Hunter Chase - 5.05 Stratford

[Darran]

Final hunter chase before Cheltenham and we have an odds on favourite in Risk And Roll. He was impressive at Leicester having run a big race on his debut for new connections behind Shantou Flyer. This trip looks ideal and we know he handles testing ground after that Leicester win. Now he was value for more than the winning margin, but the form hasn't exactly worked out that well and the 2nd favourite O Ceallaigh was bang in contention when unseating. Given their running styles that day Stratford should suit O Ceallaigh much more than Risk And Roll. There are a few who like to be up there in this, but O Ceallaigh is likely to just play catch me if you can and if Risk And Roll gets as far back as he did at Leicester he might find it tricky making up the ground. To me this is a 5/2 the field race and as much as Risk And Roll might win he just looks a poor odds on shot all things considered.

O Ceallaigh has run since at Ludlow when being a well beaten 2nd in the end to Dieu Vivant. Back down in trip at a sharper venue looks right up his street.

Chase Me went through the pointing ranks last season and ended it by being well beaten in a couple of hunter chase which he didn't really have a chance of winning. One of them was the John Corbet Cup where he did make the running for a long way so it probably wasn't that bad a run. He reached a new personal best on his only start this season in January at Larkhill when beating Coco Live in a decent time. Now he did have soft ground form in Ireland, but he has avoided it over here so that does have to be a concern.

Fixe Le Kap has a rating of 138 and he has run OK to a certain extent since going pointing for new connections. The problem is his best run was over 3m6f at Cocklebarrow behind Sausalito Sunrise and the way he ran last time in the Coronation Gold Cup at Larkhill also suggested he needs a longer trip than this nowadays. He has a chance, but I'm going to pass him over.

Kerisper was way behind the favourite at Larkhill and it is hard to see the 4 outsiders having much of a chance. I can't work out why Neil The Legend is so short in the betting either. He showed little in 2 runs for Nicky Henderson last year although it was reported he had a breathing problem and he has had a wind op since. His pointing form is weak though having won just a poor maiden and being stuffed in a restricted. The wind op needs to have improved him a hell of a lot.

The only other one in with a chance for me is Soul Kaliber and he is quite interesting. He won 5 out of 9 points last season and seems reasonably progressive. His only run of this season came when put into open company for the first time in the race Caid Du Berlais won. He ran well as well until late on when class and fitness told. He is likely to hold a prominent pitch so again should be suited by the track. He won his maiden on soft ground as well so hopefully should be fine on that. For me only 5 look capable of winning it and as we have an odds on favourite it means there are some big prices e/w around and Soul Kaliber is the pick of those.

O Ceallaigh should be much closer to Risk And Roll in the betting for me and this does look a good chance for him to get his head in front given his running style certainly compared to the favourites so he is the win bet. As mentioned above Soul Kaliber ran well in behind Caid Du Berlias last time and also looks set to be suited by this track and he is the e/w play at 14/1.

O Ceallaigh 1.5pts @ 4/1 with most bookies

Soul Kaliber 0.75pts e/w @ 14/1 with most bookies

[Darran]

All the front runners wanted the lead, but not surprisingly O Ceallaigh won that battle and had a fairly easy time of it in the end. He had nothing left turning for home though and finished a pretty tired 3rd. I would imagine he might need a little break after 4 quite quick runs now, but he looks one to leave alone now. I thought it was a good ride on the winner as he made sure he made his move forward early enough so he didn't end up getting too far out of his ground and he clearly didn't want to give him a hard race so won fairly cosily in the end. He is set to go to Aintree next, but his jumping round there is surely going to be a concern. He made a couple of errors again today and the 4 missed fences certainly helped especially as they come pretty quick down the back usually and that puts pressure on jumping. The wind op has clearly improved Neil The Legend massively as it was by far and away his best effort yet. If he can repeat this then he can pick up one of these I would imagine. Kerisper ran a funny race as he was under strong driving at various times and in the end he came 4th. I think Soul Kaliber didn't like not being able to lead and I would give him another chance on better ground as I am not sure he enjoyed that either. Fixe Le Kap and Chase Me ran OK up to a point and might both need better ground. 

 

That is it now until Friday where we have the big one at Cheltenham plus one at Fakenham.