Hunter Chase - 5.00 Exeter plus P2P bumper

[Darran]

Ravished ran pretty well at Hexham and I thought he had the favourite beat at one stage, but turning for home the winner put the race to bed, although he did idle on the run-in. The winner probably wants softer ground and his jumping didn't impress again which is always going to be a concern, but I thought it was a solid enough performance as the 2nd ran his race. I'd imagine they might be considering Stratford for the winner and if they over water the ground again that will certainly help him although his jumping wont. Gran Paradiso ran well enough in 3rd but I'm not surprised he wasn't good enough to win. He should find a Hunter Chase though I would imagine. God knows who was backing Cave Hunter and he pulled up whilst the rest were outclassed.

The first thing to say about Exeter's Hunter Chase is that it is a disgrace that the rules allow a horse like Theatre Territory to run in a Novices' Hunter Chase. She was last seen on Grand National day running well enough in the Grade 3 Handicap Chase finishing 8th. She may not have won over fences so far, but it says it all that they have decided to nick a win in a Hunter Chase. I can't blame connections for running her it is the rules that need changing in my view. You don't need me to tell you that she should win this and she ought to win it very easily.

Kit Barry and Draft Pick should struggle. I initially was going to say the same about Master Sunrise, but he might well be capable of finishing 2nd. It was no surprise he was massively outpaced by Risk A Fine over 2m4f at Warwick last time, but he did plug on in his first run since September. He is hard work and certainly needs this trip. The other big thing is the jockey change as James King takes over and the 2nd in the John Corbet Cup reads well in the context of this contest. 

I'm All Set did well to win at Taunton a couple of weeks ago, but that was a pretty weak contest although he is at least in good form. I prefer the chances of Drumlynn though. I still can't believe he didn't win at Leicester when being done on the line by Asangy and it is interesting that Luke has given him a wind op which should help him see out this trip better. I think he has a fair bit of ability and although I'm not sure he can beat the favourite he looks the most likely to chase her home.

Barring accidents it will be a massive shock if Theatre Territory doesn't win. Drumlynn can chase him although I am also having a saver on Master Sunrise to finish 2nd as I think he is overpriced.

Theatre Territory to beat Drumlynn 1.5pts f/c

Theatre Territory to beat Master Sunrise 0.5pts f/c

Onto the first of 3 Point To Point bumpers of the season. This is a race for horses that have run in British points this season although some have since gone to pro trainers and one of those is the favourite Whenhellbrokeloose. I have watched the video of his win at Bangor and he looked very green and I wasn't keen on his head carriage at all. Now he is sure to improve with experience and the ground was pretty testing that day so the better ground might help to, but out of the 3 bumpers on the card he recorded the slowest time. He was then unsold at the sales and Alan King must have purchased him privately and he is running in his colours here. In my view the horse is as short as he is because of the trainer and whilst I am not going to say he can't win he looks awfully short based on what he has done on the track so far.

I don't really fancy the 2nd in the betting either Woodbrook Boy. Obviously it is interesting Shark Hanlon is bringing him over, but he is actually 0-11 with bumper runners in Britain in the last 5 seasons. He came over to run at the International Meeting at Barbury in December and won a maiden over 2m4f and then won back in Ireland the following month. In that race though he beat an exposed 11yo. He was then 3rd last time out. His form looks nothing special and he is the most exposed of these. If he gets smashed in the betting then that would be interesting, but on form he does little for me.

Mount Nelly was 3rd on her debut in a bumper at Barbury in February when losing out in a 3 way photo. The winner won a maiden point since and was then sold for £50k, whilst she was sold herself for £12.5k. The front 3 that day pulled a fair way clear of the rest and it looks decent enough form. Think the market will tell us the story though as the yard's horses are usually well backed if they are fancied. A bold show wouldn't surprise though.

Full Of Roque ran on the same Bangor card that the favourite ran on and he finished a 5L 2nd in a race that was 3 seconds quicker than Whenhellbrokeloose. That suggests their isn't that much between them and although I am not saying he will finish in front of him it is hard to see why the prices should be so different.

I don't really fancy Getabuck. He was well beaten in a point bumper on debut a year ago and then pulled up over 2m5f on his seasonal return, before finishing 2nd at Didmarton and then winning at Kingston Blount. They were both over 3m though so it has to be a concern that he is dropping back in trip.

Merchant House looks a bit quirky. He didn't handle a bend at Cotley and the swerved and unseated his rider approaching a fence. He was 2nd the time before that beaten 15L behind an impressive winner although he's been beaten since. On his debut he did win a bumper at Barbury, but the horse he beat has done nothing for the form since.

Spectacular Rival, Reflex Action and Western Whiskey all look to have a fair bit to find.

That leaves me with Grumpy Charley and The Galloping Bear who were 1st and 2nd in a bumper at Milborne St Andrew 3 weeks ago. The winning time was a good deal quicker than the other 2 bumpers on the card. I have watched the video and I was impressed with what I saw with Grumpy Charley. He looks to have plenty of speed and looked a bit green in the closing stages so there should be more to come. His very good jockey is able to take 7lbs off here so he is 7lbs better off with The Galloping Bear. The pair of them pulled 16L and whilst The Galloping Bear could well hit the frame, it is hard to see him reversing form with the winner.

For me Grumpy Charley has the strongest form going into this contest and there looked to be plenty more to come from him as well. We know he will handle the ground as it was good on his debut and for me he should be the favourite.

Grumpy Charley 2pts @ 11/2 with Paddy Power and Betfair

[Darran]

Going to add a couple of small without the favourite bets. Bet365 offer betting without the front two in the hunter chase and so I’m putting 1pt on mister sunrise at 13/2. As I mention above I think he’s over priced in the betting as I expect him to do much better than on his seasonal return and I would have as the 3rd best horse in the race.

in the bumper I have had 0.5pt ew on the galloping bear in the without the fav market on bet365 at 8/1. As much as I don’t think he can beat the main selection there is every chance he can still hit the frame at the very least in that market