Hunter Chase - 5.35 Carlisle

[Darran]

An exciting finish to the Catterick race on Wednesday and a Hunter Chase which has really improved on quality in recent seasons. Diplomate Sivola and David Maxwell will have been glad there was an extra 30 yards to the race because the only time they were in front was on the line. It didn't look like he had won and he traded at odds against on Betfair in the photo, but won he had by the smallest of margins. I think it was a very good performance and he should be up to winning more of these. The Racing Post analysis and Racing TV on Twitter both mentioned he is in the Kim Muir, but he can't run it now he has run a Hunter Chase so it was pointless them mentioning it.

Path To Freedom ran a hell of a race to finish 2nd and was slightly unfortunate not to have won really. This was a big improvement on his Hexham run last year and he is clearly a progressive horse. He is entered in the Foxhunter, but surely the obvious target should be to win a Hunter Chase instead of over facing him at Cheltenham. They were miles clear of the rest who were headed by Wither Or Not. I think he hasn't stayed in the ground and he could be worth another chance. Dance Of Time was just behind him, but as I said in the preview he could be a pointer rather than a rules horse. As for the selection it was a shame he came down when he did, because I was perfectly happy with how he was travelling and he jumped well until that point. Dave Orton who wrote the RP analysis said he was off the bridle when coming down, but god knows what he was watching because he certainly wasn't. It was too soon to know how he would have got on, but every chance given the distance between the front two and the 3rd that he could have finished 3rd. It is a concern now though that he has fallen in 2 out of his 3 Hunter Chases.

Onto Carlisle's race on Thursday and we have another Maxwell runner in Road To Riches. He won the Lexus in 2014 and was 3rd in that seasons Cheltenham Gold Cup. He was also 3rd in the Ryanair a year later. Clearly he was the best horse in this race, but the evidence suggests he is nowhere near that level now. He was 6th in the Grand National which to be fair was a top effort, but it only gave him an RPR of 107 and he actually recorded a higher figure of 128 when 6th at Galway in August. He than ran over hurdles and was a well beaten 7th at Down Royal. Who knows how much ability he has still, but the evidence would suggest he is probably a 120 horse at best and this will be some test first time out as well so the percentage call is to oppose him for me.

Barrakilla won first time up last season on his first start for over 2 years at Bangor. I thought it was a really good performance that day to beat Wells De Lune as that when set a really strong pace and it was a good test. He was then disappointing at Warwick, but bounced back to finish 4th in the Aintree Foxhunters. You would imagine that is the target again and Fergal O'Brien really does well with his Hunter Chasers. He has proven he can get one fit as well and given what he did on his return last year I think he is the one to beat.

I thought Little Jon ran with some promise at Ludlow behind Road To Rome in January. He may have finished a 55L 5th, but he had no chance of staying the trip and he showed up well for a long way. Given it was his seasonal debut as well there is every chance he will come on for the run. The ground shouldn't be an issue and if the two at the head of the market disappoint I think he is the most likely to take advantage.

I didn't fancy Pass The Hat at all when he won at Southwell last season as his two runs in points were not good, but crucially the tongue-tie which was missing in those runs was back on and he managed to win beating Galway Jack. He didn't jump well that day though and neither did he when a long way behind Arthur's Secret last month. Maybe he will make me look foolish again, but I can't have him.

Rouge Et Blanc won a Hunter Chase at Lingfield over this sort of trip on this ground last season and then followed that up with a 2nd in the race that is at Leicester on Friday where the 2m trip was too sharp for him. His 1st Hunter Chase run last term was a good one though as it came in the Hereford Hunter Chase which was really strong form. His seasonal debut came in a point where he pulled up and at 14 you have to think he will come on for this, but a bold showing wouldn't come as a big surprise.

I have to side with Barrakilla here as form wise we know where we stand with him. Granted we can't be certain of fitness, but that Bangor performance was superb on his return last season so we know he can win after a break. We are guessing a bit when it comes to Road To Riches, but I think there is a fair chance the pick is the better horse at the moment. Little Jon could be the one to pick up the pieces should they both disappoint as I think he ran better than his finishing position at Ludlow suggests.

Barrkilla 1pt @ 13/8 with William Hill

 

[yossa6133]

Going to be a real test in the conditions (still raining?) even over two and a half.