Hunter Chase - 5.00 Ludlow

[Darran]

Another small profit to keep things ticking over. Fair play to Natalie for sitting on Virak who made a really bad mistake just as the race was starting to get serious. She did well to get the horse back on an even keel and the horse stayed on strongly to overhaul Queen Olivia late on. She bounced back to her best here and I guess in hindsight Lilly might have not gone for home as soon as she did. In Arrears was a massive gamble before the race which was a bit of a strange one given she would have had to find a lot of improvement to have beaten Virak and it clearly wasn't e/w money. Her chance was hindered by the fact Silvergrove tried to take her on for the running and she was doing too much in the early stages. Even so I am not sure she would have finished any higher up and she will need her sights lowered next time. Silvergrove looks to have completely gone and needs to go back pointing to try and get his confidence back.

Only 4 runners at Ludlow and the betting is quite tight. Delegate is just favourite at the time of writing and he was meant to run here last week but the stewards had to take him out. It is certainly an easier race and he has a better chance of winning. He was well fancied on his pointing debut in a race Optimised won and Bears Affair was 2nd so it was a hot little contest despite there being just 4 runners. He pulled up though and the jockey could give no reason as to why he was so disappointing. He won a Musselburgh Novice Chase last year, but I suspect that he was flattered by that and he was a beaten favourite next time before being outclassed in a Grade 1 at Aintree. He is the one unknown in the race really because if you forgive the Bangor effort then he has a strong chance, but also there is a big question mark over his current well being. 

Karinga Dancer has only run in points since Laura Thomas took over his training in 2016 and he has won 5 out of 13 which is obviously decent. Laura has ridden him in points and the jockey change will be a plus. He won on his seasonal debut over this trip at Cottenham although the race wasn't a strong one and he has been beaten both times since. At 13 I get the feeling one of the younger horses in the race will beat him. 

Sam Cavallaro has been a great servant for Heidi Brookshaw although he hasn't won for nearly 3 years now despite some solid placings in that time. He was a distant 2nd behind Arthur's Secret a couple of weeks ago and he achieved little there in my view. He should build on that, but I find it hard to see him winning.

That leaves us with Hidden Charmer who you wouldn't fancy at all if it was coming off the back of its rules form from last year when he was last seen going off a 66/1 shot in Stratford Class 4 Handicap in November. New connections have clearly improved him though and he was a massive gamble when he made his pointing debut at Brampton Bryan 8 days ago. He made the running and was just beaten by Knight Bachelor who was the favourite for the in for Philip Rowley team and was rated 138 under rules when he last race. That form gives him an excellent chance of winning this as it is the best recent form in the race. Ignore the fact he opened up at 8/1 as it lasted a minute and the price collapsed pretty quickly after that. The only real danger is Delegate if he can bounce back, but Hidden Charmer is the most likely winner for me and I think he will end up going off favourite and certainly less than the 9/4 he currently is.

Hidden Charmer 2.5pts @ 9/4 with Betfred, Betfair and pretty much all bookies

Edited April 1, 2019 by Darran

[Ken96]

KING DARRAN THANK YOU "MERCI"