Hunter Chase - 4.15 Ludlow

[Darran]

I fear a 9 runner race could be the biggest field we see before Aintree given pointing is coming back on Monday. Ludlow have put up some decent prize money though for this contest which is also run for the Ludlow Gold Cup.

I have tried to find out if the Georgina Nicholls who trains Capitaine is actually the former wife of Paul Nicholls and whilst the Racing Post archive would suggest it is, it has been known to be wrong so it could be just a coincidence. Anyway at the time of writing they train the front two in the betting and I certainly prefer the chances of Copain De Classe. He has been off the track for over 2 years, but given the yard that shouldn't be a concern. His last win was off 130 in a Kempton handicap over 2m2f on good ground. You might remember he was due to run here at the start of the month and I was desperate to take him on, but that was over 3m on soft ground. This test will be very different and much more suitable. 

Capitaine ran OK up to a point at Wincanton and he should come on for the effort when 5th behind Caid du Berlais. He had been 7th in a point at Larkhill in December, but I suspect he just failed to stay that day. He has a chance, but he does seem a bit short in the betting based on his two runs for Georgina.

I have no idea why they are running Garde Ville over this trip especially round a track like Ludlow. He is a stayer and he got outpaced last time when finishing 2nd to Trio For Rio over 3m here earlier in the month. A drop back to 2m4f and good ground in a race that is likely to be run at a decent enough clip will see him struggle to go the gallop in my view. If he can keep up then he would have a chance of winning, but he wouldn't be for me.

Jenkins was beaten 70L at Doncaster last time, but that doesn't tell the whole story for me. He was actually in contention until making an error at 4 out and he was a doubtful stayer before the race anyway. That was basically his 1st run in a year as he unseated at the 4th at Catterick. His old form would suggest 2m4f on good ground on a flat track would be ideal for him and I can see him going well here if building on that Doncaster effort.

Zamparelli has had a wind op since running poorly at Barbury on his first start of the season in December. That would have to work for him to have a chance here, but his form for Dan Skelton would give him a squeak especially as conditions will suit.

I thought Guttural ran better than the bare result at Leicester last time when 5th behind Tango De Juilley. He travelled quite well into the race and ended up getting tired on bad ground which wouldn't have suited. I was considering putting him up as a bet as this test should be much more suitable, but I'm just not sure he is actually good enough to win.

Bletchley Castle is the likely front runner and he set a fast pace at Musselburgh 3 weeks ago before fading into 5th. This is a couple of furlongs shorter which should help him and his opposition wouldn't want to give him too much rope, but he had done his running before they got to 2m4f that day and I wouldn't fancy the horses in front of him in this contest. He's probably slightly over priced, but at the same time I would be surprised if he actually won.

Love Around won the point to point bumper at Stratford 2 years ago (ironically the 2nd that night runs at Chepstow today), but that wasn't a strong race and he pulled up in two Restricted's since then. Sam Cavallaro is now 15 and was a 43L 2nd to Arthur's Secret in this 2 years ago. This no doubt will be a prep run though as I am sure the hope is he can bid to win the 2m race on Cheltenham's hunter chase night for a 4th time having won it in 2015, 2016 and 2019.

The suspicion is that Copain De Classe will have too much class for his rivals here and he is the main bet in the race. I will also have Jenkins on side though as for me he ran much better than his finishing position suggests at Doncaster and this shorter trip is going to be much more suitable for him.

Copain De Classe 2pts @ 7/4 with Betfair

Jenkins 1pt e/w @ 8/1 with Bet365

[Darran]

It's rare I get something quite so wrong, but I can only hold my hands up and say I got this one badly wrong. The trainer didn't think Garde Ville would win over this trip and the jockey also thought he would struggle to win so why did he win? My thinking is he just turned out to be the best horse in the race and that he was able to keep up because he had the class edge over his rivals. He's clearly in good form at the moment as well which also helped, but if you have a class edge then you can get away with not having your optimal conditions. 

Bletchley Castle didn't go as hard as he did at Musselburgh and that certainly helped him at the finish to come 2nd. He'd need a fairly weak heat to go one better, but he could well find one. Guttural did find himself outpaced and he didn't get going until late on, staying into 3rd after the last. On this he needs a bit further, but it was a promising run which he might be able to build on with the caveat that this isn't strong form. Zamparelli looked like he might actually win at one stage and it was a more promising effort. I'd struggle to want to back Capitaine anytime soon and Love Around ran as well as he could have hoped. Like I say though I think the form is pretty weak and the winner won despite not really wanting this trip.

As for my two tips the less said about them the better really. Jenkins downed tools all to easy and was miles away from the horse who showed up well for a long way at Doncaster. Copain De Classe was well backed so clearly a good performance was expected. As much as he didn't jump well you can't help but think this wasn't his true running at all. Annoyingly the stewards clearly wanted to sod off home because they didn't get connections to explain the performance.

Needless to say there won't be a preview for the 3 runner race at Newbury today given we have a 1/10 favourite and I will be back for Ascot on Sunday.