MattyNeth Posted September 7, 2005 Share Posted September 7, 2005 Doing the rounds on the betfair forum at present, and seems decent. Quite simply in football, laying the draw and covering with the 0-0 correct score. If a team scores then cover your liabilities with the draw which should have gone out in price. Profit not huge, but pretty certain. The key seems to be selecting the "right type of game". Laying the draw in a game where the fav is 1.45 and the underdog scores first, the draw is going to be even more of a possibility in punters' eyes and the price will contract accordingly. Say a match is priced as - Home 2.3, Away 3.45, Draw 3.65 - if either side score, they are going to move odds on and the draw is going to move at least 1 full point upwards giving you the chance to trade out for the profit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted September 7, 2005 Share Posted September 7, 2005 Re: A system with merit? Thats the key matty. Like you say , better used on matches wih levelish teams or the odds may actually go in rather than out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted September 11, 2005 Share Posted September 11, 2005 Re: A system with merit? I'm gonna give this a go today on the Bolton match I've layed the draw at 3.35 for £36 and have backed 0-0 at 10.0 for £10. I'm hoping it stays 0-0 for a while and then a latish goal in the 2nd half will do nicely! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted September 11, 2005 Share Posted September 11, 2005 Re: A system with merit? Hmmm 0-0! Made £1.12 overall! I could have traded out at half time for about £4 profit, but wanted to see what happened when the goal came........ Not huge money, but if the principle is right then I can up the stakes. Will definately try it again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted September 11, 2005 Share Posted September 11, 2005 Re: A system with merit? 2 problems with this system. 1) The other team scores STRAIGHT AWAY making it 1-1 before a new market is set and the score remains 1-1. I've seen this happen. 2) The underdog scores first, as previously highlighted, and the draw price shortens making it impossible to lock in a profit. The first one is impossible to avoid and let's face it, is very rare. If the second example occured, would you hope that the draw price drifted back to where you could cut your losses as the game progressed without the favourite scoring an equaliser? I suggest anyone trying this for the first time, makes notes eg. times of goals, draw prices in -running, games involving hot favourites etc...before attempting it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted September 13, 2005 Share Posted September 13, 2005 Re: A system with merit? Anyone attempting this in any of the live games tonight then?.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted September 17, 2005 Share Posted September 17, 2005 Re: A system with merit? As I've nothing better to do I'll monitor this for the Hull v Luton game live on Sky at 12:45 Draw laid theoretically @ 3.35 to win £40, liabilty of £94.00 0-0 backed @ 9.00 £12.50 to win £95.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted September 17, 2005 Share Posted September 17, 2005 Re: A system with merit? The draw price will have to reach 5.00 to make back the £12.50 on 0-0 :eek Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted September 17, 2005 Share Posted September 17, 2005 Re: A system with merit? 40mins gone, draw price into 2.76 after 2 disallowed goals. 0-0 = 4.8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted September 17, 2005 Share Posted September 17, 2005 Re: A system with merit? As with Hodgey, I could've made £3 - £4 at current HT prices ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted September 17, 2005 Share Posted September 17, 2005 Re: A system with merit? 20 mins to go and a goal now would prove profitable. The draw is currently 1.80 and I would expect this to rise to over 5.00 if a goal is scored. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted September 17, 2005 Share Posted September 17, 2005 Re: A system with merit? An away goal on 84 mins.... A new market formed on 87 mins and the draw price to back was 5.0 :( I would've been better off taking the £3-£4 profit at half time and there was a chance the home team could've equalised in those 3 mins of market suspension. From what I've seen today I still maintain it's a risky system. Cheers DC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted September 17, 2005 Share Posted September 17, 2005 Re: A system with merit? Portsmouth 1 (4 mins) Birmingham 1 (6 mins) Need I say anymore! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted September 17, 2005 Share Posted September 17, 2005 Re: A system with merit? An away goal on 84 mins.... A new market formed on 87 mins and the draw price to back was 5.0 I would've been better off taking the £3-£4 profit at half time and there was a chance the home team could've equalised in those 3 mins of market suspension. From what I've seen today I still maintain it's a risky system. Cheers DCAre you sure it took THREE minutes for the new market to form on an in-play market for a game shown live on Sky? I appreciate what you are saying in there being a risk a goal could be scored straight after but are you slightly exagerating to enhance your point? I've never seen it take more than a minute for the new market to reform. Anyhow, with the draw price only going to 5.0 even with 3 minutes left I agree this is probably best left alone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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