Hunter Chases - 3.58 Wetherby & 4.26 Musselburgh

[Darran]

The Wetherby hunter chase always attracts a strong field even if it doesn't have many runners and the 2020 renewal sees last year's Cheltenham Foxhunter winner Hazel Hill clash with Minella Rocco. I thought Hazel Hill made a perfectly respectable seasonal debut at Sheriff Hutton last month and it reminded me of his seasonal return last time around. It obviously told us nothing new, but it doesn't look like he has lost any of his ability. I just can't see Minella Rocco beating him as he is firmly on the downgrade and had very little to beat in the end at Warwick last time. I do find it interesting that Derek O'Connor is coming over for the ride though as it wasn't something I was expecting, but I can't see it making any difference to the result and I am firmly in the Hazel Hill camp.

The Scottish Foxhunter at Musselburgh also sees an odds on favourite in Southfield Vic. He won 4 on the bounce last year including 2 in 2 days at Newton Abbot and Fontwell. If the ground stays good to soft then it will be fine as although he has won on soft it seems he prefers better ground. The bigger concern is that he ran poorly on his seasonal return last season at Fontwell, but he his trainer says he is ready to run and this doesn't look the strongest race in the world. We know he stays and Natalie Parker gets on well with him.

Mr Mercurial is the only other one close to him in the betting, but I just can't have him over this trip. His ideal trip has always looked around 2m6f and he can get away with 3m as he did at Perth last season, but when going up to 3m2f at Kelso he was found wanting for stamina. He also ran really poorly in his seasonal return at Alnwick in December which is a worry. I would actually be pretty surprised if he won.

Band Of Blood was pretty useful for Dr Newland and won a handicap at Doncaster 2 years ago off 126. He didn't show a great deal after that albeit in some good races, but you get the feeling he is on the downgrade. It is his first run in a year as well so I think he can be opposed.

I can't really understand why Nine Altars is a shorter price than Buck Dancing. Off level weights Buck Dancing beat Nine Altars by nearly 7L at Alnwick back in December and since then he has been a 20L 3rd back at Alnwick and then was beaten into 2nd last weekend at Friars Haugh. He did finish in front of Mr Mercurial at Kelso in May, but that does stand out compared to his other 2 hunter chase runs including when 4th in this race 2 years ago.

Initially I thought Buck Dancing would be a non stayer although I think his poor effort at Taunton was probably in my mind and he didn't really see his race out that well that day. Also his 2nd to Earth Leader over 2m6f at Stratford in May was also in mind. Having looked more closely though I think he has a real chance of seeing this trip out. He certainly didn't seem to be stopping in his two handicap wins over 3m at Southwell and Perth in the summer and he stayed on well to win that race at Alnwick mentioned above. I am prepared to forgive his Taunton run and I think he has a good chance of hitting the frame.

Big Casino is coming a long way for this and his two runs at Larkhill this season don't look too bad. The 2nd to Earth Leader was good on his return and he was likely to be around a 15L 3rd to Virak last month when coming down at the last. He stays well so that isn't an issue and he might be capable of hitting the frame. The one thing that puts me off though is the fact he seems to need good ground and I just wonder if might be too soft for him even at Musselburgh.

I thought Border Breaker looked well handicapped when he went back handicapping last summer after running in points and put him up on all 3 times at Hexham, Worcester and Cartmel. Hexham he ran well over a trip on the short side for him against a very well handicapped horse. The other two times he was poor though and he seems a very moody individual. I also think he needs quicker ground than this.

Onto the bets then. First of all I like the Hazel Hill/Southfield Vic double which at the moment pays 2.34/1 with Bet365 although it is a bit higher with other bookies if BOG doesn't affect you. I am going to put up Buck Dancing to finish 2nd to Southfield Vic and also have a small e/w bet on him as well.

Hazel Hill/Southfield Vic 2pts double @ 2.34/1 with Bet365

Southfield Vic to beat Buck Dancing 1pt f/c

Buck Dancing 0.5pts e/w @ 14/1 with BetVictor (12/1 with Bet365 with BOG)

 

[Darran]

I will deal with the Wetherby race in the Road To Cheltenham Foxhunters thread so will focus on Musselburgh here. 

Mr Mercurial has been a superb horse over the years and proved here that he is as good as ever at the age of 12. This was his 9th hunter chase victory in 22 starts and he has won 5 points as well. I thought he wouldn't stay this far, but he wasn't stopping at the end which was a complete contrast to his run at Kelso last year. This was a big step up from his point effort and I am sure at the very least he will be going to Perth in the spring for the two hunter chases he won there last year. 

Southfield Vic ran perfectly well and given he came on for his first run last season I am sure he will be placed to add to last year's tally especially on better ground. Big Casino flew home having dropped out at one stage. Hard to know if that was through choice or if he was just out paced, but it certainly backed up his 2 point runs already this season. If he can keep his form you would have thought the 4 miler on Cheltenham's hunter chase night would be an obvious aim given he has a lot of stamina. This run also proved he can handle a bit of cut. Nine Alters pulled himself into the lead and gave himself no chance of staying. Buck Dancing was disappointing for the 2nd race running which is a shame and he is a long way from the horse we saw in 2019 at the moment.

The next race is at Ludlow on Wednesday.