Hunter Chase - 4.10 & 4.40 Leicester

[Darran]

Before I get to the two hunter chases at Leicester today I will have a quick look back at Fontwell on Sunday. It was a very good performance from The Galloping Bear who was well backed late on. I didn't think he would be up to beating Sametegal, but in the end I think he just stayed better than the favourite. The winner wasn't always foot perfect, but he looks a really strong stayer and it would be interesting to see where the go with him. The John Corbet Cup at Stratford could be an option for him. Sametegal has qualified for Cheltenham, but it seems like he will be going to Aintree now which was the original plan. He clearly didn't see the trip out and it has to put a big doubt on the Wincanton form in reference to Porlock Bay's chances at Cheltenham with the 3rd also beaten last week. Sonneofpresenting landed the e/w money and obviously in the end it would have been more profitable to have backed him in the normal market, but profit is profit. I thought at one stage he was going to drop backwards as Tanit River took up the running with a circuit to go, but he kept going for 3rd. I'm not sure he will be up to winning a hunter chase though and the same goes for Kashmir Peak. Speaking of Tanit River he ran a good race until he unseated at 2 out. He probably would have been 3rd, but it was a step up on his pointing form and he might be able to build on this. 

At Hereford it was good to see Tinkers Hill Tommy land the bonus bet with ease and although it was a weak contest he is clearly well handicapped.

Not sure why Leicester have decided to move the big race to the last race on the card, but first of all we have the maiden hunter chase at 4.10 so I will deal with that first. Fumet D'oudairies is the favourite and he looked a very promising horse last season when winning 4/4 in points. The times were decent as well and not many horses go through the grades like he does. In his last race a year ago he beat Getting Closer in an Intermediate and that one finished 2nd at Fakenham behind this ones stablemate so there is some depth to his form. Having watched the race he looked value for more than the 2L it was at the line. 2 of his wins were at Horseheath which I think is a good jumping test for a horse and his other two wins were at Cottenham which is a speed test so I don't have any concern about him over this trip (his maiden win was over 2m4f as well) and hopefully his jumping will be up to this test.

Captain McGinley has been well backed and I can certainly see why from an e/w point of view. We know his trainer is in red hot form and he showed up well for a long way at Wincanton which would suggest he wants the drop down in trip, but the rest of his form wouldn't really back that up especially his 2nd to Latenightpass at Cheltenham. Also as I mention above that Wincanton form has had all sorts of holes placed in it. The winner was beaten at Fontwell, the 3rd was stuffed at Doncaster and the 6th somehow managed to finish 3rd at Wetherby having been tailed off last week. He only beat Teeton Surprise by 5L although he did try to win the race which might have left him with nothing left late on. It was also his first run for over a year so you could possibly upgrade the performance, but the worth of the form concerns me.

I'm Wiser Now not surprisingly placed here last time as that is what he is good at. As I said in the preview and in the review he looks just the type of horse who will find something to beat him whatever grade his running in. No doubt he will run his race again, but hard to see him winning.

The Triple Pillar won a maiden point at Garthorpe a couple of years ago, but failed to finish in two Restricted's the following season. He then went under rules at the back end of last year and did run well in a novice hurdle at Warwick in September. After that though it wasn't so good and a mark off 112 looks on the high side. Even if it wasn't I think he would need to run to a higher mark than that to win.

Rebel Dawn Rising has only had 4 starts in his life and he won on the 3rd of them which was his debut for David Kemp. That was his only run in 2019 and he ran once last season when 2nd to Getting Closer in a slower time than the favourite win in on the same Horseheath card. I find it hard to believe that his trainer would run him in this if points were able to run at the moment and although he could go well he might need more experience before he is capable of winning a hunter chase. He has been the one for money this morning.

There has been money for Where Now at a big price, but given he is rated 87 I find it hard to think that connections wouldn't run him in a handicap if they thought he was capable of winning something like this. 

I think the race is between Captain McGinley and Fumet D'Oudairies and I am siding with the favourite as he looks to be very progressive and his yard can get one ready first time out as they have already proven this season. At the price he currently is though I will have a saver bet on Captain McGinley as we cover losses if he does happen to win which given I don't fancy anything else in the race seems sensible.

Fumet 'Oudairies 2pts @ 15/8 with BetVictor

Captain McGinley 0.5pts @ 4/1 with Bet365

The 4.40 is one of the richer hunter chases on the calendar, but I am a bit disappointed by the quality of the field given the money on offer. No doubting the class of the favourite Cat Tiger though and he does look like he will be very hard to beat. He hasn't been seen over fences in Britain, but he landed a Grade 3 over fences at Auteuil under his owner on 2018 and was a close 4th in a Grade 1 there as well. Both those came over today's trip and he looked promising over hurdles last season when starting life out for Paul Nicholls. Given his French form you would think he ought to be even better over fences and he has been given a wind op in the summer. I'm guessing he will be aimed at Aintree although he would need to run again before March 22nd to do qualify and finish in the first 4 on both occasions.

Killaro Boy was a very impressive winner of a hunter chase at Warwick in May 2019 on his first start for Henry Oliver and then he was beaten a nose in the Summer Cup at Uttoxeter that summer. After that he finished 2nd at Aintree in October the same year before finishing 8th in the Grand Sefton. He's not been seen since although obviously he can win off a long lay off. Like Cat Tiger though you would be thinking he could be seen at Aintree next month and he might find it hard to beat Cat Tiger here.

Tango De Juilley unseated at the 1st at Kelso after being off the track for nearly 4 years which was a shame. He was quite well backed before the off though so connections must have been expecting something decent. Like that day though it is hard to know what to expect and if Cat Tiger is at his best it is hard to see him beating him.

Straidnahanna was all about stamina when he was trained by Sue Smith and won the North Yorkshire National at Catterick in 2017. He was last seen running in Irish points and did win the last of his 5 runs over there. Back here for new connections and I would imagine this will be a sharp enough test and I couldn't see him being good enough anyway.

Another regional National winner is Henri Parry Morgan who landed the West Wales one at Ffos Las in 2018, but he was pretty poor after that and again hard to think he will have the speed for this.

Wes Hardin is on a hattrick after two pointing wins back in 2018 and it will be a pretty big surprise if he landed it after being off the track for 1009 days! They were fair efforts, but a fair way below the front two's form.

As much as I don't think he can win I reckon Dr Des could outrun his odds. He's never won a race over fences, but still has a rating off 120 and given how many horses pulled up at Warwick I thought he did well to finish especially as he jumped out to his right. Going this way round will help on the jumping front and it wouldn't surprise me if he was able to finish 3rd or 4th.

I think it is a hard race to get an angle on and win or lose I won't include this bet on the figures as only Bet365 offer the market but I am going to have a small bet on Dr Des e/w in the betting without the front two market.

Dr Des 0.5pts e/w in the betting without the front two market @ 11/2 with Bet365