CC Draws Theory (MiniMart!)

[Hodgey]

Ok, here's a scheme I'm seriously thinking of having a go at from next week. There has been a few discussions on this board about it, and I've tried variations of it in the past. It involves backing every team in the Coca Cola Championship to draw until they do. Obviously to do this I will have to increase the stake after each losing bet so this involves a form of Martingale theory; hence it's a MiniMart! I'm aware of the dangers of Martingale and if a team starts the season with 13 matches without a draw it will certainly test my nerves as to whether I should continue! However, in the last 4 years each team has had at least one draw by November and only 3 or 4 teams have gone past the end of September until they get one. The rough plan would be to secure at least 324 units of profit by the end of September!

[Bruise Pristene]

Re: CC Draws Theory (MiniMart!) sounds good. Can you give us more details on starting stakes and how you will increase? so if a team draws, you wont bet on them again?

[spreadman]

Re: CC Draws Theory (MiniMart!) Sounds interesting, Hodgey....I tried a similar system last season, small stakes, (most of the time!), with success. Fortunately, never hitting the dreaded LLR,(long losing run), and luckily backing teams like Wolves and Leicester to draw. I will be using the system again, once the season is 'settling down', in 2 or 3 weeks time. If last years form can be relied upon, you have chosen the better league for draw results, with a lower goal average, so, hopefully more 0-0, 1-1 score results. Do you intend to stick with the same teams through the season, back teams that have not drawn for, say, 4 or 5 matches, or use previous 'draw habit' teams such as Wolves? It may help to post a brief explanation, with your Martingale staking plan, e.g. : 1, 1.5, 2.25, 3.37, 5.06 etc. Finally, a friendly word of warning...Rotherham, (obviously not a consideration this season), went more than 12 matches without a (score) draw, and in general, teams at the top and bottom of the table tend to have less draw results. Good luck, Mr.H, a test for your, hopefully, nerves of steel! :ok

[Hodgey]

Re: CC Draws Theory (MiniMart!) Sure Bruise. The starting stake is 6pts per team and the stakes will increase by 1.5 after each loss. The target is based on odds of 3.25 for the draw (although I think it'll be nearer 3.40). This way the longer the team goes without a draw, you get slightly higher returns. I may at some times reduce the stakes to just cover the minimum target of 13.50pts profit e.g if I feel the home win is nailed on. Thanks for your comments and good luck Spreadman. By my reckoning Rotherham drew on the opening day of last season so that would have been just perfect! The plan is to back all teams until they have drawn once and then ditch them. You're right in saying that the teams at the top and bottom tend to draw less often, however the tricky part is spot which teams will be there before the season starts. Judging by the season odds, it looks like Crewe and Brighton would be the teams to avoid, but in turn they may me more likely to try and settle for a draw if they are level going into the last 10 minutes of a game.

[Bruise Pristene]

Re: CC Draws Theory (MiniMart!)

What if you bet on all games on one team? Or against them?

Pos.	Team	Win			Draw			Loss
		bets	win	profit	bets	win	profit	bets	win	profit
1.	Sunderland	46	59,81	+30%	46	22,95	-50,1%	46	30,5	-33,7%
2.	Derby	48	55,61	+15,9%	48	34,95	-27,2%	48	38,63	-19,5%
3.	Wigan	46	50,49	+9,8%	46	38,6	-16,1%	46	33,7	-26,7%
4.	West Ham	49	50,85	+3,8%	49	35,6	-27,3%	49	44,75	-8,7%
5.	Preston	49	50,76	+3,6%	49	41,75	-14,8%	49	31,13	-36,5%
6.	Millwall	46	45,1	-2%	46	37,6	-18,3%	46	44,1	-4,1%
7.	Q.P.R.	46	44,93	-2,3%	46	35,9	-22%	46	43,13	-6,2%
8.	Stoke	46	44,5	-3,3%	46	31,7	-31,1%	46	49,12	+6,8%
9.	Ipswich	48	46,35	-3,4%	48	43,3	-9,8%	48	32,4	-32,5%
10.	Reading	46	42,5	-7,6%	46	40,75	-11,4%	46	39,4	-14,3%
11.	Sheffield United	46	42,33	-8%	46	41	-10,9%	46	41,11	-10,6%
12.	Brighton	46	41,7	-9,3%	46	37,8	-17,8%	46	46,56	+1,2%
13.	Plymouth	46	38,76	-15,7%	46	34,65	-24,7%	46	45,85	-0,3%
14.	Wolwes	46	37,78	-17,9%	46	66,45	+44,5%	46	27,13	-41%
15.	Coventry	46	37	-19,6%	46	41,3	-10,2%	46	44,91	-2,4%
16.	Burnley	46	36,88	-19,8%	46	48	+4,3%	46	36,24	-21,2%
17.	Leeds	46	36,66	-20,3%	46	57,1	+24,1%	46	35,95	-21,8%
18.	Watford	46	36,17	-21,4%	46	51,25	+11,4%	46	42,86	-6,8%
19.	Cardiff	46	35,62	-22,6%	46	46,75	+1,6%	46	40,2	-12,6%
20.	Crewe	46	34	-26,1%	46	44,55	-3,2%	46	43,4	-5,7%
21.	Gillingham	46	30,65	-33,4%	46	46,2	+0,4%	46	40,73	-11,5%
22.	Leicester	46	26,6	-42,2%	46	66,3	+44,1%	46	41,91	-8,9%
23.	Nottingham	46	24,9	-45,9%	46	53,95	+17,3%	46	45,31	-1,5%
24.	Rotherham	46	22,5	-51,1%	46	45,7	-0,7%	46	53,43	+16,2%

is this any good to you hodgey? its a table saying what state you woud be in if you bet on each team every game for a specified result. very interesting that if you backed wolves to draw every game last season you would have a 44.5% profit! I've worked out that if you bet every team to draw every game in the whole season (i.e.two "draw" bets per match) you would have a 147% loss !! but avoiding the top 10 would leave you a 34% profit

[brookes]

Re: CC Draws Theory (MiniMart!) very interesting system hodgey - but i do not like the martigale factor excellent table bruise - does the trend for the bottom 10 exist in the other english leagues ? i am considering a system of draws for the promoted teams in the EPL the main drawback of avoiding the top 10 is "knowing" the top 10 at the start of the season [i hope this comment does not sound sarcastic] cheers - will post my ideas for the promoted team draws later - this has been discussed previously

[Hodgey]

Re: CC Draws Theory (MiniMart!) I shall only be backing each team to draw until it does. Then I will discard that team. As they say on Blue Peter, here's one I did earlier at the start of the Swedish season.

Bookie	Date	Wager	Odds	Result	W or L	Bet	Return	P/(L)	Balance
Stan James	17-Apr	Landskrona v Malmo	3.50	0-1	L	6.00	0.00	(6.00)	(6.00)	L
Betfair	24-Apr	Malmo v Gelfe	6.43	3-0	L	4.65	0.00	(4.65)	(10.65)	L
Betfair	03-May	Hammarby v Malmo	3.38	1-1	W	13.50	45.66	32.16	21.51	W

[Hodgey]

Re: CC Draws Theory (MiniMart!) The MiniMart staking plan is only a minor drawback to this system! However, if there are enough draws early on it may be the case that I can close this system showing a reasonable profit without every team having actually had a draw. I actually did this successfully in Sweden and Norway back in April/May.

[spreadman]

Re: CC Draws Theory (MiniMart!) It would be a wise move to only back teams up to their first draw, and stop after 9 or 10 different winning team cycles, because if you backed every team from the start of the season the law of averages dictates that at least one of the remaining 'drawless' teams will be on the beginning of a long losing run. You may also have to have a 'stop loss' break off point if you are going to use a Martingale style staking plan. Excellent table, Bruise, which aptly illustrates the dangers of backing every or any team to draw, for a long period of time. Better to try and concentrate on 1 or 2 teams at a time, moving on to a different team after the first win, (draw result). Which is what it appears Mr.H intends to do...

[Hodgey]

Re: CC Draws Theory (MiniMart!) First one up is the early kick off: Sheff Utd v Leicester 3.33 Betfair 12pts. (All betfair prices will be net of commission). More to come later.

[spreadman]

Re: CC Draws Theory (MiniMart!) Hodgey...you're a braver man than me ! I'll be watching the Sheff Utd. match on Sky at 12 noon, (K.O. 12.45), with great interest - I was considering starting my "sell,sell,sell" spread betting system, a series of 3 trades selling total goals, shirt numbers and hotshots, but I 'll be paper testing for this match, as i feel Sheff. will have the upper hand, and will be keen to score. Obviously, on the first day of the season, we are trying to assess the unknown, but I feel you're draw bet is optimistic. I know that it is part of a progressive system, and any loss today should be covered by future bets, but do you intend to stick with Sheff. until a draw occurs, backing them away and at home? Or are you trying several teams at once, just in home matches? In the case of my "sell,sell, sell," system, I am covering losses with a progressive one point per trade increase when a losing trade occurs, and for example, would treat this weekends 3 televised matches as a "one betting " overall opportunity; in other words, I would be staking to cover any resulting losses, but the averages from last season suggest an overall profit for the three weekend games if I sell in all 3 matches and continue to adopt this 'ploy' throughout this season. I will be posting the outcome of this betting strategy on Monday, hopefully showing an early paper profit. Meanwhile, enjoy the games, and good luck, Mr. H. :ok

[Hodgey]

Re: CC Draws Theory (MiniMart!) Here's the rest of today's matches: Betfair 06-Aug Sheff Utd v Leicester 3.33 12.00 Stan James 06-Aug Crewe v Burnley 3.40 12.00 Betfair 06-Aug Crystal Palace v Luton 3.95 10.00 Betfair 06-Aug Derby v Brighton 3.86 10.00 Premier 06-Aug Hull v QPR 3.40 12.00 Betfair 06-Aug Ipswich v Cardiff 3.62 12.00 Betfair 06-Aug Norwich v Coventry 3.86 10.00 Betfair 06-Aug Reading v Plymouth 3.48 12.00 Betfair 06-Aug Stoke v Sheff Wed 3.29 12.00 Gamebookers 06-Aug Watford v Preston 3.30 12.00 Stan James 06-Aug Southampton v Wolves 3.25 12.00 Sorry about the formatting - don't have time to tidy up at the mo.

[Hodgey]

Re: CC Draws Theory (MiniMart!) Well well I couldn't have hoped for a better start! 5 out of 11 returns a profit of 70pts. Thanks for your comments and good luck again spreadman. The plan is to now ditch every team that has drawn today and only continue with the teams that haven't and increase the stakes to 9pts per team. However, I have to admit I'm tempted to call it a day now! Would be the shortest system ever! Results:

Bookie	Date	Wager	Odds	Result	W or L	Bet	Return	P/(L)
Betfair	06-Aug	Sheff Utd v Leicester	3.33	4-1	L	12.00	0.00	(12.00)
Stan James	06-Aug	Crewe v Burnley	3.40	2-1	L	12.00	0.00	(12.00)
Betfair	06-Aug	Crystal Palace v Luton	3.95	1-2	L	10.00	0.00	(10.00)
Betfair	06-Aug	Derby v Brighton	3.86	1-1	W	10.00	38.57	28.57
Premier	06-Aug	Hull v QPR	3.40	0-0	W	12.00	40.80	28.80
Betfair	06-Aug	Ipswich v Cardiff	3.62	1-0	L	12.00	0.00	(12.00)
Betfair	06-Aug	Norwich v Coventry	3.86	1-1	W	10.00	38.57	28.57
Betfair	06-Aug	Reading v Plymouth	3.48	1-2	L	12.00	0.00	(12.00)
Betfair	06-Aug	Stoke v Sheff Wed	3.29	0-0	W	12.00	39.43	27.43
Gamebookers	06-Aug	Watford v Preston	3.30	1-2	L	12.00	0.00	(12.00)
Stan James	06-Aug	Southampton v Wolves	3.25	0-0	W	12.00	39.00	27.00

Summary:

CC Draws Theory
Bets Placed	11
Units Staked	126.00
Units Returned	196.37
Profit	70.37
Yield	55.85%
Strike Rate	45.45%
Average Odds	3.52
Average Stake	11.45

Teams:

Brighton	14.29
Burnley	(6.00)
Cardiff	(6.00)
Coventry	14.29
Crewe	(6.00)
Crystal Palace	(5.00)
Derby	14.28
Hull	14.40
Ipswich	(6.00)
Leeds
Leicester	(6.00)
Luton	(5.00)
Millwall
Norwich	14.28
Plymouth	(6.00)
Preston	(6.00)
QPR	14.40
Reading	(6.00)
Sheff Utd	(6.00)
Sheff Wed	13.72
Southampton	13.50
Stoke	13.71
Watford	(6.00)
Wolves	13.50
Total	70.37

[spreadman]

Re: CC Draws Theory (MiniMart!) :clap for Hodgey.........and some very surprising results on the first day of the new season. Out of a random selection of 12 matches you would expect an average of around 3 draws, based on last season's stats., but as there were around 14 draws out of 36 matches, you would expect, on average, around a third of those 14 draws to be 'trapped' in your 12 random matches, that's 4 draws. You are wise to delete the winning teams that have drawn today, but as the number of teams left diminishes, so could your bank, as your stake is increasing after each betting cycle, especially if one or more of your teams 'decides' to be at the start of a long losing run. Next week there might only be 5 or 6 draws out of 36 matches. It may not happen, but I wouldn't like to see you chasing to regain the profits of today, a few weeks down the line. It's your system, none of my business, but although you may have been joking about stopping now and taking the money and running, it may prove, in hindsight to be the most wise action to realise the maximum profit yield. GL, Hodgey anyway, you have my best wishes....:hope

[Hodgey]

Re: CC Draws Theory (MiniMart!) I have decided that I will call this a day. I'm very happy with 70pts profit. Basically the target was 324pts but to attain this I possibly would have had to go anything up to 1000pts down (or bankrupt) first. Therefore to achieve 22% of the target without having ever been in a loss situation is too good to turn down. It will eliminate stressful losing runs in the next few coming weeks and as they say - profit is profit. I will definitely be back with this system again though. I think it has merits at the beginning of a league season - especially where the league has no sure favourites. Until next time.

[spreadman]

Re: CC Draws Theory (MiniMart!) Wise decision, Hodgey, the sign of a successful bettor is one who knows when to cut and run, regardless of how much or little profit you have made. :clap :ok :cheers

[evtherev]

Re: CC Draws Theory (MiniMart!) lets hope they dont all come in next round of games or you will be kicking yourself

[Hodgey]

Re: CC Draws Theory (MiniMart!) No I wont ev. Like I said, I've dabbled in this stuff before and I've been through long losing runs and I can tell you it pisses you off and tests your balls. And twice I've bottled it only for them to come in soon after. But this is a different situation though - I'm in profit and happy to call it a day there. I have plenty of other betting activities going on for me not to worry about this one anymore. Cheers for your interest spreadman. I wish you good luck in your sell sell sell system should you go for it.

[spreadman]

Re: CC Draws Theory (MiniMart!) :ok Thanks, Hodgey, glad I was paper testing the sell,sell,sell, system over the weekend, with TV match results of 4-1, 0-0,2-1,2-1. Will post +/- points figures tonight, am considering starting system with 'real cash' tonight on the televised match on Sky. The theory being, that with the 2 previous matches being paper losses, a win is 'due', though of course, this could be an indicator of a trend for higher scoring matches at the start of the season, and the game could be 3 goals plus. Last season, the max. longest losing run was 4 matches, though I didn't begin to paper test the sell,sell,sell, system until November, so not sure of the goal scores in the first few months of televised Sky matches. I'll keep us all posted! :hope