Deutsche Bank Champs

[Plow-King]

Kevin Sutherland couldn’t finish off the job last week and tailed off for a tie for 16^th, when a Top 10 would have given a nice profit. Which is a little disappointing as I had hopes of him winning or atleast a top 5 after he was 2^nd after 36 holes. More frustration! But on to this weeks event…. The Deutsche Bank championship which for the last 2 years has been played at TPC of Boston. A high class field should be on show for one of the more prestigious events on the Tour. Looking at the stats for the last 2 years it is clear that players who can hit it far have a distinct advantage here and normally figure at the top end of the leaderboard. It also appears accuracy isn’t that vital either as wayward driving still leaves very makeable shots to the Green. The greens aren’t the toughest on tour either, so there is less emphasis on Putting. With all this in mind I intend to take a calculated gamble and exclude a lot of the shorter hitters when trying to look for the winner. Ideally I am looking for players who rank high on driving distance and high on ball striking and who have some sort of recent and course form. With all this in mind I am struggling to come up with players (apart from one), so will go for some long shots. <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com />

Ryan Palmer is the only player I can find that has ticks in all the right boxes. He has played this once before, in his rookie season last year and came 17^th. But that doesn’t tell the whole story, he was in the top 5 after his first 2 rounds and 9^th after the 3^rd round, but understandably fell away as the pressure got to him. That was his first time in contention in such a high calibre event. Since then he went on last year to win his first PGA Tour event at the end of last season and also challenged for a few more. So if he gets in contention I would be confident of him performing better than last year. Recent form is good, after a poor start to the season he has made his last 10 cuts. Including a 3^rd last time out at the NEC, a 2^nd at the BC Open and a 15^th at the International. And when he played this last year his form was patchy, 61^st in the Buick, 69^th in the Reno and 52^nd in the International. Stats wise, he is 51^st in driving distance for the season and has an all round ranking of 35^th. In the last 3 months, when he has come into form he is 31^st in ball striking and 38^th in GIR.

Secondly a player who hasn’t played this event before. Kevin Stadler is a player who has popped up on the leaderboard a few times this season only to go backwards very quickly. My main reason for looking at him is he has plenty of length off the tee which is needed for the course. In the last 3 months he is ranked 10^th for ball striking. I don’t really understand why he falls away so dramatically as he has won events on the nationwide tour. With this in mind I will be backing him top ten only.

Another who hasn’t played this course before but who’s game should suit, is Lucas Glover. His form has been very poor of late with 5 missed cuts in a row. But I would put that down to those courses being very tight ones where his inaccurate driving costs him. This course however should let him get away with that and give him shots onto the green. When you consider he is 19^th for ball striking and 29^th for GIR, It’s a testament to his approach play, which bodes well for this course.

Finally I will plump for Hank Kuehne as the journeyman of the week. Not a lot to say about this guy other than when he tonks it with the big stick it stays tonked! Some good results recently, with a 2^nd in the John Deere and a superb 4^th in the International, with some patchy stuff in between. He is another one of those hit or miss players and is just as likely to miss the cut by 10 shots as he is to contend. But in 2 previous appearances here he missed the cut in 2003, but was 6^th in 2004. That is more than enough encouragement for me that his length can carry him back in to the top 10 this week.

The bets

Ryan Palmer each way (1/5 odds 6 places) 80-1 Betfred

Hank Kuehne top ten finish 12-1 Stan James

Lucas Glover top ten finish 12-1 Stan James

Kevin Stadler top ten finish 22-1 Stan James

Additional :-

Ryan Palmer each way (1/4 4 places) First round leader 66-1 Betfred

[simonmountjoy]

Re: Deutsche Bank Champs Tiger Woods 3.15 (Win Only) pretty much every round he has shot here has been in the 60's (besides they will probably be ample opportunity to lay it on betfair at odds on) KJ Choi 66/1 (e/w) played well in Germany last week and this is the same style track (long & no rough) J Rose 66/1 (e/w) I backed Justin last week at 80/1:spank hopefully this week he will be all trousers and no mouth! John Rollins 150/1 (e/w) Course Form, hits it loooong, and due to start playing well to ensure he keeps his card