Hunter Chase - 5.40 Ascot

[Darran]

Sometimes not having a bet can be just as good as winning bet and not backing Always On The Run at odds on turned out to be a good move. It is rare to get a truly run race when there are only 3 runners, but he set a good clip and Ravished ran out a good winner in the end. It was some improvement from his recent form to win his point prior to Wetherby and this was a step up again. It will be interesting to see where they go with him next, but he should add to this win at the right level.

Onto Ascot's race today and they have actually increased the trip from 2m5f to 3m. Virak is the odds on favourite and he should win this. He won two Hunter Chases last year at Ludlow and then the Walrus at Haydock. He then ran down the field at Cheltenham before disappointing at Newton Abbot although he isn't the first horse to now show his form after running in the Foxhunter. He has gone to Rose Loxton this season and he has easily won 3 points. I saw the first of them at Chaddesley Corbett over Christmas and he had Arthur's Secret back in 3rd. Now Arthur's has improved since then and needed the run that day, but it is still good form. He might prefer a little bit of cut in the ground, but the point wins have been on good ground this term so it shouldn't be an issue and his form is a cut above the rest for me.

In Arrears didn't beat much in the end at Exeter, but she was impressive in doing so. She is clearly progressing nicely and I under estimated her ahead of the Exeter race. She looks the most likely to follow the favourite home.

If Queen Olivia could repeat the close 2nd to Road To Rome on her seasonal debut then she comes right into this, but the issue is she has gone backwards now. She was a well beaten 3rd behind Arthur's Secret although that wasn't a bad run, but she was then pulled up at Parham. I would imagine there was an issue that day because it was too bad to be true and if she bounces back then she isn't out of this.

Silvergrove was well beaten on his first start for 22 months at Fakenham and there is every chance he will come on for that, but I didn't see enough in that run for me to want to think he has a chance in this. Flaming Charmer was sold for 18k in December and did win at Chepstow off 121 the month before, but he was poor over 3m at Wincanton and he has never won over this far. Every chance he will need this as well against fit rivals.

Virak should win, but the price isn't exactly exciting so I will take a couple of forecasts. I don't fancy Silvergrove or Flying Charmer so I can rule them out. I was initially going to leave Queen Olivia out as she looks to be going backwards after a good run, but even the Ludlow 3rd could well be good enough to finish 2nd and the Parham run was too bad to be true so I will save on her. In Arrears though looks progressive even if the Exeter race wasn't strong and she is most likely to finish 2nd.

Virak to beat In Arrears 1pt fc

Virak to beat Queen Olivia 0.5pts fc

Edited March 31, 2019 by Darran

[Noodle bowl]

Nice tipping Darren keep them coming once again 

Thank you