MickyG's Horse Laying Run

[MickyG]

Wow, cant believe it has been over 7 years since I have last posted on this site, it is good to catch up on what everyone has been doing over the last few years. Anyway I have been dabbling here and there and not really getting anywhere, so over the last few months I have been taking all the racing data I can and loading it into a database on my computer trying to come up with a suitable system. What I found was, that it is too easy to create a system based on back testing to give absolutely superb results then it bombs when paper trading it live on future events. So what I did was to keep on loading each previous days result into my database, and using the daily card downloaded in the morning and making the selections and then checking the results the next day and digesting what happened and comparing against the back data. What I also found was trying to select the horses manually there was too much emotion involved, especially when looking at the comments on the RP website, causing me to change selections last minute (at great cost as I always pick the winner ? most of the time). So I created a set of rules and let the computer select them for me based on the criteria., which I then use to lay the bets. The lay bets I place into the market at the price I want early morning and then set to KEEP, so it either gets matched pre-off or in play - or does not get matched at all. I just sit back and pull out the profit/loss spreadsheet from Betfair the next day and update my results good or bad. There are a few bets that don't get matched - either due to runners being pulled or just not getting near the odds at all.  The computer pulls a list of 40 runner's, some of which may be non-runners at the time of the bet, so I remove those when placing the lays. n reality I am looking for a strike rate of 87% upwards.

Initial testing was  a bit of a rollercoaster in terms of profit loss, but the bank did show a good increase. So now to try with real money and have fun whilst doing it.

Start bank £24.49

I will be using a ratchet system for the lays based on certain odds ranges (I based them of a £29 bank to start rather than £24 as I screwed up the spreadsheet formula, so will go with those for now).

1–3.5     1% bank     £0.29    
3.6–5.5   0.8% bank £0.23
5.6–8.0   0.6% bank  £0.17
8.1–11   0.4% bank  £0.12

Edit: I forgot to mention, BF commission rate is currently 2% (Basic package). Target for the thread would be double the bank or £100 depending on how it goes.

Edited October 21, 2021 by MickyG

[MickyG]

Day 1 Lay bets

Market	Selection	Bid type	Bet placed	Persistence	Odds req.	Stake (£)	Avg. odds matched	Profit/Loss (£)
Horse Racing / 20:30 Wolverhampton / 1m1f Hcap	Bakersboy	Lay	21/10/2021 10:02	K	6.4	0.17	Unmatched	Not Settled
Horse Racing / 20:30 Wolverhampton / 1m1f Hcap	Ritchie Valens	Lay	21/10/2021 10:02	K	5.3	0.23	Unmatched	Not Settled
Horse Racing / 20:00 Wolverhampton / 5f Nursery	Chanteiro	Lay	21/10/2021 10:01	K	10	0.12	Unmatched	Not Settled
Horse Racing / 20:00 Wolverhampton / 5f Nursery	Global Romance	Lay	21/10/2021 10:01	K	5.3	0.23	Unmatched	Not Settled
Horse Racing / 20:00 Wolverhampton / 5f Nursery	Sapphires Moon	Lay	21/10/2021 10:01	K	8.2	0.17	Unmatched	Not Settled
Horse Racing / 19:00 Wolverhampton / 1m Nov Stks	Ask Peter	Lay	21/10/2021 10:00	K	8.6	0.12	Unmatched	Not Settled
Horse Racing / 19:00 Wolverhampton / 1m Nov Stks	Muzaffar	Lay	21/10/2021 10:00	K	7.4	0.17	Unmatched	Not Settled
Horse Racing / 18:30 Wolverhampton / 1m Nursery	Iconic Look	Lay	21/10/2021 09:57	K	6.8	0.17	Unmatched	Not Settled
Horse Racing / 17:30 Wolverhampton / 7f Hcap	Duty Beyond	Lay	21/10/2021 09:57	K	3.4	0.29	Unmatched	Not Settled
Horse Racing / 17:30 Wolverhampton / 7f Hcap	Matamua	Lay	21/10/2021 09:56	K	9.8	0.12	Unmatched	Not Settled
Horse Racing / 17:30 Wolverhampton / 7f Hcap	Onaraggatip	Lay	21/10/2021 09:56	K	9.8	0.12	Unmatched	Not Settled
Horse Racing / 17:00 Wolverhampton / 6f Nursery	Poet	Lay	21/10/2021 09:56	K	7.2	0.17	Unmatched	Not Settled
Horse Racing / 17:00 Wolverhampton / 6f Nursery	Trail Hawk	Lay	21/10/2021 09:55	K	5.2	0.23	Unmatched	Not Settled
Horse Racing / 16:40 Thurles / 2m INHF	Recognize	Lay	21/10/2021 09:54	K	5.8	0.17	Unmatched	Not Settled
Horse Racing / 16:40 Thurles / 2m INHF	Chernikova	Lay	21/10/2021 09:54	K	2.88	0.29	Unmatched	Not Settled
Horse Racing / 16:05 Thurles / 2m7f Mares Hcap Hrd	Something Sweet	Lay	21/10/2021 09:53	K	6.2	0.17	Unmatched	Not Settled
Horse Racing / 16:05 Thurles / 2m7f Mares Hcap Hrd	Influential Lady	Lay	21/10/2021 09:52	K	8.4	0.17	Unmatched	Not Settled
Horse Racing / 14:55 Thurles / 2m Hcap Hrd	Frisco Queen	Lay	21/10/2021 09:51	K	7.4	0.17	Unmatched	Not Settled
Horse Racing / 14:20 Thurles / 2m Mares Mdn Hrd	Siobhans Pride	Lay	21/10/2021 09:50	K	10	0.12	Unmatched	Not Settled
Horse Racing / 13:45 Thurles / 2m2f Hcap Chs	Mezyan	Lay	21/10/2021 09:50	K	10	0.12	Unmatched	Not Settled
Horse Racing / 16:30 Newton Abbot / 3m2f Hcap Chs	Isla Di Milano	Lay	21/10/2021 09:49	K	9	0.12	Unmatched	Not Settled
Horse Racing / 16:30 Newton Abbot / 3m2f Hcap Chs	Dorado Dollar	Lay	21/10/2021 09:49	K	4.9	0.23	Unmatched	Not Settled
Horse Racing / 15:23 Newton Abbot / 2m5f Hcap Chs	Itacare	Lay	21/10/2021 09:47	K	5.5	0.23	Unmatched	Not Settled
Horse Racing / 14:13 Newton Abbot / 2m5f Hcap Hrd	Investment Manager	Lay	21/10/2021 09:46	K	7.4	0.17	Unmatched	Not Settled
Horse Racing / 15:50 Ludlow / 3m Nov Hcap Hrd	Tip Top Cat	Lay	21/10/2021 09:45	K	3.4	0.29	Unmatched	Not Settled
Horse Racing / 13:00 Ludlow / 2m Nov Hrd	Key To The Moon	Lay	21/10/2021 09:44	K	9	0.12	Unmatched	Not Settled
Horse Racing / 17:20 Carlisle / 2m4f Hcap Hrd	Fernhill Dane	Lay	21/10/2021 09:43	K	9.2	0.12	Unmatched	Not Settled
Horse Racing / 17:20 Carlisle / 2m4f Hcap Hrd	Very Patient	Lay	21/10/2021 09:42	K	8.4	0.12	Unmatched	Not Settled
Horse Racing / 16:50 Carlisle / 2m4f Hcap Hrd	Elusive Red	Lay	21/10/2021 09:42	K	8.8	0.12	Unmatched	Not Settled
Horse Racing / 16:50 Carlisle / 2m4f Hcap Hrd	Contrebasse	Lay	21/10/2021 09:41	K	7.4	0.17	Unmatched	Not Settled
Horse Racing / 13:55 Carlisle / 2m4f Nov Hrd	Largy Fix	Lay	21/10/2021 09:40	K	9.8	0.12	Unmatched	Not Settled
Horse Racing / 13:55 Carlisle / 2m4f Nov Hrd	Everyday Champagne	Lay	21/10/2021 09:39	K	9.8	0.12	Unmatched	Not Settled