Non-League Predictions > 13th September

[Darran]

Barnet v Dorking

Obviously I had been very confident that Barnet would beat Aldershot in their last game, but they decided to throw in their worst performance of the season. Even so they didn't have the greatest of luck as in the build up to the penalty that gave Aldershot the lead the ball had gone out, but the ref and linesman missed it. They had to apologise to Dean Brennan after the game due to the mistake and at 1-1 Aldershot's keeper pulled off a wonder save to keep it level. If Barnet go 2-1 up I suspect they see the game out from there. I have often highlighted their low xG compared to goals scored and at the moment it stands at 0.94 to 1.86. That obviously shows they have been clinical and they now host a Dorking side who as we know love to concede goals and chances. Their average xG against is 2.11 and average goals against is 2.86. My thinking is that Barnet are going to get more chances than they usually do and if they remain as clinical as they have been so far then they could hit 3 or 4. Dorking's 7 games so far have seen 31 goals and all have featured over 2.5 goals. I think there is every chance Barnet cover that themselves and I also think they will win. Sadly for Dorking their main striker Alfie Rutherford has picked up an ACL injury and he misses the rest of the season which is going to harm their chances going forward. Given how they set up though they should still create chances anyway and they still have the players to score them so there is potential for them to add to the goal tally themselves. Just backing Barnet for the win was tempting, but I'm actually going to take the bigger price of Barnet to win and there to be over 2.5 goals in the game.

 

Maidstone v Wealdstone

Maidstone have been a bit hold and cold so far this season with some fair wins, but also some hefty defeats. Key for them has been their poor defence because they have kept just one cleansheet so far this season and that came in a 1-0 win over Torquay and it is no surprise that that it came against them given how poor Torquay have been in front of goal this term. They were woeful against Gateshead as highlighted above and managed just 4 shots during the game. I'm surprised that Wealdstone are such a big price here given how well they have done so far this season. I don't necessarily expect them to stay as high in the table as they are, but they have a decent enough side that should be capable of finishing mid-table. They played in the live game in the last set of matches and I thought they more than held their own against a good Woking side and the 1-1 result was a fair reflection on the game. The slight concern for me is their lack of goals as only twice this season have they scored more than 1, but as I mention Maidstone concede goals for fun so you have to fancy them to get at lest 1 here. What is also crucial for their chances is that only against Bromley on the opening day have they conceded more than 1 goal so there is every chance 1 goal might be enough for the away side and the price for an away win is too big for me.

 

Wrexham v Dagenham & Redbridge

I have no idea where their 4-1 win over Bromley on Bank Holiday Monday came from because Dagenham have been pretty poor otherwise. I did wonder if Darryl McMahon might get sacked after their woeful effort last time against Notts Country where they lost 5-0. I know County punished them, but there is every chance they won't have an easier game all season as they were gifted all 5 goals from a very kind Dagenham defence. The average xG for Dagenham's opponents is 1.77 and they have averaged 1.7 goals against. That 4-1 really was an anomaly as they only managed 5 shots on target during the game and Bromley's xG was actually higher. As an aside I haven't got round to watching the Wrexham documentary on Disney + yet, but by all accounts it is very good and I look forward to watching it. I'm looking forward to taking them on again especially away from home because that Woking game I mentioned above proved to me Phil Parkinson is not the right man for the job, however they had the perfect game for them last time against Dorking and this one promises to be the same. They put 5 past Dorking's poor defence and quite frankly it is easy to see them getting close to and even matching that in this match. Ollie Palmer has finally started to find the net (good news for us) so that means he and Paul Mullin now have 9 goals between them. The should easily reach double figures here and I would be surprised if Wrexham don't cover the -1 handicap with ease.

 

Barnet & Over 2.5 goals 1pt @ 5/2 with Bet365 (take up to 2/1)

Wealdstone 1pt @ 12/5 with William Hill and Betfred (Ladbrokes and Coral both 13/5 and take up to 7/4)

Wrexham -1 2pts @ 5/4 with Betfair and Paddy Power (take up to Evs)