Hunter Chase - Stratford Hunter Chase night

[Darran]

Good card at Stratford tonight and the feature looks a cracking contest. Here are my thoughts on the card.

 

5.35

Across The Line - Ran his best race since winning at Southwell in November off 120 at Cheltenham last time on his first start for Syd Hosie. He finished 3^rd behind Solomon Grey that night when not really seeing out the trip and it was in a good form race in my view with Stratagem who won at Southwell on Tuesday behind him in 4th. The drop back in trip is going to suit and if he can repeat that effort then he's a contender here. Trainers horses seem to be in good form as well.

 

Capitaine - Passed the post in front last year only for his jockey to weigh in light with no explanation as to how it happened. I don't think the weight made any difference as he was always holding Creative Inerta and he would have won anyway. I think this is a stronger race this year, but then he did win a harder race at Leicester back in March which is the only other 2m hunter chase he can run in. Not surprisingly he didn't stay 2m4f at Kempton last time where he didn't help his cause by being very keen. He has a great chance of making up for last year's disappointment and no doubt this race has been the target.

 

Rewritetherules - Did finish well in front of Capitaine at Kempton, but that's not a big surprise as he stays better than that one and I think the form can be reversed over this trip. He was 3^rd at Cheltenham behind Envoye Special last time, but was quite well beaten in the end.

 

Azzuri - Landed a Listed Race at Ayr over 2m back in April 2019 which was his high point. He had a couple of good place runs when jump racing returned in summer 2020, but after that he lost his way and dropped massively down the handicap and he eventually finished 2^nd a couple off times just over a year ago off marks of 116 and 118. He has thrived for going pointing though winning 4 times including a couple over 3m which wouldn't be his best trip. He's been clocking good time figures and I expect him to make the running which tends to be a plus round here. The problem here though is Longhouse Sale and Capitaine also like to make the running so we could see a hot pace here and that might just set it up for a closer. Tristan Durrell takes over from the novice riders who have been riding him in points and as much as he will have to improve on what he showed under rules the last time he ran, he clearly has regained his confidence.

 

Demain Des L'aube - A really interesting runner as he has been running in races where has hasn't been staying all season, but he's been running in really good races. He ran really well behind Latenightpass at Charm Park in March until his stamina gave out and he then travelled really well into contention at Carlisle until he again failed to see out the trip. I put him up at a massive price at Aintree where I thought he ran which great credit until fading back into 11th late on. I'm slightly concerned that this might be too sharp a test for him, but I think he has shown there is still an engine inside and this test is certainly going to be more suitable than any he has faced so far this season and he's a contender for me.

 

Frankie Rapper - Not run since January 2019 and even his form from then wouldn't be good enough to win this. It also all came over further.

 

Longhouse Sale - Clearly doesn't stay 3m in points and he won his only race over 2m4f at Kimble on Easter Saturday. He was only beaten a neck when 3^rd off 137 at Uttoxeter last June over 2m so that run would give him a chance here. He certainly has a chance, but I prefer others.

 

Sparkleandshine - Not shown a great deal in either hunter chase this year and not for me.

 

Verdict - I always thought I would be backing Capitaine for this to make amends for what happened last year, but for me the make up of the race doesn't really suit him. He's unlikely to get an easy lead like he did at Leicester and this race, on paper at least, looks much stronger than last year's race. So as much as he is a possible winner I am opposing. Azzuri and Longhouse Sale should be suited to this trip back under rules and are possible winners although I'm happy to look elsewhere especially as they could help set things up for a closer along with Capitaine. I'm not sure what is going on with Syd Hosie's horses, but clearly Cheltenham sure a massive improvement from them and then he had the winner at Newton Abbot on Wednesday. I think if Across The Line repeats the 3^rd from Cheltenham then he is the most likely winner as that was a cracking run and the step down in trip looks set to suit. The other one I have to back is Demain Des L'aube. I hoped he would be the sort of price he is as for me his form figures mask the ability he does have. He could have a strong pace to aim at and I am hoping that he will be capable of picking up the pieces at a big price.

 

Across The Line 2pts @ 100/30 with everyone apart from William Hill who are 7/2 (take up to 9/4)

Demain Des L'aube 1pt e/w @ 16/1 with Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair, Betfred, Coral and Ladbrokes (take up to 8/1)

 

6.05 

Caid Du Berlais - Had a great 2^nd career as a pointer/hunter chaser including winning the big one at Punchestown twice. Looked good in two hunter chase wins last year before finding a 3^rd Punchestown bid too much for him. This season he has kept to pointing and he clearly still has a lot of ability even at the age of 13 having won all 3. His best win was probably at Ston Easton in March when Dandy Dan would have finished 2^nd to him if he hadn't unseated at 2 out. 

 

Fumet D'oudairies - 2^nd in the John Corbet Cup to Vaucelet last season where he didn't really stay and this trip looks ideal for him. This season he's 3/3 in points including beating hunter chase winner Normofthenorth in January. That means he is now 7/8 in points. He ran in the big one at Cheltenham in March and just found things happening way too quickly for him and he never threatened, but he proved his well being when winning at Kimble on Easter Saturday last time.

 

Igor - Another one to win on Easter Saturday as he landed the Lady Dudley Cup in good style at Chaddesley Corbett. That wasn't much of a contest though this year and for me he has a little bit to find with the other two.

 

Verdict - I think Caid Du Berlais is the most likely winner, but for me the price is short enough as Fumet D'oudairies is a good horse and will make it tough for him so its a no bet race.

 

6.35

Ask D'man - Clearly got to respect anything David Christie sends over and he landed this race last year with Vaucelet. He won a maiden hunter chase at Clonmel back in January over 2m4f and he jumped out to his left so going this way round looks the way to go with him, but he just outclassed them there. He then went to Naas in the race Billaway won and he stopped very quickly that day after making the running. He was then beaten a neck over 2m4f at Down Royal, before a well beaten 3^rd at Tramore behind Good Bye Sam when stepping back up in trip. A month ago he won a point cosily. The big issue to me is he doesn't look like he's going to stay this far as any time he's tried over 2m4f under rules he hasn't looked like he stays. Hopefully he will help bring the pace to the race though.

 

Blazing Tom - Had really found his form in points and after not jumping or travelling well he got going late on to win the Heart Of All England at Hexham. That suggests he will stay this trip, but this is a much harder contest and if he travels and jumps as badly as he did for most of the way at Hexham then he's really going to be on the back foot here. I'm also not sure he is good enough to win this anyway.

 

Getting Closer - A winning machine in points as he's won 8 from 15 and is 4 from 5 this season. He does have a fair bit to find on form though as they aren't strong contests he's been winning. He ran in 2 hunter chases last season finishing a well beaten 2^nd to Dubai Quest at Fakenham and then a well beaten 3^rd in the Intermediate Final at Cheltenham where he looked a non-stayer so I'm not sure about the trip for him either.

 

Go Go Geronimo - Ran a huge personal best when finishing 2^nd to Latnightfumble at Cheltenham especially as he helped set a fast pace. The fact that he fought all way after doing that meant he come out with huge credit. He has to have some sort of chance here and he should at least help set the pace, but his jockey could claim 7lbs at Cheltenham and he can't here which will have a negative impact on his chances.

 

Its On The Line - Looks a cracking but at just £8k as he's done really well for his new connections. He was 5^th and 4^th in his first two starts and then went straight into hunter chase company where he finished just behind Ask D'man at Tramore. He was given a bit of an educational ride and stayed on nicely to nearly get 3rd. Since then he has won a maiden hunter chase at Cork and a novice hunter chase at Tipperary 3 weeks ago. He just got up to lead late on in both and I certainly think the slow pace in the Tipperary contest didn't help as he is a horse who looks all about stamina and his pedigree backs that up. He's jumping still needs improvement , but then he's only had 5 starts so that should come. Last year in this race they went no pace, but there are 2 or 3 front runners here so hopefully it is run at a decent pace as that will help his chances and clearly stepping up in trip should bring about improvement as well. 

 

Rebel Dawn Rising - A horse I like and I think the Leicester win is a strong piece of form. He then didn't run for nearly two months when pulling up in the Intermediate Final at Cheltenham. Like Go Go Geronimo he helped set the pace, but for me he looked a non stayer. Maybe he needed the race after a bit of a break and his trainer does do well at this meeting, but I'm just not sure he's going to stay well enough to win this as much as I do think he has the ability.

 

Latenightfumble - Gina got off her at Cheltenham and said that she could be even better than Latenightpass which is some statement. She looked like she would win easily than she did that night as she cruised into contention, but the 2^nd really made her pull out all the stops. That is clearly the best form in the race and she must have a great chance of following up especially as she clearly stays well.

 

Verdict - A fascinating John Corbet Cup. They are joint favs and to be honest I do think one of Latenightfumble or Its On The Line will win. I was hoping I might be able to back them both, but that clearly isn't possible at the prices they are so I am going to side with the Irish horse. He's clearly progressing very nicely and should really relish the step up in trip. His trainer is one of the shrewdest around and he wouldn't be sending him over if he didn't think he could win. I just wonder if that Cheltenham run might have left a mark where Latenightfumble is concerned and he's been on the go all season so in the back of my mind it could be a race too much for him and that's why I'm going with Its On The Line. If Rebel Dawn Rising stays then he would be the main danger to those two.

 

Its On The Line 2pts @ 9/4 with Skybet, William Hill, Coral and BetVictor (take up to 15/8)

 

7.05

Bob And Co - It was mentioned that he was going to go to France for the big meeting at Auteuil last weekend, but instead he is bidding to go one better than he did in this race last year. He certainly comes here a fresher horse this time around as he's only been seen finishing 2^nd to Cousin Pascal at Haydock and then falling at the 9^th at Cheltenham. He's only been entered once since when put in the same race he won at Hexham last year so its hard to know if he had a setback or they have just decided to wait for this. There wasn't much wrong with his run in this last year and he had a really tough race at Punchestown so I do get a feeling he was a bit flat after that. Law Of Gold beat him by just 5½L, but I think he will reverse the form this time around. There was so much confidence about him going into Cheltenham that there is no reason to think that he isn't still good enough to win this.

 

Dandy Dan - He gave the impression that he was getting better with every start in points this season as he gave his young jockey Lauren Keen-Hawkins experience. You may remember that I was wondering about her ability as it was a very soft unseat behind Caid Du Berlais at Ston Easton, but she didn't half prove me wrong at Cheltenham as I thought she gave him a fantastic ride to beat Caryto Des Brosses. There certainly wasn't any fluke about the performance either as he jumped and travelled well and really powered away from the 2^nd up the hill. After the race I said that he was good enough to come here and whilst I wasn't necessarily thinking the likes of Bob And Co and Vaucelet would turn up I still think he has a fantastic chance of following up.

 

Dieu Vivant - Just can't see how he gets involved at all as his form is a league below the best of these.

 

Downtown Getaway - Has beaten Just Cause easily at Kelso and last week ay Huntingdon, but Just Cause would get lapped by a few of these if running in this and the rest of his form wouldn't be good enough to win either. I'd also have him as a doubtful stayer, but he does have James King on top and obviously he does come here full of confidence.

 

Law Of Gold - A good winner of this race last year and given he also won the John Corbet Cup I did think he had the potential to be a multiple winner of this race, but on everything he has done this year I just can't back him. Maybe coming back to Stratford will perk him up, but he has looked really lazy all season and has barely travelled or jumped well. That was especially true at Cheltenham last time in the 4m race and yet he still came to the last looking like he was going to win. The fact he didn't said plenty about his attitude for me as I think he just didn't want to go past. If he travels and jumps like he has done the rest of the season then I just don't see how he is going to be able to get himself involved in the business end of the race. I have watched last year's race back and it was like watching a completely different horse. If that Law Of Gold turns up he's a player, but if the one we have seen this season turns up I just can't see how he wins this. The cheekpieces that went on at Cheltenham come off here.

 

Le Breuil - Got a deserved hunter chase success at Huntingdon over just under 4m 3 weeks ago and that came on the back of a good 4^th at Aintree in the Foxhunters' where he was shafted by the standing start and then just plugged on over a trip that would have been short enough for him. I can see him running a solid race here because he has done that all season, but I'm not sure I can see him actually winning it.

 

Not That Fuisse - Deservedly beat Law Of Gold at Fakenham last time and that was him landing a hat-trick after beating Peacocks Secret over the same course and distance on Gold Cup day and in between just getting up to beat Stratagem at Warwick. He's had a good season and he's been beating hunter chase winners, but there is a big question mark over his stamina for me and I'm not sure he wants to go this far. If he does stay though then he could well be involved in the finish.

 

Solomon Grey - Has got better with every start this season and was impressive in his wins at Ludlow and Cheltenham the last twice. I think the form of that Cheltenham race is strong and gives him a chance of being placed, but he's unproven over this far and I just wonder if the trip in this class of race is going to be too much for him. He might have been better off in the handicap race, but I can see why connections are rolling the dice.

 

Vaucelet - Did well to win the John Corbet Cup last year so we know this course and distance suits although it was a funny race where they went no gallop. He was a potential Cheltenham runner though after winning his first two races of the season in good style, but he then disappointed at Down Royal on Boxing Day. They gave him a break after that and he returned a couple of months ago to land a point easily and then was especially impressive over Easter at Fairyhouse when bolting up from the useful Aloneamongmillions. He then went to Punchestown and pushed Billaway close, but made a bad mistake at the last which cost him any chance of winning the race. It's hard to be certain about who would have won if he didn't make the error, but I thought Billaway still would have won. Clearly a big player on those efforts.

 

West Approach - Going to be outclassed in this.

 

Verdict - It looks a strong renewal of the Stratford Foxhunters and it is easy to see why Vaucelet is favourite as he still looks to be progressing nicely and we know course and distance isn't an issue. He does look on the short side to me though and I'm going to look elsewhere. It is no surprise that Law Of Gold has been backed as the pointing experts love the horse, but whilst a return to Stratford might perk him up I just can't have him on how he's been running this year. I want Bob And Co onside because on last year's form he's arguably a better horse than Vaucelet, but clearly there is the unknown about if he is still up to that sort of ability. For me that is factored into the price though. The other one I am keen to be with is Dandy Dan who I thought ran a huge race at Cheltenham under a very good ride. We know he stays and the Cheltenham win gave him every right to target this and I think he could well be good enough to win.

 

Bob And Co 1pt @ 9/2 with everyone apart from William Hill who are 5/1 (take up to 3/1)

Dandy Dan 1.5pts e/w @ 13/2 with William Hill (Bet365 are 7/1 and take up to 5/1)

 

7.35

Cat Tiger - For the 2^nd year running ran a cracker in the Aintree Foxhunters' when finishing 2^nd to Latenightpass having been 3^rd last year. That was his first hunter chase of the season as he had been running in handicaps and did win off 136 at Ascot in January. He was beaten at 8/15 at Southwell a year ago after he ran at Aintree which has to be in the back of your mind and 12-9 is obviously a huge weight to carry. With jockey's claims he is giving over a stone to all which is some task although he clearly could be up to it as we know he has won off this sort of mark in a handicap.

 

Marracudja - Thought he ran very well on hunter chase debut at Hereford when 3^rd to Wagner in January and then he won Leicester's big hunter chase at the start of March in easy style. Never got involved at Aintree where he was always out the back, but he is better than that so whilst in theory he can't beat Cat Tiger on that run this is a very different race. Tristan Durrell's 3lbs off is a plus as well.

 

Clondaw Westie - Looked set to win this race last year until he ran down the last and gave Izzie no chance of staying in the saddle. It was a strange race as Monsieur Gibraltar and Alcala decided to set a blistering gallop for pretty much the final circuit and Izzie sat off them and was in the perfect place to pick up the pieces when those two ran out of steam. That effort came on the back of a great 4^th in the Aintree Foxhunters' and a good 2^nd in a strong race at Cheltenham. This year he was running another cracking race at Aintree until unseating Izzie at the Canal Turn and although he was only 5^th at Cheltenham this year I still think that was a good run because I think it was a better race this year. The handicapper has actually dropped him 5lbs for that effort so he gets to run from a 5lbs lower mark this year compared to last.

 

Peacocks Secret - Took full advantage of Zamparelli setting a strong pace over course and distance last month and being the only one to run his race as the two market leaders both disappointed. He was 15L behind Marracudja at Leicester and even on these terms shouldn't reverse the form. At Cheltenham he was 9L behind Clondaw Westie when giving him 10lbs and including jockey claims he only has to give him a lb so in theory that does give him a chance of reversing the form, but he never really got involved in that race and does need to bounce back.

 

Zamparelli - Found things happening way too quickly for him in this race last year, but nearly took advantage of the stupid pace and Clondaw Westie's error as he finished 2^nd to Keltus. Had a bit of a frustrating season this time around with 3 2nds on the bounce in a point at Larkhill and two hunter chases including the race here as mentioned above. It certainly took me by surprise that he set such a fast pace, but was essentially a sitting duck for Peacocks Secret. He then ran at Cheltenham and given he wouldn't have stayed I thought he ran a pretty good race despite ending up 55L behind Dandy Dan in 5th. He's 4lb lower than last year and his jockey is claiming 7lbs compared to 3lbs last year so you certainly couldn't rule him out.

 

I'm Wiser Now - Not sure how the handicapper hasn't dropped him more than just 2lbs in the handicap because he has been shocking in both hunter chases he has run in this season. Won twice here last season and a return to this venue is the only glimmer of hope you can give him as you couldn't possibly fancy him on what he's done this term.

 

Verdict - Cat Tiger could be up to this, but 12-9 is a big ask and this race has good horses in it so I'm going to take him on. Clondaw Westie is well handicapped compared to Cat Tiger based on last year's Aintree Foxhunters' and it wouldn't have been a big shock if he had got round this year that he would have been well handicapped with him again. The Cheltenham run was decent and a 5lb lower mark compared to last year means he could well make up for his wayward jump at the last. I can see why Zamparelli and Peacocks Secret have their fans, but I think Marracudja is overpriced now. He looked good at Herford and Leicester and you can always forgive a poor run over the National fences. On Leicester form he has the beating of Peacocks Secret and yet is a bigger price.

 

Clondaw Westie 1.5pts @ 4/1 with everyone  (take up to 3/1)

Marracudja 0.5pt @ 11/2 with everyone apart from William Hill who are 6/1 (take up to 9/2)

 

8.05

Waking up to see that Fier Jaguen and Feuille De Lune have both come out is hardly ideal and obviously I have had to rewrite the preview this morning. I thought Luke Harvey's Spanish Jump was going to be a bet without the front two in the betting and so without them in the race he obviously becomes the bet. He has run 4 times this season and won his maiden and restricted very impressively on his 2^nd and 4^th starts. He was 2^nd to a horse at Charing who went on to win 4 more times this season and his 2^nd last time at Chaddesley Corbett on Easter Saturday was behind a good horse who has won 7 of his last 8 starts. Oval Street looks to be his main rival and he's had a good season winning 3 times from 5 starts, but to me they have come in weaker races so his form doesn't look as strong. Both can front run so hopefully it won't be a tactical affair and Spanish Jump does have James King on top

 

Spanish Jump 2pts @ 11/10 with Bet365, William Hill and BetVictor (take up to 10/11)

 

8.40

Mystic Man - Pulled up on his debut over here at Charing in December and then had a long break before winning at Barbury over 2m3f last month. It wasn't much of a contest and he was left clear at 3 out when the horse just in front of him fell. He then weakened very quickly over 3m when pulling up last time. Suspect this test will suit.

 

Tufton Avenue - Didn't have the pace to go with the front 4 at Aintree, but if anything this looks a weaker contest so he certainly has a chance.

 

Churchman - Got tapped for toe when making his debut in a point bumper at Sandon over Easter, but then stayed on to finish 2^nd to Good Boy. The winner and the 3^rd both ran at Aintree and both were well beaten so did nothing whatsoever for the form.

 

Patanita - Looked very impressive when winning a point bumper at Maisemore on debut. They seemed to go a solid enough pace as well so the form should be reliable. He won by a couple of lengths but pretty much did it on the bridle so was value for more than the winning margin.

 

Presenting Miranda - Landed a point bumper on debut at Larkhill in December, but the form doesn't look that strong and the winning time was slower than the other division. Things haven't really gone right over fences since as she pulled up in heavy ground over 3m on her next run. Last month she ran twice first of all she got cannoned into by a loose horse just before the 9^th fence and Alice was forced out of the saddle in a very unfortunate incident. Easter Saturday she went to Dingley and finished 2^nd in a very weak maiden over 2m4f.

 

Verdict - I have had some rotten luck in this race over the years with horses slipping up and getting hampered so I am due a result and to me if Patanita repeats his Maisemore performance then he ought to win this. It was an impressive performance and he was well fancied beforehand. Presenting Miranda and Mystic Man look the two dangers.

 

Patanita 2pts @ 5/4 with everyone apart from Bet365 (take up to 10/11) 

[Richard B]

Hello Darran , 

This Demain Des L'aube , ive had this horse in mind for a while ......i managed to get 25/1 on the Bfair Sportsbook ( which was only available for approx 90 seconds) 

Fingers crossed the horse gets into the places at least - i will be down a bundle if it doesnt

 

good luck for tonight