2019 Cesarewitch H'cap - Tips & Trends

[richard-westwood]

Working loads this week so I'm trying to get into  good position for a value bet by Thurs when the final decs come online 

So I've taken the current top 34 runners and we can apply some filters to   chop the field down and hopefully arrive at a  couple of good bets 

First filter no all weather or national hunt last time ....not impossible but very very difficult for horse to do well in this .....so we lose 4  22 24  26  32 

Must have a good class rating last time ...pref  class  3 or above or decent race so we lose 19 33 34 

Next one is a bit ambiguous but no horse that ran over 14f last time seems to do very well in this ...maybe it's the 4f diff is just too much but there it is so we lose 7 10 11 13 8 14 17 19 20 21 25 30 31 33

So we now have chopped 34 runners to a much more manageable 14 runners !!!

Haven't even started on draw either as you really want to be drawn 22 or lower in this so there's a good chance a few more will cross off Thurs...but let's go further .....

You want an in form horse so at least top6 last time .....we lose 5 15 23 28 

So far we are left with 10 horses

Who dares wins 

Cypress creek 

Sneaky getawy 

Eddystone rock

carnwennan 

Couer de lion 

Themaxwecan

Distant chimes 

Timoshenko 

Seinesational 

I'm happy with that so far......will research more filters but I think draw will help too so it's looking much better .....But any  thoughts feel free 

 

[richard-westwood]

4 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Working loads this week so I'm trying to get into  good position for a value bet by Thurs when the final decs come online 

So I've taken the current top 34 runners and we can apply some filters to   chop the field down and hopefully arrive at a  couple of good bets 

First filter no all weather or national hunt last time ....not impossible but very very difficult for horse to do well in this .....so we lose 4  22 24  26  32 

Must have a good class rating last time ...pref  class  3 or above or decent race so we lose 19 33 34 

Next one is a bit ambiguous but no horse that ran over 14f last time seems to do very well in this ...maybe it's the 4f diff is just too much but there it is so we lose 7 10 11 13 8 14 17 19 20 21 25 30 31 33

So we now have chopped 34 runners to a much more manageable 14 runners !!!

Haven't even started on draw either as you really want to be drawn 22 or lower in this so there's a good chance a few more will cross off Thurs...but let's go further .....

You want an in form horse so at least top6 last time .....we lose 5 15 23 28 

So far we are left with 10 horses

Who dares wins    216 

Cypress creek  215 

Sneaky getawy 198 

Eddystone rock  211 

carnwennan 204 

Couer de lion   200

Themaxwecan  3yo 

Distant chimes   198 

Timoshenko   196 

Seinesational 187 

I'm happy with that so far......will research more filters but I think draw will help too so it's looking much better .....But any  thoughts feel free 

 

As you can see I've rated each of the 10 horses and the bottom 4 look outclassed tbh and sneaky getaway unless they improve significantly so that leaves 5

Who dares wins    216 

Cypress creek  215 

Eddystone rock  211 

carnwennan 204 

Couer de lion   200

On strict ratings it's currently a 3 horse race 

Who dares wins 

Cypress creek 

Eddystone rock 

Currently available at 20  25  25 ...do I need to go further 

Edited October 8, 2019 by richard-westwood