Hugh cannot be serious!! Can He?

[Sporting Sam]

Hughs selections are below.

My reason for posting them are manyfold, firstly I'd like to know if you follow them,

Did you get the listed price?

Secondly I will do my own detailed analysis of one or both of the races closer to the off time. I will try and evaluate the whole of the race(s) and see if value remains with the selection(s) or indeed elsewhere...

Published 9.04 & 9.23 - all selections online

 

SPIRIT OF BREEZE hasn’t been seen to best effect on his two starts so far this season, but he might be worth chancing on the quickest ground he will have encountered to date in the 6f handicap at Lingfield today (8.10).

 

A six-figure purchase on all three occasions that he went through the ring, he showed a fair amount of ability when 6th on his debut at Newbury last June.

 

He hasn’t built on that effort in two subsequent turf runs on slightly easier ground plus an all-weather outing, though after pulling much too hard on his seasonal debut at Kempton, he wasn’t best positioned at Salisbury last time, challenging furthest away from the favoured far rail.

 

He’s been dropped 3lb for that run and, on pedigree, he might be suited by what is likely to be the fastest ground he has encountered to date - he’s by Invincible Spirit and is a half-brother to a number of smart performers, all of whom produced their best efforts on fast ground.

 

He needs to improve here but has only had four runs and might take a step forward with the ground drying out.

 

TACITUS is still a maiden but showed his best form last season on fast ground at Redcar, so he might be worth chancing each-way at decent odds in the 1m handicap there (Redcar 4.55).

 

He hadn’t seemed in much form last year prior to contesting a 7f handicap here in September, but he stormed home into third behind two horses that were chasing hat-tricks, closing them down at the line and shaping as if 1m here would suit him well.

 

He probably needed the run on his reappearance at Wolverhampton and might outrun his odds from a potentially handy draw here, and off a career-low mark, for a small stable that has had winners under both codes recently.

HUGH'S BEST BETS (1-5 POINTS):

4.55 REDCAR

1pt each-way TACITUS (25-1 Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power, 20-1 bet365, Sky Bet, Unibet - all paying 4 places)

 

8.10 LINGFIELD

1pt win SPIRIT OF BREEZE (16-1 general)

Edited May 30, 2023 by sporting sam

[MCLARKE]

I stopped following tipsters a long time ago, I thought it was a short cut to profits but it wasn't.

For the decent tipsters it was almost impossible to get on at the advised prices.

[Bang on]

2 hours ago, sporting sam said:

Hughs selections are below.

My reason for posting them are manyfold, firstly I'd like to know if you follow them,

HUGH'S BEST BETS (1-5 POINTS):

4.55 REDCAR

1pt each-way TACITUS (25-1 Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power, 20-1 bet365, Sky Bet, Unibet - all paying 4 places)

 

8.10 LINGFIELD

1pt win SPIRIT OF BREEZE (16-1 general)

I check his bets every day ... just to oppose him if possible. His followers make the market for others IMO. Yes, occasionally he has a winner ( I would say virtually impossible to get the price), but in general I find that his strike rate is poor.

TODAYS selections

TACITUS - is 0/16 , has a 5lb claiming jockey on, last ran on the AW in April finishing 7th..... needs a massive turn around and a huge dollop of faith and crossed fingers. No bet in race for me.

SPIRIT OF BREEZE - at least trainer Gary Moore is in some form, but my preference is for the Hughie Morrison runner ASCARI, drops back in trip (sprinters in pedigree), is in a handicap for the 1st time, decent jockey, and trainer is 5 wins from 16 in last 5 years (31%).

[Sporting Sam]

"check his bets every day ... just to oppose him if possible. His followers make the market for others IMO. Yes, occasionally he has a winner ( I would say virtually impossible to get the price), but in general I find that his strike rate is poor."

This.

But I find he helps to open up a market for others. The eventual winner, if it is not his selection will go off at a good price.

[Villa Chris]

Never thought about going against him for value purposes. Pretty obvious really whatever races he tips in, do your own calculations and with a bit of luck you end up with a different selection and you get value because his tips have moved the market in your favour. Only problem is I’m at work when he puts them up. 

[Sporting Sam]

Redcar 4.55

Royal prospect goes well fresh has been off for over 200 days. Won here off a mark of 85 as a four year old. 

Royal prospect

Each way 

Galton

Each way

The bottom weight can get in here on traverse law ( of draw or weights) if either the top weight or one of the more fancied winners fails to run their race. Not particularly highly rated but on the early road of handicapping and ran well latest.

[Sporting Sam]

Lingfield 8.10

Nogo's Dream

Win.

Form of second to prospering at ascot has been franked at a higher level.

 

[Villa Chris]

He’s put his selections up for tomorrow at ascot 

2.30 Gushing Gold 50/1 but now hammered into 16s 

3.40 Maksud 12/1 now into 5s 

6.10 Clearpoint 20/1 now into 12s 

[Sporting Sam]

Hopefully some value to be found from Hugh's two races. Perhaps he is right perhaps he is wrong, but I'm going to deconstruct the "entire" handicap of one or both races. I know for some it is important to get an early price, for me it far more important to wait. 

A race be it a maiden or a handicap is a physical entity. Each runner can have a huge impact on other runners, due to the horse's weight, ability and draw and until all the cast of the act is known, you have no play.

The horses are placed into stalls and compelled to leave them like projectiles fired from a cannon or catapult. They therefore have a trajectory. Ask anyone trained in ballistics or with a degree in physics.

For now, here is Hugh's write up.  I haven't read it yet.  The price is quite irrelevant, only the impact this horse and other horses will have on each other  is important and much of that information is only available or indeed apparent in the hour or so before the race.

Published 9.08, 9.26 - all selections online

VACCINE has realistic chances of reversing the form with the horses that beat him at Pontefract earlier this season in the Carlisle Bell today (3.50).

He finished second behind On The River and third behind The Cookstown Cafu at Pontefract, but didn’t manage to get across to the favoured inside rail on either occasion.

He’s 13lb better off with On The River here, and 4lb better off with the Cookstown Cafu, who had the advantage of racing on the inside rail.

Vaccine hasn’t been seen since that run in early May, but he has been kept away from ground with “firm” in the description for some time now. He left the impression he had improved in this first two runs, and if he returns in the same form here, he should go well.

DEVIZES shaped best in my opinion at Kempton last time despite finishing only third, and he can reverse the form with runner-up La Belle Vie over the same course and distance this evening (8.50).

Devizes was a bit unfortunate on that latest start, as having taken up a good position despite a wide draw, his rider found himself behind one that was being driven and patently struggling 5f out, forcing him to pull out wide to pass him.

He was consequently forced to race three-wide all the way round the bend, and after moving through to lead 2f out, he was closed down in the final 150 yards by two horses that had enjoyed much better trips.

Devizes represents a small stable that has been going well lately, the yard’s five runners in the last fortnight providing two winners and three narrowly-beaten placed horses.

His six career wins have all come over 1m4f, but I think it was that wide move that beat him last time rather than lack of stamina, and if he enjoys a better passage this evening, he might be able to confirm that suspicion.

Hugh's advice 

Vaccine

Devizes

both win

Sam's assessment on both races to follow.

[MCLARKE]

54 minutes ago, sporting sam said:

Hopefully some value to be found from Hugh's two races. Perhaps he is right perhaps he is wrong, but I'm going to deconstruct the "entire" handicap of one or both races. I know for some it is important to get an early price, for me it far more important to wait. 

Do you bet on the exchanges or with the traditional bookies ?

[Sporting Sam]

Total trad, Mclark.

I know it is wrong!

We all have different needs, and yes I understand, exchanges offer better prices.

When I get where I want to be, I will be doing tricasts and forecasts.

[Sporting Sam]

3.50 Carlisle 

Golden sands 

Each way

Is on a good mark and in rude form has won in February and may ( only runs in those months) in two consecutive seasons. A unique record. Now attempts to defy a rise of six pounds for latest win. 

Mostawa

Win

Hollie Doyle has this runner on a hat-trick and capable of winning if getting all the breaks in a race which looks wide open. The draw over two years averages out at 11.5 and her horse is well placed in stall 11.

[Sporting Sam]

The rains have come

Add

Tillset

Win.

[yossa6133]

28 minutes ago, sporting sam said:

3.50 Carlisle 

Golden sands 

Each way

Is on a good mark and in rude form has won in February and may ( only runs in those months) in two consecutive seasons. A unique record. Now attempts to defy a rise of six pounds for latest win. 

Mostawa

Win

Hollie Doyle has this runner on a hat-trick and capable of winning if getting all the breaks in a race which looks wide open. The draw over two years averages out at 11.5 and her horse is well placed in stall 11.

Who needs Hugh? Followed you in there, many thanks 

[Sporting Sam]

Nice one yossa, I think if you read Hugh's write up it talks about the firm ground.

Weather therefore is another factor, so why put something up at 9 am without checking the forecast?

Nice winner.  Another selection has just got across the line in fourth in a later race.

 

[Sporting Sam]

8.50 pm

Kempton

Dirham Emirati

Win

This Gary Moore hurdler raced in the Queen's vase two seasons ago at Royal Ascot.  He has come down from an opening mark of 80 for this first drop into class six.

Group winning jockey of Frankel Tom Quealy rides and the yard constantly try to nick last races on the all weather. Devizes really ought to win this as Hugh Taylor rightly says, but he finds ways to lose and first time cheekpieces could work the oracle for Dirham Emirati.....

*********************************

Dirham EMIRATI was fourth.

An excellent performance from Devizes and a very good pick from Hugh Taylor.

The rationale was spot on. 

Edited June 29, 2023 by sporting sam

[Sporting Sam]

Published 9.06, 9.16 - all selections online

Blazer Two is starting to look like a Leicester specialist and he might be able to record a third course-and-distance victory this evening (5.45).

He pulled clear with the runner-up here last July, and won again on his seasonal debut here last month, making all and never really looking like being caught over the final 2f.

He’s only 2lb higher here, and although he finished behind market rival Gearing’s Point last time at Windsor and meets him on the same terms, the return to this track might help him reverse the form.

There’s a really hot class 2 1m handicap at Newcastle today (3.20), with cases to be made for plenty of the runners, but at the prices this morning I think  the turpinator

 is worth an each-way bet.

He was a cheap buy given his rating at 12,000 guineas for his current connections, having gone off the boil in 2022 following a win at Goodwood. However, he bounced back to form on his first start for Grant Tuer over 7f here in December when third in a class 2 handicap over 7f, and the six that pulled clear that day all had very solid profiles on the all-weather.

He has three or four efforts on the all-weather that, if repeated here, would entitle him to be thereabouts off a fair mark. He probably wasn’t suited by the very testing ground when mid-division in the Thirsk Hunt Cup, and back on the all-weather, he might go well at big odds.

HUGH'S BEST BETS (1-5 POINTS):

3.20 NEWCASTLE

1pt each-way THE TURPINATOR (28-1 & 25-1 general)

 

5.45 LEICESTER

1pt win BLAZER TWO (3-1 bet365, 11-4 general)

*********************************

Posted earlier on the racing chat thread...

 

Newcastle 3.20

Lattam

Win

 

Class but has to prove he'll act on the surface. Won heavy ground at the Curragh.

Symbol Of Light

Each way

off a long time but good record on all weather. First start for Julie Camacho ..

I've got no take on his other selected race and will leave that one alone.

I've covered  three of Hugh's tipped up races in the last 24 hours and have beaten his each way selection today and put up the winner in the same race. Hollie Doyle rode my 15/2 winner Mostawaa yesterday as well.

My assertion is you'll know much more about the shape of a race and the true value if you wait until it has had a chance to form. The conditions change and lots of other factors emerge closer to the off. The danger is to feel you have to go against a selection because he's chosen it and that happened last night with devizes. Probably the reason I'll not look at his second race!

Edited June 29, 2023 by sporting sam

[Sporting Sam]

All the major bookmakers are desperate for you to back these two horses....

 

My advice wait until ten minutes before the off and I'll have read up both of these races hopefully .

 

 

 

Published 9.08 & 9.13 - all selections online

 Wades magic has either run well, or had an excuse, on almost every occasion that he’s raced on the all-weather, and he looks to have a good chance on his return to an artificial surface in the 6f handicap at Newcastle this evening (8.52).

 

He has two wins and three places from nine starts on the all-weather, but he has been unlucky with the draw or track position on a few occasions too.

 

That was certainly the case at Wolverhampton in November when last seen on the all-weather, racing four wide but still making up ground from the rear when running into trouble in the closing stages.

 

This is the lowest grade he’s encountered on the all-weather, this looks his trip (all three previous runs here have come over 5f), and he looks an interesting runner back on an artificial surface.

 

Regular readers of this column will know that I have frequently written about 

Bedford flyer's prowess on an artificial surface, and with the switch to Mick Appleby showing positive signs so far, he might be the one to be on in the Gosforth Park Cup (Newcastle 6.00).

 

He produced some remarkable efforts on the clock in his early days on the all-weather. Although he won at Southwell last November off a mark of 94, he hasn’t reached the heights I thought he might from his 2-year-old and early 3-year-old days, when he looked set to develop into something better than a handicapper.

 

However, he has run two very solid races in hot York handicaps since joining Appleby, and although he finished behind a couple of today’s rivals last time, the return to an artificial surface might see him hard to beat off what is a fair mark.

6.00 NEWCASTLE

1pt win BEDFORD FLYER (6-1 BetVictor, William Hill, 11-2 general)

 

8.52 NEWCASTLE

2pts win WADE’S MAGIC (11-1 BetVictor, William Hill, 10-1 general)

 

All the major bookmakers are desperate for you to back these two horses....

My advice wait until ten minutes before the off and I'll have read up both of these races hopefully.

 

They may both be sound propositions but let the cast sort themselves out and non runners be declared. Then the stage will be set....

 

 

 

Edited June 30, 2023 by sporting sam

[Sporting Sam]

The stage is already set

A very early choice vintage clarets

Makes what appears to be an all weather debut for Richard Fahey.

His  win recently over Lihou standsout.

He is unpenalised and his third in the Coventry two years ago marks him out as an achieving two year old runner who is about to reach his potential now he is older and maturing.

Vintage clarets

Win.

Wide open race and there are more selections to come.

Edited June 30, 2023 by sporting sam

[Sporting Sam]

8 hours ago, sporting sam said:

The stage is already set

A very early choice vintage clarets

Makes what appears to be an all weather debut for Richard Fahey.

His  win recently over Lihou standsout.

He is unpenalised and his third in the Coventry two years ago marks him out as an achieving two year old runner who is about to reach his potential now he is older and maturing.

Vintage clarets

Win.

Wide open race and there are more selections to come.

That went well.

[Sporting Sam]

Newcastle 8.52

Miss Willows

Each way

It is very hard for maidens to make any impact on handicap debut. Lots of those have been around the block and are hardened handicappers. Several are dropping down in mark and have been there done that. Miss willows drops into this class for the first time and has tried more than one course.

[Sporting Sam]

Hugh has put up a string of losing bets recently including two absolute shockers yesterday.

The people who pay him to put up these selections won't mind too much. They are bookmakers who will be collecting hundreds of thousands of pounds for every losing selection. When Hugh is good he is very good, but more often than not, he is not good. Today's selection is much better than usual and the rationale behind it is fair.

Here is Hugh's take on Brighton's opener.

He mentions no other horse, nor that there are no less than five course and distance winners.  At least his pick was a "nice" price.

"Today’s Flat cards have an unappealing look to me from a betting point of view, but ROUNDABOUT SILVER ran creditably at Newmarket last time and might be worth chancing on his return to Brighton (2.25), having won on his sole previous start at the track.

 

He was suited by the run of the race when winning here last year for Jim Boyle, one of three that challenged late down the wide outside off a strong pace, but that was still a fair run given the placed horses were both previous course winners, the form looking solid for the grade overall.

 

He didn’t show much on his first two starts for Simon Dow this year, but following a break, there was more promise at Newmarket last time, especially as he challenged more towards the far side, which may not have been the best part of the track.

 

He’s been dropped a further 2lb for that effort and drops from 0-75 to 0-65 grade. His stable hasn’t had a winner since March, and the other negative aspect to his chance, considering the circumstances of his previous win here, is that there isn’t guaranteed to be a good pace, but at his price this morning he just about looks worth chancing.

 

HUGH'S BEST BETS (1-5 POINTS):

2.25 BRIGHTON

1pt win ROUNDABOUT SILVER (8-1 general)"

Darvel

win

Is Sam's choice.

This is a very tricky race with so many in form runners, so there is no point taking too strong a line with this race. Lots of cases can be made and the winner will be the jockey who is shrewd enough to use all the factors that make Brighton such an idiosyncratic course. What I can say is that course winner Darvel has stall 1, top weight and has never before run in a class six.

Darvel has raced in his juvenile days in class 2. 

Finally he has Billy Loughnane on board, still claiming his three pounds.

[MCLARKE]

My "system" horse is DREAMS DELIVERED. I like horses that have had a good rest, this horse fits the bill having last run 74 days ago.

[yossa6133]

Another one for you! Surprised it won so easily, I was crazy to take you on 🤣

[Sporting Sam]

I'd love Hugh to come on here and tell us why he didn't put that one up.

In the last 3 years Roundabout Silver (GB) has met

Horse	No. Of times
Darvel (IRE)	1
17th Apr 2023 Windsor(1m 31yds, Flat Hcap, Soft-Heavy in places) Darvel (IRE) 7th (16/1 9-5 Rated 71) Hector Crouch 16.00L in front of Roundabout Silver (GB) 13th (16/1 8-12 Rated 64) Luke Morris (13 ran)

[Sporting Sam]

8.45

Beverley

Rum runner

Win.

jewel of kabier

Each way.

Visored now and Mulrenhan riding.

Heavily backed and dropped in trip.

These are my reasonings.

*********************************

Rum runner held by one length in second. I couldn't say "he just failed" but he at least gave the winner "most to do".  Jewel of kabier was well held and it is very clear connections will find him a race very soon as he wasn't knocked about for any major effort and you'd have to be 'grateful' to the bookies for the extra place offered.

********************************

Here was Hugh's selection today with        'rationale '

Published 9.17 - no further selectionss

Rocconmecca showed improved form in first-time blinkers at Redcar on her latest start and, if the headgear works again, she should go close in the 7f handicap at Beverley (8.45).

She had run creditably when fitted with cheekpieces on his previous start at Ripon, and despite edging right, she pulled clear with the winner, who was notably strong in the market following a break.

That was enough to suggest she’s capable of winning in this lowly grade, and although she’s 5lb higher here, she’s relatively lightly raced and looks to be going the right way, so from a good draw, she looks to have reasonable prospects of getting off the mark.

 

HUGH'S BEST BETS (1-5 POINTS):

8.45 BEVERLEY

1pt win ROCKONMECCA (4-1 Betfair Sportsbook, BetVictor, Paddy Power, William Hill, 7-2 general

My point of this thread is you have to take the race by it's collective merits. You cannot take a race at 9 am and say this horse is going to win and totally disregard the other runners and all the prevailing factors of the race. If your selection has clocked great fractions or was faster than the second division or the older higher grade race on the card, in their previous race, so what? It has to relate to the race it is running in and the horses it is competing with. 

The other point. If the horse's ability does not match or potentially surpass it's rivals, it won't be winning. If it ain't winning at 9.17 am. It won't be winning at 8.45pm. so you've got hours and hours to work out one or two horses who'll do better. You don't necessarily have to find a better horse. You may even agree. But he's only had ONE horse all week which has bettered any of my selections in his selected races where I've gone head to head with him.

For a paid professional that is absolutely shocking and also tells you his figures simply don't add up.

Edited July 7, 2023 by sporting sam

[Sporting Sam]

Interesting that Hugh did not post up any weekend selections as Saturday and Sunday are big days.

As he says, the weather will be a factor here as will any withdrawals leading up to the off time.

If I have anything for this race I'll post up as usual closer to the time.

 

Published 9:05 - 

Analysing Monday’s racing is complicated by the prospect of possible heavy rain at both Ayr and Ripon later in the day, and that has changed my thinking since initially looking at the cards yesterday. One horse that might look a bit overpriced is MAKALU in the 1m handicap at Ripon (7.20).

An initial glance at his profile might suggest he wouldn’t be suited by any further rain, as all his wins have come on quick ground. However, I thought he shaped well when placed on his first two starts this season on softish ground, on each occasion shaping as if the step up to 1m in similar conditions would suit him well.

He continued to run well on quicker surfaces after that effort, winning at Redcar, and although he was below form at Nottingham last time, he wasn’t well positioned and I didn’t think he shaped as badly as the distance he was beaten suggested.

He gives the impression he’s going to prove best off a strong gallop, which he should get here, and although he’s the rank outsider in the betting at the time of writing he might have more in his favour here than his odds suggest.

HUGH'S BEST BETS (1-5 POINTS):

7.20 RIPON

1pt win MAKALU (20-1 general)

[Sporting Sam]

At the early odds Hughs selection looks quite good. I've taken a different line based on the draw and runners hitting a good mark. There are several but...

Ripon 7.20
Saison dor
Win
Asada
Each way
The last two years has seen the winner come out of stall 6.
Saison dor has that berth and is well treated.
Similar can be said of charlie Johnstone’s runner who won twice earlier in the year and now lays just one pound off last winning mark.

[Sporting Sam]

https://m.attheraces.com/tips/atr-tipsters/hugh-taylor

 

i haven’t looked at the picks but may give them the once over later.

Edited July 25, 2023 by sporting sam

[harry_rag]

3 hours ago, sporting sam said:

https://m.attheraces.com/tips/atr-tipsters/hugh-taylor

 

i haven’t looked at the picks but may give them the once over later.

The section under the tips may be worth a read to you racing gurus; his response to some comments he's been getting about poor results over the last couple of months. Fair enough with regards to the comments about normal variance; I suspect that the sort of people who just follow tipsters don't really understand the reality of losing runs even for a profitable system or strategy. I'd be interested to know if anyone agrees with his view on the way the markets seem to be changing (more efficient overnight that previously, let alone on day of race).