonable bet at 3/1 or more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 25, 2023 Author Share Posted March 25, 2023 A couple of noteworthy sells today, England Women hotshots at 99 with SX (Cokayne, MacDonald, Breach & Dow) and Sharks hotshots at 47 with SPIN (Kok, Am, Mapimpi & Chamberlain). In a market where it’s generally a case of selling unless you can find a good reason not too (prices being pitched high due to there being far more buyers than sellers) it’s not often you get the chance to sell at anywhere near the 100 mark. England could run riot but even if they do it’s not necessarily the case that the hotshots will do all the scoring. From experience, I’m pretty much happy to sell any team at such a price. Sharks hotshots a more everyday price but on a day where there’s quite a few “no bets” with SPIN opting to include hookers in their quartet of players (makes the maths trickier) it’s nice to find a price that I can make a case for being around 7 points higher than it should be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 25, 2023 Author Share Posted March 25, 2023 4 hours ago, harry_rag said: In a market where it’s generally a case of selling unless you can find a good reason not too (prices being pitched high due to there being far more buyers than sellers) it’s not often you get the chance to sell at anywhere near the 100 mark. England could run riot but even if they do it’s not necessarily the case that the hotshots will do all the scoring. From experience, I’m pretty much happy to sell any team at such a price. England's 5th try arrives after 31 minutes and is the 4th scored by one of the hotshots so already looking at a loss with plenty of time for it to get bigger. Got the game on and am reminded why it's generally best not to watch anything that you've had a bet on! It's also a great illustration of why this is such a profitable way to bet in the first place. A lot of people will be deterred by the occasional potential big loss but if you're someone who watches all the things you bet on then you might not enjoy watching your losses getting bigger and bigger as the game goes on. Current total is 100 and the spread at the break is 154-157. The only question is whether to watch the second half or not! (Or I could go in and sell again!) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 25, 2023 Author Share Posted March 25, 2023 Should've gone in again at the break for a 54 point profit as they didn't add any more in the second half. Just a 1 point loss in the end. Pity I didn't bet later as the price reached 101 before the game started. I guess that's what all these young hipster punters these days refer to as not getting the "CLV"! Sharks hotshots made up at 0 for a 47 point profit. Ironically the SX hotshots (2 players different) made up at 25 courtesy of a try scored by the hooker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 25, 2023 Author Share Posted March 25, 2023 One more, not that anyone's watching! Blues v Force: Sell Blues hotshots at 65 with SPIN (Zarn Sullivan, Jacob Ratumaitavuki-Kneepkens, Bryce Heem, Mark Telea) This is the best value bet I've seen in a long time (barring some of Hills "Epic Odds" offers). For comparison, SX quote 55-59 but have Sotutu instead of Sullivan. My indicative price for those hotshots would be 56.7 which is bang inside the spread. My idea of a price for the SPIN quartet is more like 51.5, if I tried to put the most positive spin possible on it I could get it up to 55.8. I can't understand why anyone would pitch the price as high as 65. In a market where prices tend to be too high as a matter of course this is about as good looking a bet as you're likely to see. I'd have still sold it even if my idea of the true price was as high as 64.9 I'm not saying the bet will win, just that it's very good value (think getting closer to 2/1 about a genuine coin toss). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 26, 2023 Author Share Posted March 26, 2023 Made up at 50 for a 15 point profit. 61 points overall from the 3 bets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 27, 2023 Author Share Posted May 27, 2023 Sell Stormers hotshots at 39 with SPIN (25 points per Damian Willemse, Angelo Davids, Leolin Zas or Joseph Dweba try) SX have Nel rather than Dweba and go just 25-28. Nel's try minutes are 9-12 with them or 7=10 with SX. Dweba is one of the front 5 whose collective try minutes are priced no higher than 14-17. If you use the try minute prices as a guide the SX quartet are worth about 27.3 and the SPIN quartet about 30.5 (if you attribute the whole of the front 5 value to Dweba). Win or lose on this bet, in the long run there can only be one outcome if you sell at prices that are demonstrably around 20% higher than they logically ought to be. (Something like 8.5k points profit from just over 1300 bets.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 28, 2023 Author Share Posted May 28, 2023 Made up at 0 for a profit of 39 x stake. Let's go again with sells of both team's hotshots in the Barbarians v World XV game. I sold at 65 and 77 with SPIN who promptly showed their disdain for my bets by raising both prices a further point. Always nice to have the power to move markets in an instant! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Labrador Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 World Cup for the U 20's starts in South Africa on 24th June: https://www.world.rugby/tournaments/u20/championship Hoping for some interesting spread markets. harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.