Hunter Chase - 4.40 Kelso

[Darran]

One of the big Hunter Chases up in the north takes place on Monday with Buccleuch Cup at Kelso. For me it looks a two horse race. Beyond Gold will start a double figure price and is stupidly short at the moment. It won a dreadful maiden just over a month ago and would be a surprise winner. Longtymegone has won twice in 17 Irish points and looks very ordinary. Costly Dream should be 3rd in and hasn't done too badly this season and won a Restricted last time when Steel's Cotton was pulled up. That one and Whiteabbey have no chance.

Hardrock Davis has won a Restricted and an Intermediate this season and the in running comments in the form book ended with the word impressive for his last win last month. His 2nd the time before was behind Buck Dancing who looks a very exciting horse as he won a really strong Intermediate last week so to get within 8L of him wasn't a bad effort at all. Costly Dream was a further 12L behind in 3rd. He looks the only danger to the favourite.

Sir Lonica ran 3 times in Irish points in 2016 without winning and then came over here and ran and won twice last season. They were hugely impressive victories as well. He won his maiden at Sheriff Hutton by 25L and then the following month he won his Restricted by 20L at Alnwick. That Alnwick performance was particularly impressive as he recorded the fastest time on the card and clocked the fastest final circuit. He looks a hugely promising horse and the trip shouldn't be a concern. The only concern you could have is the fact he hasn't run for over a year, but his trainer is very good and as we saw with Seefood at Leicester he can get one ready. 

I am very keen on Sir Lonica here and rate him a strong bet. I am however going to also cover the bet slightly by backing Hardrock Davis as he is the only other horse who can possibly win for me. I also think Sir Lonica will go off odds on so he should drift so if he does win it might well end up covering the whole bet on Sir Lonica. If one of those two don't win I have got the race badly wrong!

Sir Lonica 4pts @ 5/4 with William Hill, Betfair and Paddy Power

Hardrock Davis 1pt @ 11/4 with Bet365 and most others  

[Lisa603]

I disagree with regards to Jane Clark's 10yo Steel's Cotton - i think the mare is value ew at 20/1

I think Sir Lonica is an extremely poor price at evens given the long lay off 

Going to do a a RFC with Hardrock

Good luck