Cox Plate

[Darran]

To have 2nd, 3rd and 4th in the Caulfield Cup and a fast finishing 2nd in The Everest was frustrating, but at least Mirage Dancer gave us a return at a decent price. The Spring Carnival moves to Moonee Valley and Saturday morning at 6.55 sees the Cox Plate. Winx has won the last 4 runnings so we now have a proper betting event with her retirement and it is a fascinating field even if we don't have anything of her class in the field. You can give around half the field a serious chance as well. The race will be live on Sky Sports Racing

 

Black Heart Bart - Caused a massive shock when winning the Group 1 Underwood Stakes at 100/1 at Caulfield last month. He then ran another cracking race when 2nd to Cape Of Good Hope in the Group 1 Caulfield Stakes again at Caulfield. Clearly re-found his form, but surely doesn't win this as a 9yo.

 

Avilius - On face value was disappointing when only 4th in the Caulfield Stakes, but the way the race was run was against him and he found himself why too far back. Was very progressive on in hist first prep in Australia and was 4th behind Winx in this last year on the back of 4 wins. He then stepped up again in his Autumn prep ending up winning two Group 1's at Rosehill. A little disappointing this prep having only won the Group 1 Colgate Optic White Stakes at Randwick in 4 starts. When I was watching him his race in the Autumn I thought he looked a Cox Plate winner, but the problem is he doesn't seem in quite the same form and I wonder if he is going to be quite good enough to win.

 

Kluger - His 2nd to Winx in the Queen Elizabeth in April stands out as top form, the problem is Lys Gracieux beat him in Japan last year and given that one has improved since it is hard to see him reversing the form. 

 

Harlem - On his day he has some top class form and the 3rd in the Caulfield Stakes was one of his better runs, but at the same time he has some really poor form at this level especially away from Flemington. He is easy enough to pass over.

 

Homesman - 2nd in last year's Caulfield Cup and was impressive when winning his first race since in a Group 2 here last month. Was then 2nd to Black Heart Bart before running home 6th in the Caulfield Stakes. As good as he is his form doesn't suggest he is up to winning this.

 

Kings Will Dream - This ex UK trained runner went off favourite for last year's Caulfield Cup only for him stumble leaving the stalls and find himself way too far back. I was pretty keen on him for that and he flew home well to finish 6th. He then ran in this race, but sadly broke down very badly quite early on. It was amazing he even survived let alone be able to run in the race a year later. His new trainer Chris Waller has brought him along steadily as  you would expect and on his 3rd run back he won the Turnbull at Flemington. That looks a strong form race given how the horses from that race ran in the Caulfield Cup last week. Granted he doesn't have the best of draws, but he should continue to improve and I think there is a real chance that he could give Waller and Bowman a 5th Cox Plate on the trot.

 

Te Akau Shark - Was very impressive when winning at Group 2 level in New Zealand in November and was a fast finishing 2nd in the Group 1 Epsom Handicap at Randwick last time. That was over 1600m and it suggests he will enjoy the step up to 2000m for the first time. The problem is that Group 2 win in New Zealand is the height of his achievements and he needs to improve again to land this.

 

Danceteria - The only British trained runner in the field and his 4th in the Eclipse would suggest he isn't out of this and he then went onto win a Group 1 in Germany. That was his last start though and he was forced to miss the Caulfield Stakes thanks to some mucus. I thought he had a chance in that and it is a shame we didn't get to see how he shaped up there. I can see him running well, but I'm just not sure he is going to be up to winning a Cox Plate.

Lys Gracieux - Duel Grade 1 winner in Japan including the Takarzuka Kinen in June on her last start. It was a very impressive victory and although the 2nd didn't do much for the form when coming over for the Arc I suspect the ground had a lot to do with that. The form of her 3rd in the QE II Cup at Sha Tin in April looks world class form and she does look like the one they all have to beat.

 

Magic Wand - Before Winx started her winning sequence it was Adian O'Brien and Ryan Moore who teamed up to win this with Adelaide in 2014. It was a hell of a ride given the poor draw he had and Magic Wand has drawn much better in 3. She is so consistent and ran another solid race when 2nd to Magical in the Irish Champion Stakes last time. If she runs to that level again then she is going to be hard to keep out of the frame. The problem is she hasn't won since Royal Ascot last year so there is a doubt about her actually getting her head in front.

 

Cape Of Good Hope - A former stablemate to Magic Wand landed the Caulfield Stakes on his Australian debut for his new trainers. Clearly if building on that he will have a leading chance here, but my concern is the form of the Caulfield Stakes given how the race was run and my feeling is Avilius will be able to reverse the form.

 

Mystic Journey - Connections are very bullish about the Tasmanian raiders chances and she was favourite for this race at one stage. She has won 11 of her 16 starts and was very impressive in the All Star Mile at Flemington back in March. Granted the race wasn't run to suit in the Turnbull last time, but even so I was still a bit disappointed with her 5th. The trip is still a concern as well so as much as I wouldn't be surprised if she did turn out to be good enough to win I am going to pass her over despite being my idea of the winner for a long time after that All Star Mile win.

 

Verry Elleegant - Her chances rely on the ground being testing and it doesn't look like that is going to happen. Won a Group 2 at Randwick earlier in the month, but that form is below what will be needed here and was well behind Avilius prior to that.

 

Castelvecchio - The only 3yo in the race and that means he gets plenty of weight. Was 2nd at Randwick last time behind a very promising horse in Shadow Hero and he has no worries about the trip. The question for me is if he is quite good enough to win this at the moment as the older horses look decent, but he has claims for sure.

 

Summary - I certainly wouldn't want to rule out Danceteria and Mystic Journey, but they both just miss out in my first 4 home. The main selection is Lys Graciuex. I know she is the favourite, but she is a worthy one and she does look on paper to have the best form in the race. Japan took the Caulfield Cup last week and they can add the Cox Plate in my view. 2nd in I am putting Kings Will Dream who I really do think is over priced and should improve on the Turnbull victory on his 4th start back from injury. Magic Wand is so consistent and I find it hard to see her out of the frame if she runs up to her usual standard. I am sticking in Avilius for 4th as he is better than he was able to show at Caulfield last time.

 

1st Lys Gracieux

2nd Kings Will Dream (e/w) (Betway, Betfair and Paddy Power are 4 places)

3rd Magic Wand (e/w)

4th Avilius

[blueboy199]

Ta mate. KWD is 28.0 for the win on Betfair exchange if you'd not checked.