Cheltenham Hunter Chase night

[Darran]

Some strong fancies on the card so let's hope a profit is made. Every horse has been covered.

 

4.40

Rewritetherules - Ran his best race for his new owner/trainer/rider last time at Kempton when a 6L 2^nd to Gesskille, but he didn't exactly look in need of a horse that wanted dropping back down in trip to 2m. That run last time though did suggest he still had the ability to win a race like this.

 

Envious Editor - Had done most of his running over 2m when trained in Ireland so no real surprise that he has looked a bit of a non stayer in points. He's been a bit unlucky to bump into some good horses in the early part of the season as well because he would have finished 2^nd to Feuille De Lune at Charing in December had he not unseated at the last and he was always going to struggle in deep ground at Chaddesley Corbett over Christmas given the pace Fier Jaguen set that day. He then went to Ludlow and ran in the first hunter chase of the season and he's travelled really well into the race before running out of steam after a mistake at the 3^rd last. After that run he had a wind op which I think has probably also helped him as there is every chance that is also why he wasn't finishing his races off. His first run after that was at Brafield where he actually found himself outpaced over 3m before staying on into 3rd. A couple of weeks later he finally won a restricted where it took the 2 runners over 8 minutes to finish. Easter Saturday saw him put in a very impressive performance at Sandon where he bolted up by 15L. That was over 2m5f and it wasn't a strong race by any means, but crucially for me he saw his race out really well which is why I think the wind op has helped him. I imagine this race will have been the target and he's a big player.

 

Envoye Special - Amazing how he's managed to win over 3m in points a couple of times this season as he looks a complete non-stayer in hunter chases. He even beat Sixteen Letters over 3m in December at Larkhill which is good form. His two hunter chase runs saw him go off way too quick in soft ground in the Welsh Foxhunter at Ffos Las and he duly failed to see out the trip. He took a keen hold at Stratford a month later, but was held up although the result was the same as he failed to stay again. After that he has bolted up in a Mixed Open at Trebuddon which is clearly a short track based on the winning time of 5.44. He was a really good 2^nd in this last year to Fumet D'oudairies and he should be involved again. Not sure if James King has chosen to ride Envious Editor over him or not as Envious Editor is also owned by Cousin Pascal's owner.

 

Famoso - I thought there was a bit of promise in the Southwell run where he just didn't stay and he was exhausted at Wincanton last time when falling at the last where his jockey should have pulled him up before the fence. Drop to 2m should suit, but I'd be surprised if he was good enough to beat at least a couple of this.

 

Fan Club Aulmes - Apart from when pulling up at Charm Park last month he has had a very good season winning twice and finishing a close 2^nd to Molineaux at Larkhill in February and that horse has won plenty this season. There is definitely some substance to his form and he won over 2m4f last season to give some hope the 2m trip should be fine. Has the very good Alice Stevens in the saddle and he certainly isn't out of this.

 

Sparkleandshine - His only win under rules came back in 2018 over 2m so this drop down in trip could well suit, but the bigger issue could be if he is good enough. He was a good 2^nd off 112 over 2m3f at Stratford last June, but back there in a hunter chase last month he never really got involved. He had been leading in his two points this season before not staying over 3m so maybe not being able to front run didn't help. He might not get the chance to do it here either and he was 18L behind Envoye Special that day. He wouldn't be a shock winner, but at the same time he doesn't make much appeal from a betting point of view.

 

Kostantina - Wasn't very good on the flat and was struggling to get competitive when going pointing until she suddenly went and won at Dingley over Easter. Made all that day and will find it much harder to make the running against this quality of opposition.

 

Verdict - Fan Club Aulmes certainly has a chance, but I think the winner will either be Envoye Special or Envious Editor. I have had to change this bit again as the prices this morning are very different to what they were last night. I was hoping to out up Envious Editor, but he went too short then this morning he has drifted out and it means he has become value again so he is the bet. Envoye Special who was the value last night has been backed this morning. For multi purposes I have permed the two of them up although the prices they are we can only really back one so it is Envious Editor.

 

Envious Editor 1pt @ 15/8 with William Hill and Betvictor (take up to 11/8)

 

5.15

Castle Trump - Jumping was an issue when he first ran over here in 2020 as he failed to get round in 3 runs. He missed last season, but has been making up for lost time this season having won 5 of his 6 starts. He's been winning impressively and the only disappointing run was when he was 3^rd at Horseheath in January, but he then went on to beat the winner of that race in a match last month. He's clearly useful and progressing, but I'm not sure there is too much depth to what he has been beating.

 

Famous Clermont - Has shown quirks in the past having run out over hurdles last year and then idling badly when beaten by Marcle Ridge at Barbury in December and when Virak nearly caught him at Charlton Horethorne two starts back. He then went into a hunter chase at Exeter and he was really impressive and certainly wasn't stopping that day. Indirocco is a solid yardstick so to beat that horse by 8L in a canter was seriously impressive stuff. I do have a slight concern about the trip and you do have to worry slightly about him getting up the hill given his tendency to idle, but he has the best form in the race and sets a high standard.

 

Go Go Geronimo - Took a while to win a maiden, but has looked fairly progressive since winning one at Duncombe Park in February. The only time he's been beaten since he won was in heavy ground and whilst he has a bit to find on bare form at least he's heading in the right direction.

 

How To Get Away - Looked very good earlier in the season when beating Mammoth by 17L and then Clondaw Westie by 3L. The problem is he was beaten by Castle Trump (reversing form as mentioned above) and then Fier Jaguen last time. Clearly that is still good form, but with Rebel Dawn Rising also beating him last season he does look like the stables 2^nd string.

 

Minimalistic - Was miles behind Famous Clermont in January and although he has progressed since then winning his last two, it does look like he might struggle to stay this trip let alone be good enough to reverse the form.

 

Rebel Dawn Rising - Was clearly progressing fast at the back end of last season when winning impressively at Garthorpe twice and then he bolted up on his seasonal return at Horsheath in February. He then made his hunter chase debut at Leicester and I think that race was a strong contest. He made the running at a fairly slow pace, but he stayed on really well to beat a good horse in Benefaktor and Sixteen Letters was back in 3^rd so the form is rock solid for me. That was over 2m4f, but he has shown that he stays well also so I don't have to many concerns about the step up to this trip. I thought he jumped really well at Leicester which will also stand him in good stead here and he has to go on any shortlist.

 

Steel Express - Only got a BHA rating of 94 and although he has won a point this season he was 7L behind Minimalistic last time and shouldn't be good enough.

 

The Whistle Blower - Started the season with a couple of 3^rd in maidens where he stayed on well in the first of them and finished tired in the 2^nd of them. Then he went and won 3 on the bounce going through his grades in good style. He beat Every Minute who is a good horse two starts back at Brafield and then hacked up by 18L last time. Clearly progressing nicely although Every Minute is trained by Tom Ellis and they run Latenightfumble here which makes me think she is better than Every Minute so The Whistle Blower might well have to find more improvement to land this.

 

Voie Dans Voie - Been well beaten by How To Get Away and Castle Trump this season so shouldn't be good enough to land this.

 

Latenightfumble - As you might have guessed she is related to Latenightpass who actually won this race in 2019. She ran in a couple of point to point bumpers last season finishing 3^rd at Aintree and then 2^nd at Stratford where she looked every inch a stayer. This season she started of with a 2^nd to Fier Jaguen at Chaddesley Corbett which was respectable return. She's then won 3 on the bounce in really good style although in the 2^nd of those wins Fier Jaguen didn't run his race which is a shame as it would have given us something to rate the form on. She's clearly progressive and although on bare form she has a bit to find she has a leading chance.

 

Luscious Lilly - Looks to have little chance.

 

Sine Nomine - Another horse who looks very progressive and once she lost her maiden tag at Alnwick in January she has landed 4 on the bounce going through her grades. She didn't jump as well as she can last time, but her jumping has looked good before that and she hasn't really had to come off the bridle in any of her wins. She has to find more improvement again to land this, but she's certainly going the right way.

 

Verdict - There are plenty of 1s in the form of these horses and it can be tricky trying to work out who brings the strongest form to the race. It has to be said though that Famous Clermont sets a very high benchmark and I'm not sure any of these will match what he has shown he is capable of. I do worry about what he might find off the bridle up the hill, but he might well just have too much class for them. The problem is his price and at the moment he is around the right price so it is hard to put him up as a single bet. Rebel Dawn Rising looks the biggest danger as I loved the way he jumped at Leicester and I think he will stay this far. Out of those that have yet to run in a hunter chase I think Sine Nomine could be the main one so at this stage I will have small win bets on those two and see if we get a drift on Famous Clermont, but he will be the one I put in the multi bets.

 

Rebel Dawn Rising 0.5pts @ 9/2 with most bookies (take up to 7/2)

Sine Nomine 0.5pts e/w @ 8/1 with Skybet, William Hill, Ladbrokes and Coral (take up to 6/1)

 

5.50

Fix Le Kap - Was a surprise 2^nd in this last year given he wasn't coming into the contest in great form so to only lose by a neck to Trio For Rio was some effort especially as he came there looking like he was going to win on the run-in. He was then disappointing again in two runs pointing after that. This season he's finished a close 2^nd a couple of times in small field points. If he runs like he did last year then he has a chance, but that run really does stick out like a sore thumb.

 

Hidden Charmer - He has won over 3m pointing including last time over Easter at Chaddesley Corbett, but he's never really struck me as a horse who really stays 3m and he has nearly 2f further to travel here. He was 3^rd at Ludlow behind Pont Aven in February, but again he just looked like a non stayer.

 

I'm Wiser Now - 3^rd in this race last year beaten 7L and he came into the race in much better form that he has so far this season as he had won a couple of hunter chases at Stratford. This year he was 3^rd at Charing and then a very disappointing well beaten 5^th at Leicester. He didn't jump well in this race last year as he jumped left handed and he may not have been in love with the track which is another worry.

 

Knockaderry Flyer - Was a shock winner of this back in 2017 after which he became one of the worst handicapped horses in training as he was rated 125 for winning a bad race. He's been kept busy this season having run 8 times already and has actually won 3 including his last two. He was a well beaten 5^th in this last year though and I couldn't have him repeating his 2017 success.

 

Majestic Touch - Had 558 days off before making his debut for Alan Hill in March where he took a very keen hold before pulling up which wasn't a surprise as he'd never been 3m before. Last time at Kimble he finished last of 3 over 2m4f when looking outpaced. When he was running under rules before he also looked like he needed more of a stamina test so maybe now he's got the freshness out of the way he might stay better. If he was able to run up to his old rules form he wouldn't be out of this.

 

Moratorium - Had a really good start to the season when winning 3 on the bounce including beating Tel'Art by 1/2L at Larkhill. His trainer rode him in a hunter chase at Warwick when he ran well to finish 2^nd to Reikers Island and he looked like he could do with a bit of stiffer test of stamina. He was given a bit of a break after that and finished 4^th at Didmarton when again looking like it was a bit sharp for him. Last time he just got up to win a 3 runner race. His trainer could easily have ridden him or he could have used Nathan Green again, but Myles clearly wants the horse to have the best chance possible so he has gone and booked Will Biddick for the ride. I'd imagine they have been training him for this as well and he looks to have an obvious chance.

 

Over The Bridge - Still a maiden and only rated 50.

 

Tel'Art - I fancied him at Stratford last time because I thought he hadn't been given a great ride at Bangor in soft ground and then he tried to keep tabs with Famous Clermont at Exeter and paid for it late on so he was overtaken for 2^nd place. He ended up going off favourite at Stratford, but I think he just found things happening all a bit too quick for him given the pace Zamparelli set. Also the over watering of the ground didn't help and that is another concern here, but given he got so close to Moratorium at Larkhill in January I think he has to be a leading contender and just maybe he will finally get his ideal conditions.

 

Trio For Rio - Last year's winner and he just held on despite jumping out to his left throughout which is something I expect him to do again here. He won a 3 runner race at the start of the season and then was 3^rd at Larkhill behind Maitree Express, but it was probably disappointing he didn't beat Envoye Special for 2^nd place. He then went to Kingston Blount where he pulled up. That was two months ago so I am guessing that he had an issue that day given we haven't seen him since and the run was too bad to be true. Clearly got obvious claims to land this contest again.

 

Verdict - If Trio For Rio bounces back from his poor run last time then he has a chance of winning this for the 2^nd year running, but the fact he jumps to his left isn't going to help him and although he could uphold form with those he beat in this race last year I think two that didn't run in the contest are good enough to land this. Moratorium looks like he's been lined up for this race and the fact his trainer has booked Will Biddick for the ride instead of riding him himself tells you they want him to have the best possible chance of winning. I am also going to cover Tel'Art who was just behind him earlier in the season and on his Exeter run I think he's got a very good chance here. He looks way over priced at 14/1.

 

Moratorium 2pts @ 2/1 with William Hill and BetVictor (take up to 6/4)

Tel'Art 1pt e/w @ 8/1 with Bet365 (take up to 5/1)

 

6.25

Cheltenham De Vaige - Won a Newton Abbot handicap off 112 in August and has run OK in 4 points this season and won the first of them beating Capitaine over 2m4f. Solid enough runs since, but would be a surprise winner of this.

 

Dandy Dan - Ended up being pretty useful for Kim Bailey getting up to a mark in the 140s. He has given Laureen Keen-Hawkins some good experience this season in 5 points which have been her only ever rides. He nearly beat Sixteen Letters first up and was a staying on 3^rd behind Captain Buck's after that. He was giving Caid Du Berlais a good race at Ston Easton until she suffered a pretty soft unseat at 2 out. He won well at Howick and then had no issues winning a match at Andoversford earlier in the month. Clearly the jockey's experience is a concern, but I think he still has a fair level of ability and if he gets round safely I can see him finishing strongly up the hill.

 

Fifty Shades - Landed the Lord Ashton of Hydes Cup at Cocklebarrow in January over 3m6f and given his stamina I'm a little surprised he hasn't run in the 4m race. He beat Sumkindofking that day and beat the same horse at Didmarton which to be fair is a pretty sharp track. He wouldn't have been suited by a match at Maisemore last time so I wouldn't read too much into the fact he was beaten at 8/13 that day. He was 3^rd in this race last year and this year's renewal looks a bit stronger on paper, but he's in good heart and can run well.

 

Mighty Stowaway - Ran a huge race at the Festival when Jamie Codd kicked for home with Winged Leader plenty early enough which did for both their chances. Even so it was a new personal best for me to finish 3^rd behind Billaway (who runs 10 minutes after this race starts). He was privately sold after that and the Sutton's purchased him and have sent him to Lawney Hill. He was due to run at Aintree but was taken out on the day of the race. He's been a solid horse over the years and clearly if he can repeat the Cheltenham 3^rd then he has a leading chance.

 

Salvatore - If they do over water than that will increase Salvatore's chances as he can be very good when there is cut in the ground. He got no luck in the Intermediate Final in 2019 when finishing 3^rd which was a good run, but he ran no sort of race at the Festival last year. This season he's been very in and out. Obviously he won at Bangor two starts back, but I wouldn't read too much into that form as Porlock Bay wasn't at his best that day and Dieu Vivant is a serial loser. Having said that he did manage to reverse form with him at Southwell the next time, but Salvatore ran below par again and it left Dieu Vivant with a very easy task. He probably does have the ability to win this, but chances are he will have needed them to really over water to do so.

 

Sumkindofking - Beat Cheltenham De Vaige last time, but was 2^nd to Fifty Shades on this previous two starts. Obviously a good jockey booking, but he doesn't seem a likely winner to me.

 

Zamparelli - Fell early on in the final race on this card last year and has had 4 2nds since he won at Ludlow last March. I thought his jockey left it a bit late to go after Bletchley Castle at Ludlow 2 starts back and then bizarrely he set a blistering gallop on his next start at Stratford. Not surprisingly he got tired and ended up finishing 2nd. My thinking was he is better over shorter distances than this, but perhaps he stays better now given he has looked a bit outpaced over shorter apart from last time where like I say he went too fast. I'm sure he will be ridden with more restraint here and could be capable of going well.

 

Caryto Des Brosses - A horse who has been blighted with injury issues which is a shame because I think he had the potential to be a Foxhunters horse and to be fair he still could be given he is only 10. He won the Restricted race at Stratford's hunter chase night in 2018 and after that I had him down as a potential top notcher as I was very impressed with him that night. The next year he was just denied by Hazel Hill in this contest and then he was headed right on the line in the big race at Stratford by Wonderful Charm. He was only seen once in 2020 when he pulled up and then he only made it back in June last year for one win at Garthorpe. This year he has only beaten 4 rivals for two wins, but he couldn't have done it any easier and to me he still has the ability he had back in 2018 and 2019. I think he could easily go one place better this year.

 

Geordie B - Thought he ran pretty well behind Dolphin Square at Lingfield in February and I think he is better than he was able to show at Carlisle last time where he only just got up to beat Shanroe Street. That one clearly did nothing for the form when beaten at Hexham last time although again I wouldn't use that as a guide as I think he should have won with a better ride. I think he will be better in a better race so I wouldn't rule him out totally, but he will have to find some more improvement I think.

 

Story Of Friends - Stuff at Wincanton last time and has no chance here.

 

Trappist Monk - Won a match at Aldington 11 days ago, but this is much tougher.

 

Verdict - This is all about Caryto Des Brosses for me as I think he is the best horse in the race. It was no surprise the 9/2 that he opened up at was very quickly taken and he's much shorter now, but I just think he wins so I still think the price is value. If Mighty Stowaway repeats the Festival run then clearly he is likely to be the main danger and if the jockey can get Dandy Dan round then he might be capable of hitting the frame, but there really is little depth to this race for me.

 

Caryto Des Brosses 4pts @ 13/8 with Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to Evs)

 

7.00

Wind Tor - Ran well enough when 3^rd at Wadebridge in January and then went handicapping winning a couple at Exeter over 3m off 86 and 94. Last time though she finished last at Warwick although the trainer said the ground was too quick for her. Would need the front two in the betting to disappoint and for the ground to be over watered.

 

Cashmoll - Won her last two, but one was a walkover and the other basically a match. I think her chance is highlighted by the fact she was 51L behind Mammoth at Horseheath on New Years Eve and Feuille De Lune beat that horse by 30L last time.

 

Feuille De Lune - One of the most impressive pointers to have run this season. She really is some tool having won 4/4. The first win in November she finished alone and then the winning margins for her other wins are 25L, 25L and 30L. At the first of those at Charing Envious Editor would have finished 2^nd but for unseating at the last and she had easily despatched him. Last time at Charm Park she was so good that every other horse but the 2^nd pulled up in the race. The trainer has described her as the best horse she has trained and considering she trained Top Wood who was placed twice in the Foxhunter here and won the Aintree Foxhunters' that proves how good she is. The one thing about her though is she jumps to the right which is clearly a concern round here. Still I think she will be too good anyway and really only has one other horse to beat.

 

Kalabaloo - That other horse is this one and she won the race in 2019 in really good style. In 2020 she was 9^th at the Festival and then last year she suffered an injury in her only start at Kelso causing her to miss the rest of the season. This season she won her first 3 starts in really good fashion, but then at the start of this month was very disappointing a Edgcote finishing a well beaten last. She needs to bounce back from that, but she obviously must be well at home otherwise she wouldn't be running. Looks the only danger to Feuille De Lune.

 

Tb Broke Her - Hasn't run too badly in her last couple of points, but has plenty to find with the principles.

 

Verdict - As long as she doesn't blow her chance by jumping out to the right then I don't see how Feuille De Lune doesn't win this. She has looked so good in her 4 pointing wins this season and has a serious engine. It is no surprise she has been backed into favouritism, but there is still some value in the price for me in what should be a match. Kalabaloo won this in 2019 and looks the only one good enough to take advantage should the jumping prove to be Feuille De Lune's downfall.

 

Feuille De Lune 4pts @ Evs with most bookies (take up to 4/6)

 

7.35

Captain Drake - New connections paid £21k at the sales for him last month after he had pulled up in the Midlands National. The positives are that he stays really well and was 4^th in last season's Welsh National as well as finishing 2^nd in the 2020 Midlands National. He had looked on the downgrade this season until he won the Devon National at Exeter in February off 127. He is a horse who has already had two wind ops and has worn a tongue tie on his last 8 starts, but the vet reported after the Uttoxeter run last time that he had a breathing problem. That has to be a concern although if he runs up to his Exeter run then he clearly is a big player.

 

Coup De Pinceau - Well behind Give Me A Copper at Newbury last time and looks an unlikely winner.

 

Dawson City - We know he stays really well and finished 3^rd behind Captain Drake at Exeter two starts back. He was beaten just under 10L that day when they carried the same weight and with jockey's claims here he gets 4lbs tonight. He ran OK over hurdles last time when finding it a bit sharp for him round Taunton. This test should be ideal for him and hard not to see him running well.

 

Gran Paradiso - Won a handicap at Sedgefield off 104 just over a year ago and managed to win a Mixed Open at Cothelstone over 3m4f last month. Was beaten at 1/2 at Barbury next time though. Stamina should be fine, but hard to see him having the class to win this.

 

Law Of Gold - I was rather surprised to see him entered in this as I thought they would look for a lesser race before heading back to Stratford for Stratford Foxhunters. He was very good that night in beating Bob And Co and prior to that he had got the better of Shantou Flyer at Fontwell. The big issue is his 3 runs this season. He ran no sort of race at Wetherby and then at Ascot although he won his only other rival Adrian Du Pont burst a blood vessel. I thought he looked a bit lazy that day and he certainly did at Fakenham last week when he never really travelled well at all and certainly never really looked like winning. I guess it could have been a sharp enough test for him, but even so he made heavy weather of getting past the 3rd. This is clearly a very different test though and although he's never been this far he ought to stay. They have also put the cheekpieces on to try and wake him up. What also has to be a concern is that connections have said they weren't going to run him in the Festival Hunter Chase anymore because he doesn't like the water jump. Both times he ran in the race he's made a mistake at the water jump and although in 2020 he ran OK to finish 7^th he ended up pulling up last year. Obviously he's at a lesser level here, but he arrives with a few question marks over him.

 

Shantou Flyer - He loves Cheltenham having won twice, finished 2^nd 4 times and 3^rd twice in 10 starts here. He's pulled up a couple of times in the Grand National, but you would imagine he will stay fine in a race like this. He's just been seen once this season when beating Jett at Fontwell although given how that horse ran at Aintree and the fact he looked like he dogged it a bit at Fontwell I'm not sure he achieved a huge amount. Even so he should be capable of running a big race at his favourite track.

 

Give Me A Copper - He has looked an ideal candidate for this race all season and it wouldn't surprise me if this has been the target. He ran as if he found 3m round Warwick on the sharp side when 3^rd in January on his debut for new connections. Last month he then went to Ludlow in race which turned into a match and I thought Will didn't use enough of his stamina which allowed Gesskille to beat him with his pace. That was still a good effort though because the winner looked very good when winning at Kempton next time out. Then at the start of the month he went to Newbury over just short of 3m and it was no surprise to see him get outpaced before staying on really well to finish 2^nd to Ami Desbois. I think that is a really strong piece of form and Solomon Grey who was 3^rd that day bolted up at Ludlow last week. He's got the cheekpieces on for the first time to help him as well, but 4m round here looks right up his street. The race is probably a little stronger than I thought it might be, but I think he's got better with every run this season and as I say that 2^nd at Newbury is rock solid, so I think he has a fantastic chance.

 

Mr Snuffles - Looks like he will be outclassed here.

 

Optimised - Won a hunter chase at Bangor in 2019 and was 1L 2^nd to Southfield Theatre in this race in 2019. He also ran well enough in this last year when 6th, but he hasn't looked in any sort of form this season and whilst coming back to this race might perk him up it is hard to see him hitting the frame in the form he is in.

 

Popelys Gull - Shouldn't be anywhere near good enough to land a blow here.

 

Roc D'Apsis - Well beaten in the Grand Military Gold Cup last month and although he won a point a couple of months later he was well beaten at Kimble over Easter and shouldn't be good enough.

 

Sam Red - Regardless of the rest of his form he seems to love this race as he was 3^rd (albeit 27L behind the winner) in 2019 and then last year he was 2^nd beaten a length by Captain Cattistock. There is nothing remotely in the rest of his form to suggest he should be a player in this and he was 62L behind Shantou Flyer at Fontwell. Even so given his record in the race if you want to take a chance e/w I could hardly blame you.

 

Smoke Man - Comes here on the back of landing a hat-trick in points and he looks like he will stay this sort of trip and would be in better form than he was when he tried 3m5f last year. I really respect his trainer, but the form of those wins are someway below what some of these have managed and he will need to improve a fair bit to win this.

 

Verdict - Must admit that this race is a little stronger than I had hoped when I earmarked Give Me A Copper out for the race, but I still think he rates a fantastic bet at the prices. He has been running well all season especially at Newbury last time and he has been crying out for a stamina test which he finally gets. Shantou Flyer has a great record here and if he wins it wouldn't surprise, but his price is shocking as I don't think he achieved a great deal at Fontwell. If the stamina test and cheekpieces turn out to be what Law Of Gold needs then he rates the main danger to Give Me A Copper. Dawson City and Captain Drake need the ground to be overwatered in my view as both seem at their best with cut in the ground, but at least both will stay.

 

Give Me A Copper 3pts @ 5/1 with most bookies and 11/2 in a place (take up to 3/1)

 

8.10 

Across The Line - Syd Hosie has paid £28k for him at the sales a month ago and he looks a solid 120 horse, but you are going to need to be better than that to win this.

 

Cousin Pascal - Gave it a good go from the front in the Foxhunters', but faded into 5^th late on. I can't help but feel that he left his race behind him when running at the Festival where he didn't really have a great experience. He's good enough to win this, but I'm not sure he's going to be at his best after two tough races.

 

Peacocks Secret - Was 3^rd in this last year when he travelled really well into the race but didn't quite see it out as well as the two in front of him. Has been running consistently again this year and was suited by hold up tactics at Stratford when beating Zamparelli who went too fast that day. He then walked over at Dingley last time. He's got a place chance again, but this looks quite a hot race.

 

Stratagem - Was pulled up at Hereford on his hunter chase debut when Paul Nicholls' horses were running poorly so it wasn't a huge surprise when he put that performance behind him when bolting up at Ludlow beating Solomon Grey by 16L. That was hugely impressive and it was disappointing he got beat at Warwick a few days later. I did think that if Maxwell had kicked for home earlier though then Not That Fuisse wouldn't have caught him. Also it might have come soon enough after the Ludlow win. He looks a top class horse and should go close.

 

Wagner - Beat Cousin Pascal at Hereford and then benefitted from Adrian Du Pont falling when in total command at Wincanton. Still it was a good effort as he didn't jump as well as he had at Hereford in ground he would have found soft enough. I thought he gave Bletchley Castle too much rope at Ludlow last time and he could never reel him in. Stepping back up in trip will probably suit and he has place claims here.

 

Ami Desbois - As I've already mentioned elsewhere he won a really hot form race at Newbury when beating Give Me A Copper who will hopefully have given the form a boost in the previous race. I actually think the slight drop down in trip might suit him as he looks to have plenty of pace based on the fact he's made the running on all 3 starts this season. There is no better trainer than Fergal O'Brien at knowing what horses to send hunter chasing and he proved it again with this horse. I thought his jockey gave him a good ride at Newbury and the 7lbs is going to come in handy as it means Stratagem has to give him 11lbs. A leading contender to make all.

 

Solomon Grey - He helped frank the Newbury form by bolting up at Ludlow last week and although he had little to beat in the end the time was decent and it was a good performance. He does have ground to make up on Stratagem and Ami Desbois having been 16L and 6L behind them at Ludlow and Newbury, but he looked like he might have come forward again last week. I'm still not sure he can reverse the form, but he clearly is one of the leading contenders.

 

Clondaw Westie - Ran really well to finish 2^nd in this last year and that came on the back of running a huge race to finish 4^th in the Aintree Foxhunters' and he was unlucky to lose at Stratford as he unseated Izzie at the last when looking the likely winner. Clearly trained for Aintree again this year he was in 2^nd when again unseating Izzie this time at the Canal Turn. This looks a stronger race than last year, but he could easily run well again.

 

Eeze A Saint - A bit of a dark horse as he came over from France where he fell on his last start in March last year. He then bolted up in a point at Bitterley at the beginning of the month where beat Master Sunrise by 22L. We can at least going back to his pointing form in 2019 where easily won an Intermediate to break his maiden tag. Chances are he is going to have to be very good to win a race like this, but he clearly has ability.

 

Midnight Cowboy - Ran pretty well at Fakenham last week when 3^rd to Not That Fuisse and whilst that gives him a form chance through that horse this is likely to be a very different type of race and he shouldn't be good enough.

 

Point And Sharp - Was awful at Kempton last time and will do well to get round here.

 

Verdict - This is a good race, but I really do think Stratagem has a class edge on his rivals. That Ludlow performance was one of the best of the season and he really ought to have won at Warwick, but even so if Not That Fuisse was running in this he would be one of the fancied horses. I do want Ami Desbois on side as well as that Newbury run was very good. This is the race with the most depth in it though as the next few in the betting all have some sort of chance as well, but I am going to have a small e/w bet on Eeze A Saint. I wasn't originally going to back him, but he clearly has ability and he's a much bigger price than I thought he would be so he can be added to the bets.

 

Stratgem 1.5pts @ 2/1 with William Hill and BetVictor 9/4 with Bet365 (take up to 7/4)

Ami Desbois 1pt @ 4/1 with pretty much everyone (take up to 11/4)

Eeze A Saint 0.25pts e/w @ 33/1 with everyone (take up to 20/1)

[Thornwick]

Nice write up Darren was at Askham Bryan when sine nominee ran jumped awful can't do that at cheltenham