Racing Chat - Saturday 25th April

Darran · April 24, 2020

Flemington and Rosehill are the two main meetings in Australia on Saturday. First of all the Rosehill meeting should have been at Hawkesbury, but has been moved because of the virus. Secondly it is Anzac Day which is a huge deal in Australia. I have bets in 4 races at both venues.

Flemington R2 (4.40am)

Lamu is a French import who ran an eye-catching race on her Australian debut at Sandown. She finished 4th over 1300m, but she flew home to be only beaten a length. At the 400m marker she had just one horse behind her and not surprisingly she ended up having the fastest last 200m in the race. Based on that and her French form he step up in trip to 1600m should be ideal for her. She was well backed at Sandown as well so someone was clearly expecting a big run. She has a good chance here.

The other bet in the race is Cryptic Jewel. She finished last in a G3 at Rosehill a month ago, but she had no cover and had to travel wide the whole way so I think it is safe to ignore that run. Prior to that she had run well in a G3 over course and distance when finishing 5th. Back into a handicap I think she is capable of showing better.

Lamu @ 16/5 with Betfair

Cryptic Jewel @ 13/2 with everyone

Flemington R4 (5.50am)

He might have top weight, but given he is a Melbourne Cup winner Vow And Declare clearly deserves it. I find it really hard to see him getting beat here. He has had two starts in G1 company this prep both over 2000m. First up he was a really good 3rd in the Australian Cup here and then 9th in the Queen Elizabeth a couple of weeks ago, but I would ignore that run as he had to do plenty of work early and it was his first run on heavy ground. Back up to a staying trip in a lesser grade on better ground is ideal for him. One thing they never really talk about in Australia is horses running from out of the handicap. Over here we would be all over the fact on two other horses are in the handicap proper, but they focus more on the weight they carry rather than what they should have carried. Both the next two in the betting Mirimar and Jack Regan should be carrying less weight in a true handicap and it is another reason why I am so keen on the top weight.

Midterm wasn't a prolific winner when trained in the UK and that has carried on Down Under, but he did run well last time and he might be capable of running better than his price.

Vow And Declare @ Evs with Bet365, William Hill and Betfred

Flemington R5 (6.25am)

There was going to be an odds on favourite for this and I was keen to take Russian Camelot on at the price, but he has been taken out. That does mean we have reduced odds, but there are 2 I like against the field. Betcha Flying was wide the whole way at Randwick in a G3 last time and was widest of all when they turned into the home straight. She stayed on nicely to finish 4th and although she is down in trip she had run well over 1600m in G3 company on her previous start at Moonee Valley. Back into handicap company here she looks to have a good chance.

Highland Jakk is the other one I like. He had finished 0.4L behind Russian Camelot at the Spring Carnival here in November when 3rd in Listed contest. Given the price difference there was between the two of them before Russian Camelot came out it was clear to me Highland Jakk looked value. He returned at Caulfield a couple of weeks ago when finishing a solid 5th. He should be fitter for that effort and there is a chance the soft ground was against him as well. He should be capable of better now especially up in trip.

Betcha Flying @ 4/1 with William Hill, Betfair and Betfred

Highland Jakk e/w @ 15/2 with William Hill and Betfred

Flemington R6 (7am)

The VRC St Leger is one of the few St Leger's in the world which is still only run for 3yo and this race is older than the Melbourne Cup. In recent years the winner hasn't gone on to do a great deal though so I wouldn't be expecting the winner to go on to great things.

The one I like the most is Scaramento who for me has the best form in the race having finished 5th in the ATC Derby at Randwick at the start of the month. He had to be niggled to make the running that day and had to work hard enough to get to the front so it wasn't a surprise he was over taken in the last 300m. Not only does he have the best form he looks set to get a very easy lead here and that could be crucial. This is a much easier race and he looks to have a top chance. His trainers have won this race the last two years and Gai Waterhouse also won it in 2013 and 2014.

There are a few here that are coming off the back of runs in handicaps or even maidens so there is a bit of unknown about how they will get on at this level, but the one I like most from those is Lindelani and she looks a bit of value at a big price. She looks every bit a stayer based on her runs so far. She finished really strongly at Sandown on Easter Monday and this trip looks sure to suit so happy to take a chance at a big price e/w.

Sacramento @ 5/1 with Betfair

Lindelani e/w @ 16/1 with Betfred (4 places)

Flemington R8 (8.10am)

Not having a bet in this race, but I am really interested to see how the ex Noel Meade trained Dadoozdart gets on. He looked really progressive last year in Ireland winning 3 on the bounce including the Ulster Derby in June. He seems to be well fancied in the market for this, but the quotes from connections after his wins in Ireland suggest a longer trip and soft ground would be much more suitable. I'm not saying he can't win, but I will be watching with the future in mind, because a longer trip and a bit of cut would be ideal for him. He has had 3 jump outs and has looked promising in all 3. It wouldn't be the biggest surprise if they thought he might turn into a Melbourne Cup horse.

Rosehill R3 (5am)

Was going to put 2 up here, but McCormack is a non-runner so just going to stick with Oxford Tycoon. Grand Piano is going to be favourite and does have a very good chance after a good run in a G3 last time after a win the time before, but I think Oxford Tycoon is over the odds at a double figure price. He was 3rd in the Provincial Championship Final at Randwick a couple of weeks ago where he didn't get the clearest of runs until around the 350m mark where he stayed on well widest of all. He was backed that day as well so a big run was expected. He has only won over 1100m, but the the run over 1400m suggests he shouldn't have any issues about 1500m here especially on better ground.

Oxford Tycoon e/w @ 10/1 with everyone (all 4 places as well standard e/w terms in Oz are 3 regardless of 16 or more runners)

Rosehill R4 (5.35am)

In Her Time has had a fantastic career winning 9 of her 30 starts and I think she can end her racing life with a win in the G3 Hawkesbury Crown. At her best she was a G1 horse and ran a good 3rd to Nature Strip at Flemington in November. This prep she ran OK in a couple of G1 contests and then was 5th in a G3 last week when getting very little luck in running. It was very hard to come from the back at Randwick last week as well which is what she tried to do. She flew home though and her last 600m was the 3rd fastest all day. That suggests to me she is still capable of winning a race like this.

I am going to have a saver on Bangkok who is in flying form at the moment having finished 3rd the last twice in a G3 here and then a G2 at Randwick a couple of weeks ago. They were both over 1200m and she had the 2nd fastest last 200m of the day here and then the fastest last 200m of the day last time. Up to 1300m looks ideal and she has a great record over this trip. I doubt she will be far away.

In Her Time @ 5/2 with everyone

Bangkok @ 9/2 with Betfair

Rosehill R6 (6.45am)

Indy Car would have been one of the selections for this given his two impressive wins the last twice, but he has been sold to race in Hong Kong so he has come out of the Hawkesbury Guineas. So instead I will just go with the one and that horse finished 2nd to Indy Car last time. I'm not saying Icebath would have beaten Indy Car, but she didn't get any luck in running at all. She got blocked at a couple of crucial stages and didn't get a clear run until 200m out and then she few home. She was never going to reach the winner as she had too much ground to make up, but she would have made it interesting with a clear run. She might well have been capable of reversing form and she should go close. Dawn Passage looks the biggest danger as he hasn't had a great deal of luck either in both starts this prep, but it is Icebath for me.

Icebath @ 9/2 with Betfair

Rosehill R7 (7.20am)

The Hawkesbury Gold Cup looks competitive, but I think Amangiri can bounce back after a disappointing run last time. I didn't think she got the best of rides last time as she had to work hard to get to the lead and in G1 company on testing ground that was always likely to mean she had nothing left in the closing stages. She was a good 3rd 1st up in a G2 over course and distance a month ago and now she is in G3 company I think she will be able to run a big race. Crucially for me she has a great draw in 4 and she looks like she will get an easy time of things out in front when plenty of these need to be held up. Hopefully she can make all.

Amangiri @ 4/1 with Bet365