Staking Plan Discussions (singles v doubles or trebles etc.)

[harry_rag]

I've started this thread for any general discussions or queries that may arise over time but, specifically, to continue the discussion that started here, on @Xtc12's excellent thread.

I'm conscious of hijacking that thread further for discussion of the nuts and bolts of the staking plan so I though if anyone did have the will to discuss it any more, we could stick it in here. I'm just running something through a spreadsheet now as my curiosity has been piqued. I'll post shortly.

[harry_rag]

Here's some observations on singles v "simple" trebles based on 180 selections in the 4-6 cards market in football. 90 of the games saw 4-6 cards which is always priced at odds against. For the sake of this exercise we'll assume all the games were 6/5 (perhaps slightly generous). We'll also assume I placed 3 bets every day so we can compare backing 3 singles every day to just having 1 treble.

Singles is nice and easy, a 50% strike rate so 90 winners at 6/5 from 180 bets, 1 point stakes show a profit of 18 points with an ROI of 10%.

There would have been 6 winning trebles out of 60,1 point stakes showing a profit of 3.89 points with an ROI of 2.16%.

6 trebles is less than you'd expect in the long run from a 50% strike rate for the individual selections. Getting 6/5 about a "true" even money shot equates to a 10% edge as reflected in the ROI for the singles. Getting 10.648 about trebles that should be only 7/1 offers a 33.1% edge so that's what the expected ROI would be over a large enough sample. We can expect 7.5 winners from every 60 trebles (15 from every 120 if you want whole numbers) which would, indeed, give an ROI of 33.1%.

So that illustrates why trebles beats singles in terms of value assuming we're beating the odds in the first place. Now to run those selections through the "Three day trebles" staking plan!